Market Performance - On September 3, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1] - Google shares rose over 9%, marking the best single-day performance since April 9, reaching a record high [1] - Apple shares increased by 3.8%, the largest gain in nearly a month [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July JOLTS job openings were 7.181 million, below expectations, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand [1] - Following the report, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply, continuing its depreciation trend, which benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold [1] Precious Metals Market - Spot gold rose by 0.78% to $3,560.67 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,621.80 per ounce, reaching an intraday high of $3,640.10, a new historical peak [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up 0.79% at 257.07 points, marking a record high for three consecutive trading days [1] - Spot silver increased by 0.78% to $41.20 per ounce, nearing the 2011 peak of $49.8044 per ounce [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocated for starting interest rate cuts this month, suggesting multiple reductions in the coming months [4][5] - Market expectations indicate a greater than 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [5] Oil Market Dynamics - On September 3, WTI crude oil fell over 2% to $64.19 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped nearly 2% to $67.81 per barrel [7] - Geopolitical tensions have driven recent oil price fluctuations, with ongoing conflicts affecting market stability [7] - Analysts predict that despite geopolitical factors pushing prices up, the overall supply surplus will continue to pressure oil prices, especially as the peak demand season ends [8] OPEC+ Production Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to maintain current production levels in its upcoming meeting, with a projected increase of 2.467 million barrels per day, although actual increases have been around 1 million barrels per day [8] - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ keeps production unchanged, it could support oil prices, but the market is closely watching for any signals regarding future production plans [8] Market Sentiment and Risks - The macroeconomic environment appears stable, with U.S. stock indices recovering despite previous declines [9] - Short-term oil prices may find support due to stable macro conditions and inventory drawdowns, but medium-term risks are rising due to seasonal demand declines and OPEC+ production plans [10] - The U.S. shale oil production's breakeven points are critical, with $60 per barrel for new drilling and $40 for existing wells, indicating sensitivity to price changes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent OPEC+ meeting revealed an unexpected increase in production plans, indicating a shift in OPEC+'s stance on oil price support since 2022, raising concerns about future diplomatic negotiations [1][3]. Production Changes - The production increase plan exceeded expectations, with an additional adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day announced for June, accelerating the previous production schedule by three months [1][2]. Market Sentiment - OPEC's statement characterized the current market fundamentals as "relatively healthy," despite the significant increase in production, which may lead to downward pressure on oil prices [2][3]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The global oil supply-demand structure is transitioning to a "loose balance" state, with potential oversupply if OPEC continues to increase production, which could exacerbate downward pressure on the oil market [4]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodity market, anticipating that ongoing supply and risk events will keep international oil prices weak and volatile [5].