投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ni 期货研究报告 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 5 日 原油周报 地缘风险升级 原油偏强运行 核心观点 原油：节前最后一周，随着地缘风险逐渐被市场消化，原油 溢价开始回吐。同时油市供需偏弱预期占据主导，导致国内外原油 期货价格呈现震荡回落的走势。其中，国内原油期货 2602 合约偏 弱运行，当周期价累计跌幅达 2.17%至 432.2 元/桶。目前来看，原 油市场依然被间歇性凸显的地缘风险和供需结构偏弱两大多空因 素来回拉扯，短期地缘风险或占据主导。 原油-SC 元旦小长假期间，美国三角洲部队突袭委内瑞拉首都并绑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多情绪回暖，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 < END > 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 | 获 | 取 | 每 | 日 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend on the night of last Friday, with futures prices slightly lower. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The macro sentiment weakened as the US September non - farm payroll data announced last weekend was significantly worse than expected [5]. - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak - bias, medium - term oscillation, and intraday strong - bias [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak - bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strong - bias, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Tuesday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price, and is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [5] Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - After the geopolitical factors became prominent, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillating and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. Benefiting from the sharp rise in European diesel prices, the demand factor is prominent, which drives the intraday strength of crude oil [5] Definition of Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak - bias, an increase of 0 - 1% is strong - bias, and an increase greater than 1% is strong [3] - The strong - bias/weak - bias only applies to the intraday view, and there is no distinction for the short - term and medium - term views [4]

Market Performance - On September 3, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1] - Google shares rose over 9%, marking the best single-day performance since April 9, reaching a record high [1] - Apple shares increased by 3.8%, the largest gain in nearly a month [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July JOLTS job openings were 7.181 million, below expectations, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand [1] - Following the report, the U.S. dollar index dropped sharply, continuing its depreciation trend, which benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold [1] Precious Metals Market - Spot gold rose by 0.78% to $3,560.67 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,621.80 per ounce, reaching an intraday high of $3,640.10, a new historical peak [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up 0.79% at 257.07 points, marking a record high for three consecutive trading days [1] - Spot silver increased by 0.78% to $41.20 per ounce, nearing the 2011 peak of $49.8044 per ounce [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocated for starting interest rate cuts this month, suggesting multiple reductions in the coming months [4][5] - Market expectations indicate a greater than 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points by year-end [5] Oil Market Dynamics - On September 3, WTI crude oil fell over 2% to $64.19 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped nearly 2% to $67.81 per barrel [7] - Geopolitical tensions have driven recent oil price fluctuations, with ongoing conflicts affecting market stability [7] - Analysts predict that despite geopolitical factors pushing prices up, the overall supply surplus will continue to pressure oil prices, especially as the peak demand season ends [8] OPEC+ Production Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to maintain current production levels in its upcoming meeting, with a projected increase of 2.467 million barrels per day, although actual increases have been around 1 million barrels per day [8] - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ keeps production unchanged, it could support oil prices, but the market is closely watching for any signals regarding future production plans [8] Market Sentiment and Risks - The macroeconomic environment appears stable, with U.S. stock indices recovering despite previous declines [9] - Short-term oil prices may find support due to stable macro conditions and inventory drawdowns, but medium-term risks are rising due to seasonal demand declines and OPEC+ production plans [10] - The U.S. shale oil production's breakeven points are critical, with $60 per barrel for new drilling and $40 for existing wells, indicating sensitivity to price changes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent OPEC+ meeting revealed an unexpected increase in production plans, indicating a shift in OPEC+'s stance on oil price support since 2022, raising concerns about future diplomatic negotiations [1][3]. Production Changes - The production increase plan exceeded expectations, with an additional adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day announced for June, accelerating the previous production schedule by three months [1][2]. Market Sentiment - OPEC's statement characterized the current market fundamentals as "relatively healthy," despite the significant increase in production, which may lead to downward pressure on oil prices [2][3]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The global oil supply-demand structure is transitioning to a "loose balance" state, with potential oversupply if OPEC continues to increase production, which could exacerbate downward pressure on the oil market [4]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodity market, anticipating that ongoing supply and risk events will keep international oil prices weak and volatile [5].