Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]

2026 年 1 月 27 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4384 | +27（+0.62%） 4364 | | -31 （-0.71%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2769 | +10（+0.36%） 2768 | | +2 （+0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1060 | -7.5（-0.70%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 294 | -6.1 （-2.03%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3095～3150， 较昨持平至+10； 平或+10； 3月M2605+320， | 现货M2605+4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 22, 2026, was 1,324,408 tons, meeting market expectations, with 67.76% shipped to China. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop - year is 20,668,363 tons, lower than the same period last year [1]. - Brazil exported 1,521,682.57 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a 96% increase in the daily average export volume compared to January last year. Multiple institutions have raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast, but the high - temperature and dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul needs attention [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.4 million hectares, a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 25, 2026, increased compared to the same period last month, while the production from January 1 - 20 and January 1 - 25 decreased compared to the previous month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 22, 2026, was 1,324,408 tons, within the market forecast range of 900,000 - 1,550,000 tons. The volume to China was 897,459 tons, accounting for 67.76% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop - year is 20,668,363 tons, compared to 33,052,451 tons in the same period last year [1]. - Brazil exported 1,521,682.57 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average of 95,105.16 tons, a 96% increase from January last year's daily average of 48,598.48 tons [1]. - AgRural raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 181 million tons from 180.4 million tons, with 4.9% of the harvest completed, higher than the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - Hedgepoint Global Markets raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 179.5 million tons from 178 million tons due to favorable weather conditions [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.4 million hectares, a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 25, 2026, increased by 9.97% (ITS data) and 7.97% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month. The production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43% (MPOA data), and from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% (SPPOMA data) [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 20 - 26, 2026, are presented in a table [5]. Other Sections - There are also sections about "Oil Basis", "Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread", "Oil Import Profit", and "Protein Meal Basis", but no specific content is provided in the given text [8][10][12]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Safras&Mercado lowered Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September prediction, but still a 4% increase from the previous year [1] - The decrease in production forecast is mainly due to lower yields in the Matopiba soybean - growing region in north - central Brazil, affected by irregular rainfall and delayed sowing [1] - Despite the adjustment, 2026 is expected to have a record soybean harvest, and the planting area is projected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [1] - On November 19, 2025, private exporters reported selling 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Safras&Mercado adjusted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast due to irregular rainfall and adverse weather conditions in some regions, with the yield in Tocantins dropping from 3,800 kg/ha to 3,660 kg/ha, and Paraná's production forecast adjusted to 21.7 million tons [1] - Private exporters reported selling 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Spot Prices - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the spot prices of soymeal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian soybean production in 2025 is expected to increase, while the US soybean crushing volume in March was lower than expected, and the Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Brazil Soybean - IBGE estimates Brazil's 2025 soybean production at 164.26 million tons, a 13.3% increase from the previous year, with a planting area of 47.362525 million hectares, a 2.9% increase from the previous month's estimate and unchanged from the previous year [1]. - Conab reports that as of April 13, the 2024/25 soybean harvest rate in Brazil reached 88.3%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous week, 5.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 0.9 percentage points faster than the five - year average [1]. US Soybean - NOPA reports that the US soybean crushing volume in March was 194.551 million bushels, a 9.4% increase from February but a 0.9% decrease from March 2024, and lower than analysts' estimates [1]. - The daily average soybean crushing volume in March was 6.276 million bushels, the lowest since September [1]. - As of March 31, NOPA member units' soybean oil inventory was 1.498 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of February and a 19.1% decrease from the same period last year, also lower than analysts' estimates [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from April 1 - 15, 2025, were 376,584 tons, a 7.05% increase from the same period of the previous month [1][2]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 10 - 16, 2025, are provided [7].