Tech Ideas 线 | 讨论会 12 曲凯 42章经创始人 莫傑麟 家族办公室资深从业者 核心议题 25 年－二级市场 年终复盘和 26 年展望 关键词 多月不 AT 硬件 Agent 他熟悉硅谷二级市场，我深耕国内一级市场。这种跨视角的对照，使得我们每次凑在一起，往往能碰撞出一些相对超前、也还蛮准确的结论（不少听众反馈，我 们在节目里的很多判断，后来都应验了）。 过去这一年，我们录了三期播客： 《世界怎么就「东升西落」了？聊聊二级市场与 DeepSeek+Manus 的热潮》 《硅谷 AI 大转弯与二级市场的牛市》 《「你觉得 AI 有泡沫吗？」——有》 从今年秋天开始，我们又把这种季度复盘，延展成了一个更小范围、更高密度的形式：Tech Ideas 线上讨论会。 每一期，都会由我、莫傑麟，以及几位长期研究产业 / 投资的朋友共同主持。我们会围绕近期的重点主题，邀请业内朋友们，一起进行小范围的交流讨论。在上一 期活动中，嘉宾的分享中也有不少有启发性、扎实的 insights。 今年的最后一场活动，我们想做一次更完整的收官与展望：复盘 2025 年的一、二级市场，并展望 2026，共同探讨今明两年的 A ...

Core Insights - The current market is in a "large model bubble" rather than an AI bubble, which may soon burst, but this will not pose a significant threat to the overall AI industry [1] - Large models are receiving excessive attention, with resources concentrated on building a single model to solve all problems, while smaller, specialized models will emerge to address specific issues more efficiently [2] - The AI industry is large and diversified, providing a buffer against the potential impact of the large model bubble bursting [3] - Hugging Face adopts a capital-efficient strategy, retaining half of its $400 million funding, contrasting with other AI companies that spend billions [4] Summary by Sections Large Model Bubble - Clem Delangue, CEO of Hugging Face, believes the market is experiencing a "large model bubble" that may burst next year, but this will not significantly harm the AI industry as a whole [1] Limitations of Large Models - Delangue argues that large models are not a one-size-fits-all solution, and smaller, specialized models will be more widely adopted in the future, as they are cheaper and faster [2] Industry Diversification - The potential bursting of the large model bubble may affect Hugging Face to some extent, but the AI industry is vast and diversified, which mitigates the impact on the overall sector [3] Capital Efficiency Strategy - Hugging Face has a unique capital strategy, having raised $400 million but retaining half of it, which Delangue views as a sign of profitability compared to other companies that spend excessively [4]

Group 1 - The narrative of cross-border technology collaboration between China and the U.S. has effectively ended, marked by significant withdrawal of Chinese capital from Silicon Valley and the implementation of the 301 Act [6][9][10] - The once-bustling Silicon Valley innovation centers are now largely deserted, reflecting a stark contrast to their previous vibrancy, with many Chinese-backed enterprises facing decline or operational challenges [7][12][13] - The rise of large models in technology signifies a new era in Silicon Valley, characterized by rapid innovation and a shift in focus towards growth and profitability [14][15][16] Group 2 - The current investment landscape in Silicon Valley is marked by a shift in capital logic, where high valuations and short financing cycles are prevalent, leading to increased competition among startups [26][27][28] - The challenges faced by Chinese entrepreneurs in securing U.S. venture capital are compounded by regulatory scrutiny and the need to distance from Chinese ownership to attract investment [32][33] - The ongoing evolution of the tech industry in Silicon Valley is driven by a blend of traditional innovation and the emergence of new narratives, particularly in AI and large models, which are reshaping the competitive landscape [36][37][46] Group 3 - The dynamics of talent acquisition and retention in the tech sector are changing, with professionals increasingly seeking opportunities that align with their ambitions and financial goals, often leading to a return to established companies [34][35][38] - The narrative of innovation continues to thrive in Silicon Valley, with a vibrant ecosystem of startups and established firms coexisting, despite the backdrop of geopolitical tensions [41][45][47] - The future of the tech industry in 2025 is anticipated to be promising, with ongoing investment and innovation expected to drive significant developments [49][50]

从大语言模型到推理模型。 文丨 贺乾明 但 OpenAI CEO 山姆·阿尔特曼（Sam Altman）的好心情很快就被打断。在他宣布 o1 全量上线的推文下， 排在第一的评论是："到底什么时候能用上新的语音功能？？" 他立刻反击："能不能先花几个星期感谢感 谢这魔法般的智能，然后再要新玩具？" 这位用户追着阿尔特曼要的不是什么新玩具，是 OpenAI 在今年 5 月就允诺即将到来的 GPT-4o 端到端语 音功能。在当时的现场演示中，这个新的 AI 声音自然、反应极快，还知道什么时候插话，让旁人难辨真 假。按官方时间表，上千万 ChatGPT 付费用户本将在几周内用上这功能，但一直被跳票到现在。 过去一年里，OpenAI 的产品都是类似的 "期货"：GPT-4 已上线一年多，OpenAI 的下一代模型 GPT-5 依 然没有发布迹象。OpenAI 今年初发布的视频模型 Sora 也没有大规模开放，到现在都只有少数被他们挑选 的行业人士实际用过。 行业第一的跳票一次次磨损着资本市场对 AI 大模型的耐心。一些中国科技巨头和大模型公司今年年中暂 缓训练基础模型，把更多资源投到应用开发，或把 GPU 算力租给外部 ...