Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market has significant potential, with overseas sales space being over ten times that of the domestic market. The core markets are Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of the global total capacity. Domestic brands have undergone a qualitative transformation in product strength over the past five years, with overseas market share currently below 5%, expected to accelerate from 1 to 10 [2][3] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global motorcycle market has a total capacity of 61.8 million units, with 3.59 million units in the 250cc+ segment, resulting in a penetration rate of 5.8% [4][5] European Market - The European motorcycle market is approximately 1.84 million units, with a focus on high-capacity models. The 250cc+ segment is projected to reach 1.08 million units in 2024, with a penetration rate close to 60%. The market is currently dominated by Japanese and European brands, but Chinese brands are expected to gain market share due to competitive pricing and improved product quality [6][30][36] North American Market - The North American motorcycle market has a total capacity of about 6.88 million units, with approximately 500,000 units in the U.S. market, primarily favoring models over 600cc. The 250cc+ segment is estimated to account for 90% of the market, with limited participation from Chinese companies [6][30] Latin American Market - The Latin American motorcycle market has a capacity of 6.26 million units, with a significant demand for larger displacement motorcycles due to geographical and climatic factors. The 250cc+ segment is estimated to have a penetration rate of 8%, with projected sales of around 500,000 units [6][30] Asian Market - The Asian motorcycle market has a total capacity of 47.55 million units, with a 250cc+ penetration rate of 2.8%. The demand for larger displacement motorcycles is expected to grow, particularly in regions with a large motorcycle base [6][30] Domestic Brand Performance - The three listed companies, Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, have a combined overseas market share of less than 5% in the 250cc+ segment. Their export volumes for 2024 are projected to be 6.7, 5.3, and 4.0 million units respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [11][15][29] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for 250cc+ motorcycles is characterized by rapid growth in exports, with domestic brands expected to increase their market share significantly. The current overseas market share for Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang is 2.08%, 1.65%, and 1.24% respectively, indicating substantial room for growth [15][29]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the motorcycle industry, with a specific buy recommendation for Chuanfeng Power (603129) [4]. Core Insights - The global market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is expanding, with significant growth potential in various regions, particularly in Europe, Latin America, and China [1][11]. - Domestic brands in China are enhancing their technological capabilities and product quality, allowing them to compete effectively in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The export of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles from China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected increase of 84.5% year-on-year in 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Mid-to-Large Displacement Motorcycle Market - The global motorcycle market is expected to reach approximately 61.8 million units in 2024, with around 4 million units classified as mid-to-large displacement (over 250cc) [11][12]. - The European market is projected to have a total of about 1.45 million motorcycles in 2024, with a penetration rate of 60-65% for mid-to-large displacement models [15][16]. - In Latin America, the market is expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 6.46 million units in 2024, with mid-to-large displacement motorcycles accounting for about 10% [22][23]. - The U.S. market remains stable at around 500,000 units, with over 90% being mid-to-large displacement motorcycles [30][31]. - The Chinese market is anticipated to see a 17% year-on-year increase in mid-to-large displacement motorcycle sales, reaching 368,000 units in 2024 [1][40]. 2. Domestic Brands Strengthening Capabilities - Domestic brands are focusing on technological research and development, improving product strength to compete with international brands [2][3]. - The import of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles into China is expected to decrease significantly, with imports projected at 46,000 units in 2024, down 63.9% from 2022 [2]. - The top five exporters of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles from China are Shengshi, Chuanfeng, Wujin, Zongshen, and Qianjiang, with a concentrated market share of over 80% [3]. 3. Competitive Advantages in Global Markets - Companies with strong technological, product, brand, and localization capabilities are likely to gain competitive advantages in the global market [4]. - Domestic brands are transitioning from reverse engineering to independent innovation, with several new multi-cylinder engines set to launch in 2024 [4]. - A comprehensive product matrix is essential for brands to meet diverse global market demands, with brands like Chuanfeng and Wujin actively expanding their product offerings [4]. 4. Key Focus Stocks - The report highlights Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle as key stocks to watch in the motorcycle industry [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry, despite being overshadowed by the automotive and aviation sectors, has emerged as a significant market with a scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan and an annual demand of around 52 million units, showcasing a successful recovery from deflationary pressures and becoming a positive case of "anti-involution" in the context of global manufacturing [5][11][17]. Group 1: Market Size and Dynamics - The global motorcycle market is larger than that of heavy trucks, buses, and rail transit, with a market size of about 1 trillion yuan, indicating substantial investment potential [5][12]. - China is the largest motorcycle producer, with annual domestic sales exceeding 5 million units and exports surpassing 10 million units, accounting for over 30% of the global market share [11][12]. - The motorcycle industry has historically faced challenges such as low-end positioning and declining domestic demand, but recent trends show a shift towards high-displacement motorcycles, with exports of over 35,900 units of 250cc and above motorcycles, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 38.6% over five years [17][21]. Group 2: New Consumer Trends - The rise of "new consumption" emphasizes self-satisfaction and experiential purchases, with high-displacement motorcycles becoming symbols of adventure and social interaction among younger consumers [19][21]. - The domestic market for high-displacement motorcycles has seen a significant increase in penetration from 1.5% to 7.5% between 2019 and 2024, driven by changing consumer preferences and outdoor activities [24][25]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands, particularly the "Big Three" (Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang), have captured approximately 60% of the high-displacement motorcycle market, with projected sales of 150,000 to 180,000 units each in 2024 [25][26]. - The competitive dynamics have shifted, with traditional foreign brands losing market share in the high-displacement segment, while domestic brands are gaining traction [32]. Group 4: Export Opportunities and Challenges - The export market for high-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 50,000 units by 2025, indicating a strong demand for Chinese brands abroad [27][28]. - However, challenges remain in terms of production capacity, quality control, and brand recognition, particularly in comparison to established players like Honda, which dominates the global market [33][36][37].

Core Viewpoints - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by two key factors: exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with the latter transitioning from a tool to a consumer product [2][8][11] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 800,000 units by 2030 [3][77][80] - The overseas motorcycle market presents a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands, with an expected market size of 932 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant growth potential for large-displacement exports [4][8][11] Group 1: Market Overview - The annual motorcycle sales in China range from 19 to 20 million units, with small-displacement models dominating the market [2][15] - The motorcycle industry has undergone three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with a notable shift towards large-displacement motorcycles since 2020 [2][19][20] - The domestic sales of fuel motorcycles are projected to decline from 7.71 million units in 2019 to 5.44 million units in 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 28.8% [3][32] Group 2: Large-Displacement Motorcycle Market - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a growing consumer interest in this segment [3][41] - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is being driven by rising outdoor sports demand and the development of motorcycle culture, with a significant increase in motorcycle events and clubs [3][48][56] - By 2024, the share of 400-500cc models is expected to rise to 46%, indicating a trend towards higher performance and larger displacement motorcycles [3][63] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The overseas motorcycle market is projected to exceed 40 million units in 2024, with large-displacement motorcycle sales estimated at 3.44 million units, representing a significant growth opportunity for Chinese manufacturers [4][8] - In 2024, Chinese motorcycle exports are expected to reach 11.02 million units, with a 25.7% share of the overseas market, highlighting the potential for further growth in large-displacement exports [4][8] - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with a CAGR of 67.6% from 2022 to 2024, as domestic brands enhance their international presence [4][8] Group 4: Key Players - The leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market include Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, with Chunfeng expected to become the market leader in 2024 [5][9] - Chunfeng's motorcycle sales are projected to grow from 45,000 units in 2019 to 308,000 units in 2024, with a focus on large-displacement products [5][9] - Longxin's large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 21,000 units in 2019 to 108,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.6% [6][9]