Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' research team emphasizes that interpreting and following China's Five-Year Plan could yield excess returns, introducing the "15th Five-Year Plan" investment portfolio [1][3]. Group 1: Five-Year Plan Goals - Since 2001, China has achieved nearly 90% of its quantitative growth and development targets across five Five-Year Plans [2]. - The details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) will be officially announced in March next year, focusing on high-quality, safe, and balanced growth, technology/innovation, and improving people's quality of life [2]. Group 2: Excess Returns from Policy Adherence - Goldman Sachs' Asia macro team has developed tools to analyze China's policy environment, which is more nuanced than other major markets due to data availability and quality [3]. - Historical data shows that the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index have achieved an annualized total return of 8-10%, slightly below the nominal GDP growth rate of 11% [3]. - By utilizing text analysis based on large language models (LLM), the research indicates that investors could achieve an annualized excess return of 13% by adjusting their portfolios according to overall policy trends [3]. Group 3: Redefining Excess Return Investment Portfolio - The Chinese stock market is extensive and liquid, with over 6,800 listed companies and a total market capitalization of $19 trillion [5]. - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team has constructed the "15th Five-Year Plan" investment portfolio based on 35 GICS sectors, focusing on industries expected to benefit from policy support and specifically mentioned in the plan [5]. - These sectors represent a total market capitalization of $13 trillion, accounting for 66% of the entire Chinese stock market, and include themes such as private enterprise return, overseas expansion, AI, anti-involution, and shareholder returns [5]. Group 4: Launch of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Investment Portfolio - Goldman Sachs has selected 50 mid-cap stocks (30 A-shares and 20 overseas-listed Chinese stocks) based on growth, valuation, and quality criteria [8]. - This selected portfolio has achieved a total return of 68% over the past year, compared to 35% for the MSCI China Index, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 26 times and a dynamic PEG of 1.0 [8]. - Market consensus predicts that the portfolio will have an average annual compound growth rate of 30% in earnings per share over the next two years [8].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive momentum with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.91% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.81% as of the morning of March 18 [1] - The Hong Kong Tech ETF (159751) experienced a gain of 3.28%, with a trading volume exceeding 55.88 million and a turnover rate of 11.8%, indicating active trading [1] - Notable gains were observed in component stocks, with WuXi AppTec rising over 13%, WuXi Biologics increasing by over 7%, and Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Bilibili each gaining over 4% [1] Group 2 - China AI Day, part of NVIDIA's GTC 2025 conference, will feature major domestic cloud and internet companies sharing advancements in large language models (LLM), multimodal large language models (MLLM), data science, and search promotion [1] - The event will include participation from companies such as ByteDance, Alibaba Cloud, Baidu, Ant Group, JD.com, Meituan, Kuaishou, and others, showcasing how they optimize AI performance and efficiency through hardware and software collaboration [1] Group 3 - Overall, external disturbances are stabilizing, and the spring market is expected to continue, driven by demand recovery and supply contraction leading to profit improvements and capital inflows [2] - The technology growth sector remains a primary focus, with a mid-term trend of confidence reassessment in Chinese assets expected to persist [2] - After a sustained upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market, the proportion of stocks above the 20-day moving average rose from 22.9% to a high of 90.4% on March 7, indicating a significant market breadth improvement [2]