不过，中方并没有回应特朗普的请求。中国之所以对美国大豆失去了兴趣，主要原因是特朗普对华加征关税，削弱了美国大豆的竞争力。对比之下，巴西大 豆免税，价格较美国低10%-15%，同样的，阿根廷也在9月22日取消了大豆、玉米、小麦等农产品的出口税。没了中国订单，美国豆农正一筹莫展。然而， 就在这个时候，赖清德当局出手了。9月30日，他在接见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格时宣布，台湾打算在未来四年购买100亿美元的美国农 产品，主要包括大豆、小麦、玉米和牛肉。 9月30日，赖清德会见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格 我们知道，台湾作为一个以山地为主的省，可供发展农业的土地非常有限，农业相当脆弱，一旦美国农产品进入台湾市场，台湾本地农业将遭受灭顶之灾。 赖清德对此不可能不清楚，然而他选择为美国雪中送炭，帮助特朗普政府与中国大陆打关税战的做法，引发了本地民众的强烈不满。岛内媒体强调，赖清德 这是要把台湾的农产品当"献礼"送给美国，进一步掏空台湾。100亿美元采购清单，等于每位台湾民众要承担近4000元新台币的成本。 今年秋季，美国农场主迎来一场大丰收，但他们的脸上看不到喜悦。在往年的这个时间段，中国作为 ...

2025年美国大豆丰收季，农场主约翰的仓库里堆满了金黄的豆子，但他一点也高兴不起来。 "这些大豆本该运往中国，但现在连一张订单都没有。 "约翰面 对媒体时声音低沉，"如果再不卖出，我可能得卖掉祖辈传下的农场了。 " 同样的焦虑笼罩着美国中西部农业带。 美国大豆协会主席拉格兰将当前危机形容 为"五级火警"，往年占美国大豆出口总量25%的中国市场，在新一季采购中彻底归零。 这一局面源于2025年4月特朗普政府升级对华关税政策。 中国随之采取反制措施，将美国大豆排除在主要采购名单之外。 芝加哥期货交易所的交易员们发 现，出口检验报告上对中国的大豆装船量连续数月显示为"0.0"，这是二十年来首次在出口季出现如此漫长的空白。 与此同时，在地球另一端的中国港口， 调度中心的屏幕上闪烁着巴西、阿根廷甚至坦桑尼亚的船舶标志，却唯独不见美国货轮的踪迹。 特朗普的紧急喊话与政治焦虑 2025年8月10日深夜，特朗普在社交媒体发出强烈呼吁，要求中国"火速加购4倍美国大豆"，并威胁"否则休想达成任何贸易协议"。 他宣称美国大豆是"全球 顶尖品质"，增加进口将"大幅缩减美中贸易逆差"。 但这一喊话并未得到中方积极响应。 几周后，特朗普 ...

美国中西部广阔的农田里，金黄色的豆浪随风起伏，这本应是一年中最充满希望的季节，但豆农们脸上却不见笑容。 "美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰坐在他的拖拉机上，通过美国广播公司的直播镜头向特朗普总统发出紧急呼吁。他身后是 一片丰收的大豆田，但这位肯塔基州豆农的眼中只有担忧。 以往此时，美国大豆对华年销量中应有约1/3已完成交易，但今年 。拉格兰直言："中国市场对我们的生计至关重要，我们需要的是立即行动，而不是空谈。" 美国大豆正处于收获季节，但豆农们却面临前所未有的危机。根据美国大豆协会统计，美国产大豆以往有25%销往中国，但 今年新一季大豆开镰后，对华销量却仍为零。 拉格兰在接受《财富》杂志采访时警告：" 。"他指出，在以农业为主的肯塔基州，新一季大豆已经开始收割，但当地豆农尚未收获一笔来自中国的订单。 伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州等美国大豆核心产区所受影响尤为深重。这些州的大豆产量约占全美总产 量的一半，如今却共同面对"零订单"的困境。 美国农业部数据显示，2024年美国对华大豆出口额达128亿美元。但今年，中国这个最大买家却尚未下达任何订单。 关税导致美国大豆价格处于明显劣势。拉格兰指出，由于 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a downward trend, with soybean futures experiencing a significant drop of 4.63%, settling at 3544.00 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 19, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 7.52 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 50,000 tons compared to the past three-year average [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and down from 63% the previous week and 64% the same time last year [2] Group 2 - New Century Futures predicts a short-term rebound for soybean futures, but a medium-term bearish trend, influenced by drought conditions affecting U.S. soybeans and high inventory levels in domestic oil mills [3] - The report highlights that the supply of soybeans is abundant, with domestic oil mills operating at high capacity, leading to pressure on soybean meal inventories [3] - Future supply expectations are influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, the realization of U.S. soybean yields, and adjustments in the purchasing rhythm and direction of domestic firms [3]

【粕类周报】供应压力体现 粕类回落加深 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现小幅回落态势，前期利多体现比较充分后，盘面呈现比较明显的回落压力。美国市场近期变化有限，作物收获逐步开始，但优良 率有所下滑，总体产量预计维持高位。近期出口方面仍然缺乏明显改善，同时压榨带动也比较有限。市场整体供需方面带动比较有限。不过当前美 豆价位对于利多体现也比较有限，因此下方支撑也同样存在。南美近期价格表现出一定压力，一方面近期宏观方面影响有所增加，另一方面，南美 市场整体供应仍然比较充足，巴西大豆产量维持高位，虽然压榨方面表现良好，但后续总体出口仍然处于相对偏高水平，价格压力仍然存在。阿根 廷大豆产量维持相对偏高水平，近期受宏观方面影响以及前期出口量较大影响，整体供应压力有所好转。总体来看，当前国际大豆市场供应相对比 较宽松，但价格对于利空体现也比较多，因此预计进一步深跌空间也相对比较有限，整体以震荡运行为主。 国内豆粕供需仍然相对偏宽松，大豆到港量相对较大，油厂开机率也同样维持相对较高水平，豆粕需求表现良好，整体供 ...

Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - Analysts expect an increase in China's imports of U.S. soybeans, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation, while Brazilian soybean exports are rising and Argentine exports remain high, contributing to ample international supply [1][2] - Domestic soybean imports from September to December are projected to be high, leading to a continued accumulation of soybean meal stocks until the end of November, with weekly inventories rising [1][2] Group 2 - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which negatively impacts soybean meal prices [2] - Measures to adjust the breeding sow population in China may affect future demand for soybean meal in feed [2] - Despite a significant drop in soybean meal prices, uncertainties surrounding U.S. soybean exports may provide some rebound potential [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for Canadian canola imports and a decline in purchasing activity from aquaculture due to seasonal demand [3] - Trade policies are acting as a double-edged sword for rapeseed meal prices, with the cessation of Canadian canola imports providing support, while improved relations with Australia and increased orders for Australian canola are weakening this support [3] - Canadian canola harvest is progressing, with a reported 3.6% year-on-year increase in production, which could further pressure rapeseed meal prices if imports resume [3][4] Group 4 - Short-term inventory pressures for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are manageable, but port inventories of granular meal are at historically high levels, limiting upward price movement [4] - Traders are advised to closely monitor developments in China-Canada trade negotiations [4]

【粕类周报】供应整体宽松 粕类总体承压 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 3 | | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 国内菜粕整体变化比较有限，菜籽及菜粕库存维持相对低位，需求表现也比较一般，整体市场变化比较有限。由于后续菜籽菜粕供需变化 均比较有限，宏观方面也存在不确定性，预计以震荡运行为主。 【策略】 单边：远月低位布局多单 套利：M11-1正套，MRM05价差扩大 期权：买入看涨期权（观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面整体呈现震荡偏强运行，市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Market**: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - **South American Markets**: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - **Demand**: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - **Inventory**: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits**: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose**: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern**: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].