大排量摩托车市场增长

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隆鑫通用(603766):隆鑫无极擎动全球 老牌摩企启新程
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 02:26
Core Viewpoint - The company is initiating coverage on Longxin General with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 18.40 yuan, corresponding to a 20x PE for 2025, highlighting its strategic shift from low-end OEM to self-owned mid-to-high-end brands [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - Longxin has transformed its business model, with the "Wujie" brand contributing nearly 20% of revenue by 2024, enhancing pricing power and value chain positioning in the motorcycle business [1] - The acquisition of a controlling stake by Zongshen in 2024 is expected to create the largest motorcycle manufacturer in the industry, with a projected market share of 17% [1] - The complementary product lines and platforms of Longxin and Zongshen are anticipated to generate strong synergies, further boosting growth potential [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Performance - The demand for large-displacement motorcycles is rising, with domestic sales expected to increase by 20% year-on-year to 396,000 units in 2024, raising the market share of large-displacement motorcycles to 8.6% [2] - Longxin's "Wujie" brand has successfully captured market opportunities, launching competitive products like CU525, which has helped increase its market share to 14% in 2024 [2] - The company is projected to increase its market share to 16.2% within three years, with expected sales growth of 15%/10%/9% from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 3: Export Growth and Future Prospects - The export business of "Wujie" is thriving, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71% over the past four years, driven by partnerships with quality local agents and differentiated product offerings [3] - Europe and Latin America are identified as key growth regions, with expectations to capture 5% market share in Europe by 2027 and 2% in Latin America within three years [3] - The company anticipates maintaining a robust total sales growth rate of nearly 40% from 2025 to 2027 [4] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow by 15.3%/17.6%/18.4% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to increase by 69%/24%/21%, reaching 1.90 billion, 2.36 billion, and 2.85 billion yuan respectively [6] - The average PE for comparable companies is estimated at 20x for 2025, leading to a target price of 18.40 yuan for Longxin [6] Group 5: Market Concerns and Growth Potential - Despite market concerns about saturation in the domestic large-displacement motorcycle sector, there remains significant growth potential compared to markets like Italy, Japan, and Brazil [5] - The company plans to expand its product offerings to fill gaps in engine platforms and segmented categories, which could further enhance its domestic market share [5]
【摩托车系列深度第一篇】内销与出口共振,大排量引领向上
东吴汽车黄细里团队· 2025-05-07 14:33
Core Viewpoints - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by two key factors: exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with the latter transitioning from a tool to a consumer product [2][8][11] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 800,000 units by 2030 [3][77][80] - The overseas motorcycle market presents a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands, with an expected market size of 932 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant growth potential for large-displacement exports [4][8][11] Group 1: Market Overview - The annual motorcycle sales in China range from 19 to 20 million units, with small-displacement models dominating the market [2][15] - The motorcycle industry has undergone three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with a notable shift towards large-displacement motorcycles since 2020 [2][19][20] - The domestic sales of fuel motorcycles are projected to decline from 7.71 million units in 2019 to 5.44 million units in 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 28.8% [3][32] Group 2: Large-Displacement Motorcycle Market - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a growing consumer interest in this segment [3][41] - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is being driven by rising outdoor sports demand and the development of motorcycle culture, with a significant increase in motorcycle events and clubs [3][48][56] - By 2024, the share of 400-500cc models is expected to rise to 46%, indicating a trend towards higher performance and larger displacement motorcycles [3][63] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The overseas motorcycle market is projected to exceed 40 million units in 2024, with large-displacement motorcycle sales estimated at 3.44 million units, representing a significant growth opportunity for Chinese manufacturers [4][8] - In 2024, Chinese motorcycle exports are expected to reach 11.02 million units, with a 25.7% share of the overseas market, highlighting the potential for further growth in large-displacement exports [4][8] - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with a CAGR of 67.6% from 2022 to 2024, as domestic brands enhance their international presence [4][8] Group 4: Key Players - The leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market include Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, with Chunfeng expected to become the market leader in 2024 [5][9] - Chunfeng's motorcycle sales are projected to grow from 45,000 units in 2019 to 308,000 units in 2024, with a focus on large-displacement products [5][9] - Longxin's large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 21,000 units in 2019 to 108,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.6% [6][9]