Core Viewpoint - The recent OPEC+ meeting revealed an unexpected increase in production plans, indicating a shift in OPEC+'s stance on oil price support since 2022, raising concerns about future diplomatic negotiations [1][3]. Production Changes - The production increase plan exceeded expectations, with an additional adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day announced for June, accelerating the previous production schedule by three months [1][2]. Market Sentiment - OPEC's statement characterized the current market fundamentals as "relatively healthy," despite the significant increase in production, which may lead to downward pressure on oil prices [2][3]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The global oil supply-demand structure is transitioning to a "loose balance" state, with potential oversupply if OPEC continues to increase production, which could exacerbate downward pressure on the oil market [4]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodity market, anticipating that ongoing supply and risk events will keep international oil prices weak and volatile [5].

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 五一假期期间OPEC+超预期增产计划引发油市短时巨震，本次会议超预期的地方不只是产量超预期增加，而是 对于OPEC+自2 0 2 2年以来挺油价政策态度的转向和后续外交博弈的担忧。我们认为本次超预期增产主要与沙特 等主导国希望维持组织的纪律性以及将要到来的美沙外交活动相关。当前全球原油供需结构逐渐逆转并呈现"松 平衡"状态，若OPEC进一步增产则将逐渐呈现"供大于需"的现象，油市后续或仍存在压力。综合来看，在供给和 风险事件的扰动下，国际油价整体或仍偏弱震荡，若关税扰动下宏观经济读数趋弱的预期兑现则对油价形成新的 拖累。当前我们维持大宗商品市场表现黄金＞铜＞油的判断。 ▍ 事项： 2 0 2 5年5月3日，OPEC+宣布自愿额外减产的八个国家对之前的减产计划进行调整，引发油市巨震，布油下跌 1 . 5%并跌破6 0美元/桶关键点位，对此我们点评如下： ▍ 本次会议相较前次的主要变化： 第一，增产计划超预期。 在5月增产规模的基础上，6月进一步调整了此前的自愿减产计划，增加4 1 . 1万桶/日 的生产调整，相当于此前的增产配额时间表提前三个月。 第二，态度超预期。 一方面， ...