Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are affected by oil price fluctuations and are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The upward space for soybean oil is limited due to weak drivers from the soybean sector [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton (down 0.80% during the day session) and 9,724 yuan/ton (up 0.06% during the night session). Soybean oil主力 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton (up 0.14% during the day session) and 8,640 yuan/ton (up 0.14% during the night session). Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the day session) and 9,860 yuan/ton (down 0.16% during the night session). CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.53 cents/pound (up 0.18%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume decreased by 83,790 hands to 407,410 hands, and open interest decreased by 11,646 hands to 319,450 hands. Soybean oil主力 trading volume decreased by 25,297 hands to 225,724 hands, and open interest decreased by 398 hands to 594,096 hands. Rapeseed oil主力 trading volume increased by 8,249 hands to 201,004 hands, and open interest increased by 2,919 hands to 237,433 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 9,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,215 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 312 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 304 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 158 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 1,090 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 60 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 133 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026, were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 54.81% [2]. - China imported 1.49 million tons of US soybeans from January - February 2026, a significant 83.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports from Brazil increased by 82.8% to 6.56 million tons, and imports from Argentina increased from 111,603 tons to 3.27 million tons [3]. - As of the week ending March 15, 2026, Canada's canola exports increased by 157.4% to 292,100 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The BMD palm oil futures market was closed on March 20 and March 23 due to the Eid al - Fitr holiday and will resume trading on March 24 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The US soybean futures continued to strengthen this week, mainly driven by macro factors and good performance in the biodiesel sector. However, the fundamental support is limited, with average export sales and increasing pressure from the South American market. The domestic soybean meal spot market is under significant pressure, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The rapeseed meal market is also under pressure, despite its recent strong performance driven by the soybean meal and international rapeseed markets [5][6]. - Given the many macro disturbances and the inability of the fundamentals to support continuous price increases, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading. For arbitrage, the MRM09 spread is expected to narrow, and for options, selling call options on near - month contracts is suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis of the US soybean market**: The US soybean futures are strongly influenced by macro and weather factors. The recent increase in international oil prices and shipping costs has raised the import cost of US soybeans. Although the export situation is average, the US soybean crushing volume is strong, mainly due to high oil and meal prices, good biodiesel demand, and a favorable international soybean meal export situation. However, the US soybean market still faces pressure due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability [5][13]. - **Analysis of the Brazilian soybean market**: Brazilian soybean prices have shown a downward trend. The weather in the Brazilian production area has affected the yield in the southern region, but the overall harvest progress is relatively good. The export volume is increasing, and it is expected to reach about 16.09 million tons this month [16]. - **Analysis of the domestic soybean meal market**: The domestic soybean meal futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by macro factors. The spot market is cold, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Analysis of the domestic rapeseed meal market**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures have strengthened, influenced by the soybean meal and the international rapeseed market. The demand is average, and the supply is improving, with expected increases in rapeseed and rapeseed meal arrivals. The overall market is still under pressure [22]. - **Trading strategies**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM09 spread; for options, sell call options on near - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Multiple factors drive the US soybean futures up**: The US soybean futures are affected by macro and weather factors. The increase in international oil prices and shipping costs has led to higher import costs, and the downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean yield has provided support. However, the export situation is average, and the market still faces pressure [13]. - **Lower Brazilian production and weather disturbances**: Brazilian soybean prices have declined. The weather in the Brazilian production area has affected the yield in the southern region, and the export volume is increasing. The weather in Argentina is relatively dry, but the impact on production is limited [16]. - **Weak market transactions and rising futures**: The domestic soybean meal futures have risen significantly, driven by macro factors. The spot market is cold, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Improved supply and strong rapeseed meal futures**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures have strengthened, influenced by the soybean meal and the international rapeseed market. The demand is average, and the supply is improving, with expected increases in rapeseed and rapeseed meal arrivals. The overall market is still under pressure [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International market**: The report presents data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing data. It also shows data on foreign soybean premiums [26][29][32]. - **Macro factors**: It includes exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as international shipping cost data [35][38][44]. - **Supply**: Data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing volumes are provided [50]. - **Demand**: Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 are presented [53]. - **Inventory**: Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories are provided [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the cost increase drives the price to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity price fluctuations. Although the overall soybean meal price is at the cost bottom and fully reflects the expectation of loose supply and demand, the price is likely to break through upwards under the background of international and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - For oils and fats, in the short term, the continuous Middle - East war and geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, supporting the oils and fats to continue to oscillate strongly. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustment of oils and fats if the Middle - East situation eases. It is recommended to take a long position in soybean and palm oils and roll over existing long positions [73]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends As of March 6, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price was 05 + 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The domestic spot supply and demand remained loose, and the basis price was weak; the 05 contract followed the increase in US soybean cost and the price ran strongly [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End The conflict between the US and Iran pushed up the crude oil price, which was expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. The new - season planting cost of US soybeans was affected by the recent increase in fertilizer prices, supporting the upward shift of the center price of US soybeans. The increase in crude oil price also drove up international freight rates and supported the premium price. Although the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans declined, the CNF price did not weaken significantly. The geopolitical situation pushed up the price of US soybeans. If the Iran war continued, the price of US soybeans was expected to continue to rise. The premium in Brazil remained around 100 cents, and the significant increase in freight rates limited the decline of the Brazilian premium price. The continuous drought in Argentina affected the soybean, with the good - quality rate declining and the output expected to decline slightly, but the overall supply - demand in South America remained loose. The arrivals in China from April to May were gradually increasing, and the supply - demand remained loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End The domestic pig inventory remained at a high level but entered the seasonal off - season, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. The poultry inventory was at a high level, and the egg - laying hens and broilers inventory remained high. In terms of the formula, the prices of corn and wheat increased, and soybean meal was more cost - effective, with the proportion of soybean meal added increasing steadily. The overall demand for soybean meal remained high. Recently, the price of soybean meal increased, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers improved, with better transactions. In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills increased to 596.69 million tons, an increase of 77.15 million tons or 14.85% week - on - week, and an increase of 181.29 million tons or 43.64% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory of national oil mills decreased to 70.12 million tons, a decrease of 14.13 million tons or 16.77% week - on - week, and an increase of 7.19 million tons or 11.43% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the theoretical price of soybean meal was calculated to be 2940 yuan/ton. From July to September, calculated with a premium of 140 cents, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased to 3020 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans for the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel. If the crude oil price continued to rise, referring to the trend of fertilizer prices after the Russia - Ukraine war in 2021, the planting cost was expected to continue to rise. In terms of import crushing profit, the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose significantly, and the import crushing profit improved. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level was at a relatively good level in the same period of history [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends As of the week of March 6, the main 05 contract of palm oil rose 438 yuan/ton to 9218 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 420 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of palm oil fell 18 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of soybean oil rose 186 yuan/ton to 8412 yuan/ton week - on - week; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang rose 90 yuan/ton to 8720 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of soybean oil fell 96 yuan/ton to 308 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of rapeseed oil rose 481 yuan/ton to 9666 yuan/ton week - on - week; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 420 yuan/ton to 10040 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of rapeseed oil fell 61 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by the Middle - East war, the crude oil price rose rapidly, driving the domestic vegetable oils to oscillate strongly. Among them, palm oil, which was most closely related to crude oil, and rapeseed oil, with relatively tight domestic supply - demand, performed relatively strongly [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil In February, Malaysia continued to reduce production. According to SPPOMA and MPOA data, the output of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 16.24 - 19.35% month - on - month, and the decline was larger than that from February 1 - 20. However, affected by the export squeeze from Indonesia, shipping agencies reported that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 21.5 - 25.46% month - on - month. The poor export data limited the de - stocking amplitude, and the estimated inventory in February was 2.63 million tons, which decreased month - on - month but was still relatively high. In Indonesia, as the crude oil price rose, GAPKI indicated that B50 might be reconsidered in 2026, and the production side faced the risk of production reduction due to the nationalization of plantations in 2025, both of which were positive factors. In the short term, driven by the rise of crude oil, the 05 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the performance near the previous resistance level of 4400 - 4460. In China, the arrival volume of palm oil in February was expected to increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. As of the week of February 27, the domestic palm oil inventory rose to a high of 786,700 tons. However, the estimated arrival volume of palm oil from March to April was low, and attention should be paid to whether de - stocking could start from March to April after the reduction in supply [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil The USDA would release the March report on March 10. The market expected that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season might be lowered, mainly because the positive US biodiesel policy was expected to be implemented in late March, which was beneficial to the US soybean crushing demand, and China's procurement would boost the US soybean export demand. In South America, the USDA March report was expected to slightly lower the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the 2025/26 season to 178 million tons and 48.1 million tons respectively. However, Brazil was still expected to have a bumper harvest and was expected to flood the market in the second quarter, which would impact the US soybean export demand. In addition, US soybean oil was strong due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the rise of international crude oil, which strongly supported US soybeans. Overall, driven by the rise of international crude oil and US soybean oil, the improvement of US soybean demand, and the slight production reduction in South America, the 05 contract of US soybeans was expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. After breaking through 1200, attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1250. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans from February to March decreased seasonally, and there were market rumors that the customs had extended the clearance time for South American soybeans, which was beneficial to the de - stocking of soybean oil inventory. As of the week of February 27, the soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 913,300 tons. However, after March, a record amount of South American soybeans would enter China, and the scope of further de - stocking of soybean oil inventory was limited [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil The Middle - East war pushed up the international crude oil price and freight rates, strengthening the cost - side support for domestic imported rapeseed. In addition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, exacerbating the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed oil and jointly driving up the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, on February 27, the final anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed was concluded. China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed was 15%, significantly lower than the previous 75.8% deposit. Although the current loss of crushing profit for importing Canadian rapeseed in China restricted ship - buying, the trade channel between the two countries had been reopened. As long as the crushing profit was appropriate, China could import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in the future. Coupled with the arrival of 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed purchased earlier from March to May, it was expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed in China would significantly ease after March. As of the week of February 27, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas had begun to increase to 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory had also slightly increased to 271,000 tons. The inventory inflection point had appeared, and the inventory would continue to accumulate in the future [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Amid intensifying geopolitical conflicts, there is a contradiction between cost support and loose supply - demand. Although the price has fully factored in the expectation of loose supply - demand, there is a high probability of an upward breakthrough. It is advisable to go long on dips [5][6]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, due to the sharp rise in international crude oil prices caused by the tense Middle - East situation, domestic vegetable oils are expected to oscillate strongly. Among them, soybean oil is expected to outperform palm and rapeseed oils. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to factors such as the Middle - East situation, US biodiesel policy, palm oil production season in Malaysia, and the yield of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season. There are risks of price decline, but overall, the general trend of oils and fats is upward [67][69][222]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of February 27, the spot price in East China was 3030 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2833 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 66 yuan/ton; the basis was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The US - Iran conflict has pushed up crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. At the same time, the increase in international freight rates supports the premium price. - US soybeans are in a strong position due to China's expected additional purchase of 8 million tons and the support of biodiesel. Brazilian premiums are around 100 cents, and the decline is limited before the sales pressure is realized. Argentina's soybean yield is expected to decline slightly due to drought [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - The domestic pig inventory remains at a high level but has entered a seasonal off - peak period, with a month - on - month decline. The poultry inventory is high. Due to the rising prices of corn and wheat, the proportion of soybean meal added to the formula has increased steadily, and overall demand remains high [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2600 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it is 2730 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the year is estimated to be 2970 yuan/ton. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of February 27, the palm oil main 05 contract decreased by 460 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton to 8226 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract decreased by 195 yuan/ton to 9185 yuan/ton [69][71]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has driven up international crude oil prices and vegetable oil prices. In Malaysia, the palm oil production season has continued to decline in February, but the decline is within the normal historical range, and the export data is poor, limiting the destocking amplitude. In China, the inventory has continued to accumulate due to increased imports and weak demand [69]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The tense Middle - East situation, the expected US biodiesel policy, and the potential reduction in Argentina's soybean yield have jointly promoted the rise of US soybean oil prices. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in February - March is conducive to the destocking of soybean oil, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans in March may limit the destocking amplitude [69]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has driven up international crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up domestic rapeseed oil prices in the short - term. However, after the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed supply - demand situation is expected to ease, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].

Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry [1] - The core view of the report is that the international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price pressure will gradually emerge in the follow - up; the domestic soybean meal may face supply tightening and price pressure, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal market has many uncertainties in supply [3][4][55] Group 2: Market Review - The US soybean showed a generally strong trend this month. Affected by the bearish reports at the beginning, the market faced downward pressure, but then rose due to better exports and demand [3] - The domestic soybean meal market first declined and then rose. After a large decline, the cost increase and supply uncertainty supported the price [3] - The domestic rapeseed meal market faced some pressure. Although the macro situation improved, there were still many uncertainties and the supply improved [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent rise of the US soybean market was affected by short - term positive factors. Excluding the possibility of a large - scale reduction in Argentina's soybean production, the overall supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is loose, and the pressure may be gradually reflected [4] - The recent strong trend of the domestic soybean meal market was affected by the cost and the expected tight supply - demand situation. However, the market has fully reacted to the decrease in soybean arrivals and the decline in oil mill operating rates, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [4] - The main uncertainty of the domestic rapeseed meal market lies in the macro - aspect. The supply is still tight due to the lack of clear information on new rapeseed imports. In the short - term, as the quantity of rapeseed and rapeseed meal increases, the pressure will be more obvious [4] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral operation: It is recommended to gradually short soybean meal and rapeseed meal according to the macro and fundamental pressure, and operate with caution [5][58] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [5][58] - Options: Seagull put options [5][58] Group 5: International Soybean Fundamentals - Supply - The US soybean production was slightly revised up. The planted area increased from 81.1 million acres to 81.2 million acres, and the production reached 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 0.09 billion bushels from the previous month. As of December 1, 2025, the carry - over stock was 3.290076 billion bushels, at a historically high level [9] - In the South American market, Brazil's soybean harvest has begun. As of the week of January 24, the harvest progress was 6.6%. Conab estimated the production at 176.124 million tons, an increase of about 4.7 million tons over the previous year; USDA estimated it at 178 million tons, an increase of about 6.5 million tons. The new - crop selling progress is slow, and the subsequent pressure is obvious [11] - In Argentina, the supply of old and new crops is tight. The old - crop inventory is expected to remain low, and the price is rising. The new - crop planting area has decreased, and the production is expected to decrease by about 2.6 million tons. As of the week of January 23, the sowing progress was 96.2%, but the crop quality is average due to less rainfall [14] Group 6: International Soybean Fundamentals - Demand - The US soybean demand is good. The average new export sales volume in the past few weeks was about 1.8 million tons, mainly to China. However, due to the price advantage of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent export competitiveness may be limited. The December 2025 crushing volume was about 225 million bushels, at a high level. The implementation of the biodiesel policy may support the crushing volume [17] - Brazil's December 2025 soybean crushing volume is expected to decline slightly but remain high. The estimated January 2026 export volume is about 3.79 million tons. The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans supports exports, but the selling enthusiasm is not high [19] - Argentina's soybean demand is declining. The December 2025 export volume was about 870,000 tons, and the annual export volume is expected to be about 13 million tons. The December 2025 crushing volume may drop to about 3.1 million tons, and the crushing profit has declined significantly [22] Group 7: International Soybean Fundamentals - Comprehensive Analysis - In the short - term, the international soybean market does not show obvious supply - demand pressure due to macro - factors such as the weak US dollar, which restricts the selling enthusiasm of exporters and improves the competitiveness of US soybean demand. The prices of soybeans in various regions are relatively firm [23][25] - In the long - term, due to the high - yield in South America and the high inventory in the US, the overall supply - demand pressure is obvious, and the price pressure will gradually be reflected [25] Group 8: Domestic Soybean Meal Fundamentals - The domestic soybean meal spot market has been strong this month, with the basis above +300. As of the week of January 23, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5899 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, both at high levels. The high basis reflects the expectation of future supply shortages. The January 2026 average daily trading volume is expected to be 3.809 million tons, with high forward basis trading volume. The soybean import volume in January 2026 is expected to be 7 - 8 million tons, and the crushing volume has declined. The demand is good, and the inventory is decreasing [27][31] - In the future, due to the decrease in previous ship - bookings and the decline in crushing profit, the soybean arrival volume may decrease significantly, and the oil mill operating rate may decline. The demand for soybean meal is expected to remain good, and the inventory will continue to decrease. However, the current 3 - 5 spread has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [35] Group 9: Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Fundamentals - The domestic rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro - factors. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the adjustment of import tariff policies, the possibility of importing Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is increasing, which has been reflected in the market. As of the week of January 23, the rapeseed inventory of domestic oil mills was 60,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was almost zero. The supply is low, and the demand is limited [38] - The overall supply - demand change in the rapeseed meal market is limited. The supply is tight, and the demand is average. The international rapeseed supply is loose, and the future import pressure is large. However, the price advantage of rapeseed meal may gradually emerge due to the strong performance of soybean meal [39][56] Group 10: Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - International soybeans: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, but the market does not show obvious selling pressure in the short - term. In the future, the price pressure will gradually be reflected, mainly affected by the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and the general performance of US soybean exports [55] - Domestic soybean meal: The spot market is gradually strengthening. In the future, the supply - demand situation may be strong due to the decrease in supply. However, the market has already reacted to the future supply shortage, and the long - term price pressure is obvious due to the international market pressure [55] - Domestic rapeseed meal: The supply - demand change is limited, the supply is tight, and the international supply is loose. The future import space is large, and the price is under pressure [56]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].