广发证券资深金工分析师 李豪 lhao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 基于宏观分析、技术分析下的大类资产配置最新观点： 权益： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体看多权益资产；技术层面，当前权益资产趋势向上、估值适中且 呈现资金流出状态； 债券： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多债券资产；技术层面，当前债券资产趋势向下； 工业品： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空工业品资产；技术层面，当前工业品资产价格趋势向下； 黄金： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多黄金资产；技术层面，当前黄金资产价格趋势向上。 | 资产 | 宏观分析层面观点 | 技术分析 层面观点 | 月度观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益 | 当前宏观层面整体利多权益资产 | 趋势向上 估值适中 | 看多 | | | | 资金流出 | | | 债券 | 当前宏观层面整体利多债券资产 | 趋势向下 | 看多 | | 工业品 | 当前宏观层面整体利空工业品资产 | 趋势向下 | 看空 | | 黄金 | 当前宏观层面整体利多黄金资产 | 趋 ...

前一交易日收评：月k收出了罕见的5连阳，已有再攻前高可能，3860一线已不容再失。午评：主要指数都已再创了年内新高，此时成交量能 否放出就成关键了 短线技术面：明天日生命线在3876附近，运行在其上才能看多。大盘日级别关键区域大致在3872－3767，在上沿之上运行才是强势，才会反复 上攻，失守上沿是转弱，失守下沿是走坏。就技术指标来说，目前周级别已有休整要求；日级别再冲会有休整要求；日级别以下多分时已有休 整要求。 明天强弱分水岭：3936；压力位：3943，3985，4006；支撑位：3912，3906，3898 创指强弱分水岭：3322；压力位：3296，3315，3348；支撑位：3251，3237，3226 中长期态势：10月份周级别强弱分水岭在3855－3895，月级别强弱分水岭在3730－3810。运行在60日线上才能保持牛市开启状态，运行在250 日线上才能避免重回熊市。 午后见了盘中新高，最终收在3920之上，结果够强。个股涨多跌少。大盘和创指均按早盘分型定式报收了阳线。 大盘收出高开带分时缺口的带量大中阳，中期强势，短线多头优势明显。创指收出高开带分时缺口的带量小中阳，中期强势，短线多头优 ...

前一交易日收评：月k收出了罕见的5连阳，已有再攻前高可能，3860一线已不容再失 早盘高开，已见向上之意，未见向下之意。个股涨多跌少。早盘分型定式大盘和创指均为收阳（午后见盘中新低才会被扭转）。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天小幅高开在关键位3869，意外收上了3876，月k收出了罕见的5连阳，收盘多头掌控局面。目前已有再攻前高可能， 成交量会否是关键。3860一线已不容再失，前高上方看得见的阻力在3907-4006"。早盘大幅高开，留下分时缺口，突破了前高3899，主要指数 都已再创了年内新高，大盘已在冲击3907-4006，此时成交量能否放出就成关键了，从月周级别看，今天都是宜涨不宜跌的，收在3899之上为 好，收上3918为强。午后，在3869-3875之上才行，在3882-3887之上才好，冲击3895-3907才强，不宜跌下3861-3855，不可失守3851-3844。操 作上，不失3890-3860一带可先搏短；无力突破3943-4006应先减仓。 短线技术面：今天日生命线在3864附近，运行在其上才能看多。大盘日级别关键区域目前在3860－3760，在上沿之上运行才是强势，才会反复 上攻，失守上沿是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has retreated from a high of approximately 1.1750, reflecting new selling pressure on the dollar due to potential government shutdown risks, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. labor market data and business activity indicators [1][5]. Technical Overview - The Euro/USD is attempting to break through the flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with technical indicators slightly rising near the midline. However, prices remain significantly above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a long-term upward risk [4]. - In the short term, the Euro/USD is generally neutral to slightly bullish, facing selling pressure near the 100-day SMA while the 200-day SMA (around 1.1690) provides intraday support. The pair is trading above the 20-day SMA, which is trending downward and about to cross with long-term averages [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.1690, 1.1650, and 1.1615, while resistance levels are at 1.1750, 1.1795, and 1.1830 [4]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 0.2% month-over-month decline in Eurozone Producer Prices, contrasting with a previous increase of 0.5% [4]. - The U.S. faces a potential government shutdown due to a budget impasse, which could delay or suspend the release of critical economic data, including the non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday [5]. - Upcoming releases include inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the U.S. pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for September [6].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, trading around $111,330, with market sentiment divided and lacking a clear trend signal [1][3]. Technical Indicators Analysis - Short-term moving averages show a slight upward trend, while long-term moving averages remain downward [4]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating low volatility and indecisive market sentiment [4]. - A bullish engulfing pattern has appeared on the daily chart, but low trading volume suggests limited buying interest [4]. - The MACD shows increased momentum, indicating a slight advantage for bulls in the short term [4]. Key Position Contest - The $114,000 resistance level is a focal point for both bulls and bears, with analysts warning that any rebound below this level could be a bull trap [5]. - The $108,000 support level is crucial; if defended, it may stabilize Bitcoin's price and potentially restore an upward trend [5]. - A noticeable decline in trading volume near resistance indicates insufficient buying momentum, adding uncertainty to the market [5]. Historical Seasonal Patterns - September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.33% from 2017 to 2022 [6]. - On September 8, Bitcoin has a 72% probability of closing lower, with an average decline of 1.30%, making it one of the worst trading days of the year [6]. - The performance on September 8 may predict the month's overall trend, with a 75% chance of a higher monthly close if it rises on that day [6]. Macro Environment Impact - The cryptocurrency market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest rates and tariff uncertainties [7]. - Key U.S. employment data could impact interest rate expectations, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [7]. - Rising UK bond yields raise concerns about inflation and currency devaluation, which could either drive funds into cryptocurrencies or lead to a decline in risk assets [7]. Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Recent market liquidity has decreased due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, but significant movements are occurring beneath the surface [8]. - A whale has sold approximately $4 billion worth of Bitcoin and shifted funds into Ethereum [8]. - The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has attracted institutional funds, with current holdings around 1.4 million Bitcoins [8][9]. Operational Strategy Recommendations - A cautious trading strategy is advised, focusing on key support and resistance levels for short-term trades [10]. - Long positions can be considered near $109,000 with a stop-loss at $108,500, targeting $110,500 [10]. - Short positions can be initiated near $112,500 with a stop-loss at $113,000, targeting $110,000 [10]. Ethereum Market Analysis - Ethereum is currently trading at $4,300, showing signs of a bottoming phase despite an overall bearish structure [11]. - A bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart suggests potential for a rebound, but the price remains under pressure from moving averages [11]. - Short-term trading strategies should focus on selling at highs and buying on dips, with specific entry and exit points outlined [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices due to lower borrowing costs and declining yields [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made a clear call for the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle, suggesting that the benchmark interest rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level [1]. - Bessent anticipates a series of rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, indicating that rates may need to be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points according to various models [1]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - FPG analyst Felix notes that gold prices are currently hovering near the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and have not been able to break through this level, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain positively inclined, limiting downside potential for gold [2]. - Another analyst, Chad, observes that gold has failed to maintain gains above the bearish 20-period SMA in the short term, indicating that buyers are still hesitant, with prices near the flat 100-period SMA and the 200-period SMA lacking direction [2]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bearish bias with resistance levels at 3369, 3379, and 3383, while support levels are at 3354, 3342, and 3332 [3]. - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock is currently trading at 53.75 HKD, showing a slight decline of 0.09%. The company is set to launch the Xiaomi Yu7 by the end of June, and Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Xiaomi's gross profit for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed previous forecasts by 10%, with operating profit projected to be 33% higher than expected due to cost synergies [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator for Xiaomi is at 59, indicating a neutral signal, while a composite of various technical indicators suggests a "buy" signal with a strength of 14. Multiple moving averages indicate a "strong buy" signal, although several oscillators show neutral signals [3]. - Short-term support levels for Xiaomi are at 51.9 HKD and 50.6 HKD, while resistance levels are at 55.4 HKD and 57.1 HKD. The current price of 53.85 HKD is situated between these support and resistance levels, indicating an unclear trend [3]. Recent Product Performance - On June 16, Xiaomi's stock experienced a decline of 0.65% two days later, while Societe Generale's bear certificates (56288) and UBS's bear certificates (56421) saw increases of 7% and 6%, respectively [5]. Investment Opportunities - For those looking to capitalize on Xiaomi's upward trend, Citigroup's call warrant (13765) is noteworthy, with a leverage of 12.4 times and an exercise price of 63.68 HKD. Morgan Stanley's call warrant (13597) has a lower implied volatility and a leverage of 10.3 times [6]. - Conversely, for those anticipating a downturn, HSBC's put warrant (14333) has the lowest implied volatility with a leverage of 2.9 times and an exercise price of 46.45 HKD. BNP Paribas's put warrant (14178) also has the lowest premium and implied volatility, with a leverage of 2.9 times and an exercise price of 46.55 HKD [6]. Related Assets - The following related assets are available for trading: - Citigroup Call Warrant (13765) with leverage of 12.4 - Morgan Stanley Call Warrant (13597) with leverage of 10.3 - HSBC Put Warrant (14333) with leverage of 2.9 - BNP Paribas Put Warrant (14178) with leverage of 2.9 - Morgan Stanley Bull Certificate (53165) with leverage of 7.8 - HSBC Bull Certificate (58043) with leverage of 8.4 - UBS Bear Certificate (56421) with leverage of 8.4 - Morgan Stanley Bear Certificate (61070) with leverage of 7.5 [7][8].

Group 1 - The market sentiment is currently in a state where short-term trends are favoring upward movements, with a focus on breaking key resistance levels [2] - The index has shown mixed performance, with a need to maintain levels above 3354 to sustain bullish momentum [3] - Key technical levels for the market are identified, with 3355-3335 being critical for determining strength or weakness [3] Group 2 - The market needs to close above 3357 for a positive outlook, with higher targets set at 3367 and 3377 [3] - The mid to long-term outlook indicates that maintaining levels above 3350-3380 is essential for a bullish trend, while levels below 3320-3350 could signal a bearish reversal [3] - The market is currently above the 60-day moving average, which is necessary to keep the bull market intact [3]

Group 1 - The market showed weakness in the afternoon, failing to maintain key resistance levels, closing below 3361, indicating a short-term bearish trend [2] - The index's performance was characterized by a small K-line and a bearish trend in the ChiNext index, raising questions about the potential for a mid-term recovery [2] - Key support level to watch is 3330; maintaining this level is crucial to avoid further declines towards 3300 [2] Group 2 - Short-term technical indicators suggest that the market needs to stay above 3355 to maintain a bullish outlook, with critical levels identified between 3357 and 3332 [3] - The strong and weak dividing line for the market is at 3394, with resistance levels at 3362, 3371, and 3382, and support levels at 3336, 3324, and 3310 [3] - Mid to long-term trends indicate that the market must remain above 60-day and 250-day moving averages to sustain a bullish phase and avoid a return to a bearish market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, supported by fundamental factors such as the downgrade of the US credit rating, ongoing geopolitical risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Price Movement Summary - On May 19, spot gold prices rose to $3236.91 per ounce, marking a 1.08% increase from an opening price of $3216.39, with a high of $3249.02 and a low of $3205.04 [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices near key support levels, indicating traders are awaiting clearer directional signals [3]. Market Analysis - The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's to "AA+" has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, causing gold prices to rise despite a broader market sell-off [5]. - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices fall below the $3170 support level, they may further decline to the $3100 region or even test the $3000 mark [3]. Trading Strategy - A trading strategy has been suggested to short gold at the current price of $3245, with a protective stop at $3251 and a target of $3207 [7]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of risk management and capital allocation in trading decisions, advocating for a cautious approach to avoid significant losses [7].