前一交易日收评：节后首日就是小寒节气自然时间窗。午评：后半段整体表现还是不错的，再攻4034的可能性在增大 午后见了盘中新高，最终收在4015之上，结果够强。个股涨多跌少。大盘和创指均按早盘分型定式报收了阳线。 大盘收出高开带缺口的放量大中阳，中期转强，短线多头优势明显。创指收出高开带分时缺口的放量大阳，中期转强，短线多头优势明显。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天走势符合"大涨大跌都难"的预判，收盘为多头掌控局面但优势微小。节后首日就是小寒节气自然时间窗，突破3988 才有再攻4034的可能，运行在3960之上才行，3945-3936一带已不容再失"。今天高开留下缺口，已站上了4007，收盘为多头掌控局面。目前再 攻4034的可能性已增大，但会否在近日突破不好说。当下的上涨是由量能推动的，一旦量能不济，调整随时会来。运行在4007之上为好， 3996-3986一带已不容再失。操作上，不失3996-3986一带可先搏短；无力突破4030-4034一带应先减仓。 短线技术面：明天日生命线在3964附近，运行在其上才能看多。大盘日级别关键区域大致在3961－3915，在上沿之上运行才是强势，才会反复 上攻，失守上沿是转弱 ...

1月4日（周日），黄金市场休市，现货黄金价格收报4332.45美元/盎司。 回顾近期走势，现货黄金自去年11月初开启上行走势，后续创下4550美元/盎司的历史新高，此后受芝 加哥商品交易所调整保证金相关措施影响，价格出现高位回落。 日内图表显示的技术指标呈现特定运行态势。4小时移动平均趋同背离（MACD）指标出现向上转动的 迹象；相对强弱指数（RSI）数值为52.85，处于中性区间，呈现小幅偏向区间上沿的运行状态。 从关键价位观察，当前市场关注的阻力区域集中在12月30日高点附近的4400美元/盎司，进一步上方的 阻力区域包括12月23日和24日低点所在的4445美元/盎司区域，以及前期已破裂的趋势线附近，该区域 现大致位于4500美元/盎司。 支撑区域方面，日内水平支撑位在4305美元/盎司附近，另有12月31日低点4274美元/盎司形成的支撑区 域。若后续价格进一步下行，12月初低点附近的4170美元/盎司区域将成为重要的关注节点。 当前市场的技术形态仍可能受到后续消息面因素的影响。若出现意外消息导致现有底部形态发生改变， 黄金价格可能进一步下探至4200美元/盎司附近区域，市场后续运行态势需结合价格变化 ...

前一交易日收盘点评"今天上攻中盘面凌乱，午前出现了跳水，午后有所回拉，收盘为多头掌控局面。接下来应以防形成短期高点为主，突破 3988才有再攻4034的可能，运行在3960之上才行，3936已不可再失，确保不失3920一线是底线"。今天高开后上攻力度不足，午后回落较大， 收盘为多头掌控局面但已优势有限。本周每天都很关键。明天几乎又是许涨不许跌了，突破3988才有再攻4034的可能，运行在3960之上才行， 3930一线已不容再失。操作上，不失3945-3936一带可先搏短；无力突破3977-3988一带应先减仓。 前一交易日收评：接下来应以防形成短期高点为主，运行在3960之上才行。午评：此种走势让人很不踏实，小心点冲高回落是必须的 午后见了盘中新低，最终收在3960之上，结果勉强可接受。个股跌多涨少。大盘按午后见盘中新低被扭转分型定式报收了小k线、创指按午后 见盘中新低被扭转分型定式报收了阴线。 大盘收出高开的带量小k，中期有望再次转强，短线多头占优。创指收出低开的缩量小中阴，中期有望再次转强，短线空头占优。 短线技术面：明天日生命线在3933附近，运行在其上才能看多。大盘日级别关键区域大致在3930－39 ...

午后看点：大盘收上3910可接受，收上3920为好，收上3930为强，至少要收上3900才行。 中长期态势：12月份周级别强弱分水岭在3920－4000，月级别强弱分水岭在3900－3960。运行在60日线上才能重回牛市状态，运行在250日线 上才能避免重回熊市。 前一交易日收评：二次探底结束，多将再次尝试回补3922-3931缺口，还需再接再厉 早盘高开，未见向下之意，见了向上之意。个股涨多跌少。早盘分型定式大盘和创指均为收阳（午后见盘中新低才会被扭转）。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天关键时点，折腾一番后，午后如愿冲上3894宣告了二次探底结束，收盘已是多头掌控局面。下周一多将再次尝试回 补3922-3931缺口。不可苟且，需再接再厉才行。运行在3900之上才好，3880一线已不容再失"。早盘小幅高开，留下分时缺口，在上下俩缺口 间犹豫，整体表现还可以但说不上强，只要3931缺口无力封闭就无法排除回补今天跳空的可能性，今天收上3909是最低要求，只有封闭3931缺 口后收上3930才够强。3954-3988一带是需警惕遇阻的区域。午后，在3890-3897之上才行，在3902-3908之上才好，冲击3914-3 ...

午后看点：大盘收上3900可接受，收上3910为好，收上3920为强，至少要收上3890才行。 中长期态势：12月份周级别强弱分水岭在3920－4000，月级别强弱分水岭在3900－3960。运行在60日线上才能重回牛市状态，运行在250日线 上才能避免重回熊市。 前一交易日收评：运行在3900之上才行，若量能跟不上还得防有所反复 早盘低开，未见向上之意，见了向下之意。个股跌多涨少。早盘分型定式大盘和创指均为收阴（午后见盘中新高才会被扭转）。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天高开留下缺口，多头在努力，成交量也有所放大，但反弹力度还不够，收在3900之上是好现象，也是已见底的弱信 号，收盘是短期多头掌控局面。周三五是本周的另外两个关键时点。继续看5月线和5周线间的振荡格局能否打破吧。若量能跟不上还得防有所 反复。运行在3900之上才行，已不宜再跌破3880一线，3922-3936是阻力"。早盘小幅低开，留下分时缺口，整体走势与昨天的光头阳太不搭 了，如果今天就这么不死不活地磨叽一天，那明天就必需向上才行了，今天收上3900还可接受，底线是不可失守3894，只有收上3920才好。午 后，在3901-3905之上才行，在3 ...

短线技术面：今天日生命线在3904附近，运行在其上才能看多。大盘日级别关键区域目前在3904－3893，在上沿之上运行才是强势，才会反复 上攻，失守上沿是转弱，失守下沿是走坏。就技术指标来说，目前周级别可上可下；日级别可上可下；日级别以下多分时再冲会有休整要求。 早盘高开，振荡没有方向感。个股涨多跌少。早盘分型定式大盘和创指均为收阳（午后见盘中新低才会被扭转）。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天总体偏弱，月k收阴，周k如期收阳，收上了3883说明多头没放弃，收盘位置为短期多头掌控局面。5月线和5周线间 的振荡有望尝试破局。在3845-3834之上运行才好，不再创新低了才行，突破3897才有止跌可能，3912-3922是看得见的阻力"。早盘小幅高 开，留下缺口，看得出多头在努力，整体走势还不错，出现了已见底的弱信号，但3900上方的抛压是很明显的，今天相对简单，犯怂就不好， 只有运行在3900之上才是好现象，在3896之上可接受，收盘不允许跌下3883，更不可跌下3867，成交量能否放出是关键看点。午后，在3875- 3883之上才行，在3889-3896之上才好，冲击3902-3922才强，不宜跌下3870-3864 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its pullback on October 17, dropping to $53.65 per ounce, down from the historical high of $54.86 reached the previous day, indicating profit-taking pressure in the short term [1] - Despite the short-term pullback, overall market sentiment remains defensive, supporting silver's strong operational range [1] - As holiday demand diminishes, market volatility is expected to ease, with a return to normal market rhythms anticipated next week [1] - The post-holiday arbitrage and narrowing premiums are likely to stabilize silver prices, while investors begin to take profits and institutional traders rebalance positions [1] - Ongoing safe-haven demand and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support the medium-term outlook for silver [1] Technical Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows signs of adjustment after forming a temporary top around $54.80, with short-term support at the $53.50 level, which is critical for the recent upward trend [2] - If the price breaks below this support, it may further test the $52.80 level; conversely, if it stabilizes above $54, it could challenge the $55 mark [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD are showing a bearish crossover at high levels, indicating a weakening short-term momentum, while RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to around 65, suggesting a moderate consolidation phase [2] - The silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited downside potential due to safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations, although post-holiday demand decline and technical pullback pressures may increase short-term volatility [2] - The overall outlook for silver in Q4 is expected to be characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the breakout of the $53 support and $55 resistance levels [2] Market Quotes - As of the latest data, spot gold is quoted around $4370 per ounce, while spot silver is at $54.31 per ounce [4] Trend Judgment - The current silver market is characterized by a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [7] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, which may influence silver pricing [7] - Technical indicators suggest that the K-line is operating near the lower boundary, with a support level at $51.30 [7] - MACD indicators are showing upward momentum, but market activity is decreasing, indicating a need for cautious trading and potential low-position long and high-position short strategies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities and gold, while suggesting caution for industrial products and bonds [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities: The macroeconomic outlook is generally positive for equity assets, supported by favorable indicators [2][7]. - Bonds: The macroeconomic environment is also favorable for bond assets, although technical indicators suggest a downward trend [2][7]. - Industrial Products: The macroeconomic perspective is negative for industrial products, with both macro and technical indicators indicating a downward trend [2][7]. - Gold: The macroeconomic outlook is positive for gold assets, with technical indicators showing an upward trend [2][7]. Technical Analysis - Equities: The technical trend for equity assets is upward, with a moderate valuation and current capital outflow [2][12][19]. - Bonds: The technical trend for bond assets is downward, despite a positive macroeconomic outlook [2][12]. - Industrial Products: The technical trend for industrial products is also downward, aligning with the macroeconomic view [2][12]. - Gold: The technical trend for gold assets is upward, consistent with the macroeconomic analysis [2][12]. Asset Performance Tracking - Historical performance of a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators shows a return of 9.47% for 2025, with an annualized return of 12.04% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations yielded returns of 14.15% and 5.90%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.65% and 9.68% since April 2006 [3][30][33]. Summary of Indicators - The article summarizes the scores for macro and technical indicators across asset classes, indicating a total score of 3 for equities, 2 for bonds, -2 for industrial products, and 2 for gold [21][22][23].

Group 1 - The market has shown a rare five consecutive bullish monthly candles, indicating a potential for further upward movement, with the critical level at 3860 not to be breached [2] - Major indices have reached new highs for the year, with the market closing above 3920, reflecting strong bullish control [2] - The daily technical indicators suggest that the market is in a strong position, but there are concerns about volume and potential adjustments if the upward momentum cannot be sustained [2][3] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for the market are identified at 3943, 3985, and 4006, while support levels are at 3912, 3906, and 3898 [4] - The long-term outlook indicates that the market must remain above the 60-day moving average to maintain a bullish trend, and above the 250-day moving average to avoid reverting to a bearish market [4]

Group 1 - The market has shown a rare five consecutive bullish monthly candles, indicating a potential for further upward movement towards previous highs, with a critical support level at 3860 that must not be breached [2] - Major indices have reached new highs for the year, with the market currently challenging resistance levels between 3907 and 4006, making trading volume a key factor for continued upward momentum [2] - The market is advised to maintain positions above 3890-3860 for short-term trading, with a recommendation to reduce positions if unable to break through resistance levels between 3943 and 4006 [2] Group 2 - The daily critical support level is around 3864, and the market must stay above this level to maintain a bullish outlook, with the upper range of 3860-3760 being crucial for strength [3] - For the afternoon session, closing above 3900 is acceptable, while closing above 3910 and 3920 is considered strong, with a minimum requirement to close above 3890 [3] - The mid to long-term outlook indicates that the weekly strength threshold is between 3855 and 3895, and the monthly threshold is between 3730 and 3810, with the market needing to stay above the 60-day and 250-day moving averages to avoid a bearish trend [3]