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FICC日报:权重托底,上证50反弹-20251017
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Sino-US relationship is currently in a stage of game, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The market is supported by funds actively propping up heavyweight stocks, leading to a rebound in the broader market index. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Regarding the Sino-US relationship, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, expressing an open attitude towards equal consultations on the basis of mutual respect. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions and a potential meeting between leaders. In the spot market, A-share indexes closed in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10% to 3916.23 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.38%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.65% to 45952.24 points. In the futures market, the basis of the current-month contract converged upon expiration, and the trading volume and open interest of the IH contract increased [1]. Strategy - The Sino-US relationship is in a game stage, and attention should be paid to the leaders' meeting at the end of the month. In the market, funds are actively supporting heavyweight stocks, driving the broader market index to rebound. In the short term, the trends of large and small-cap indexes are differentiated, and the small and medium-cap indexes may continue to fluctuate and digest [2]. Macro - Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on October 16, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09%. There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and the margin trading balance [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IH contract increased by 5009, and the open interest increased by 6373. The basis data of different contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are also presented, as well as the inter - period spreads between different contracts [16][38].
午评:反弹意愿不强,时空共振还需等待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 13:01
午评:反弹意愿不强,时空共振还需等待 短线技术面:今天日生命线在3380附近,运行在其上才能看多。大盘日级别关键区域目前在3383-3344,在上沿之上运行才是强势,才会反复 上攻,失守上沿是转弱,失守下沿是走坏。就技术指标来说,目前周级别可上可下;日级别再跌会有反弹要求;日级别以下多分时可上可下。 午后看点:大盘收上3377可接受,收上3387为好,收上3397为强,至少要收上3370才行。 中长期态势:3月份周级别强弱分水岭在3335-3395,月级别强弱分水岭在3300-3350。运行在60日线上才能保持牛市开启状态,运行在250日 线上才能避免重回熊市。 早盘低开,振荡没有方向感。个股跌多涨少。早盘分型定式大盘和创指均为收阴(午后见盘中新高才会被扭转)。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天低点击穿了3347和日关键区域下沿,形成了15分钟底背离,收盘未失3347。调整空间基本到位了。周二五两天是关 键时点。接下来就看是一举收复日关键区域上沿还是反抽一下日关键区域上沿或5日线后再下来确认一次吧。站回3387才有转好可能,站回 3400可视为调整结束信号,调整的极限或会在3333附近"。早盘微幅低开,反弹意愿不强, ...