长江期货粕类油脂月报 2026-03-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：地缘风险加剧，价格偏强运行 02 油脂：宏观及资金离场扰动，高位波 动加剧 目 录 01 豆粕：地缘风险加剧，价格偏强运行 01 豆粕：地缘风险加剧，价格偏强运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止2月27日，华东现货报价3030元/吨，月度报价下跌30元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2833元/吨，月度上涨66元/吨；基差报价05+200 元/吨，基差报价下跌100元/吨。国内2-3月供需宽松延续，叠加盘面上行，基差及现货价格走弱。 ◆ 供应端：美伊冲突推动原油价格上涨，预计带动美豆油价格上行，支撑美豆价格；同时原油价格上行，带动国际运费上涨，支撑升贴水价格。 美豆方面，受中国新增800万吨采购预期以及生物柴油支撑影响，美豆价格持续偏强运行，触及25年11月来新高；巴西升贴水维持在100美分 附近，巴西国内库存低位，销售压力兑现前预计跌幅有限， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].

Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry [1] - The core view of the report is that the international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price pressure will gradually emerge in the follow - up; the domestic soybean meal may face supply tightening and price pressure, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal market has many uncertainties in supply [3][4][55] Group 2: Market Review - The US soybean showed a generally strong trend this month. Affected by the bearish reports at the beginning, the market faced downward pressure, but then rose due to better exports and demand [3] - The domestic soybean meal market first declined and then rose. After a large decline, the cost increase and supply uncertainty supported the price [3] - The domestic rapeseed meal market faced some pressure. Although the macro situation improved, there were still many uncertainties and the supply improved [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent rise of the US soybean market was affected by short - term positive factors. Excluding the possibility of a large - scale reduction in Argentina's soybean production, the overall supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is loose, and the pressure may be gradually reflected [4] - The recent strong trend of the domestic soybean meal market was affected by the cost and the expected tight supply - demand situation. However, the market has fully reacted to the decrease in soybean arrivals and the decline in oil mill operating rates, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [4] - The main uncertainty of the domestic rapeseed meal market lies in the macro - aspect. The supply is still tight due to the lack of clear information on new rapeseed imports. In the short - term, as the quantity of rapeseed and rapeseed meal increases, the pressure will be more obvious [4] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral operation: It is recommended to gradually short soybean meal and rapeseed meal according to the macro and fundamental pressure, and operate with caution [5][58] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [5][58] - Options: Seagull put options [5][58] Group 5: International Soybean Fundamentals - Supply - The US soybean production was slightly revised up. The planted area increased from 81.1 million acres to 81.2 million acres, and the production reached 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 0.09 billion bushels from the previous month. As of December 1, 2025, the carry - over stock was 3.290076 billion bushels, at a historically high level [9] - In the South American market, Brazil's soybean harvest has begun. As of the week of January 24, the harvest progress was 6.6%. Conab estimated the production at 176.124 million tons, an increase of about 4.7 million tons over the previous year; USDA estimated it at 178 million tons, an increase of about 6.5 million tons. The new - crop selling progress is slow, and the subsequent pressure is obvious [11] - In Argentina, the supply of old and new crops is tight. The old - crop inventory is expected to remain low, and the price is rising. The new - crop planting area has decreased, and the production is expected to decrease by about 2.6 million tons. As of the week of January 23, the sowing progress was 96.2%, but the crop quality is average due to less rainfall [14] Group 6: International Soybean Fundamentals - Demand - The US soybean demand is good. The average new export sales volume in the past few weeks was about 1.8 million tons, mainly to China. However, due to the price advantage of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent export competitiveness may be limited. The December 2025 crushing volume was about 225 million bushels, at a high level. The implementation of the biodiesel policy may support the crushing volume [17] - Brazil's December 2025 soybean crushing volume is expected to decline slightly but remain high. The estimated January 2026 export volume is about 3.79 million tons. The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans supports exports, but the selling enthusiasm is not high [19] - Argentina's soybean demand is declining. The December 2025 export volume was about 870,000 tons, and the annual export volume is expected to be about 13 million tons. The December 2025 crushing volume may drop to about 3.1 million tons, and the crushing profit has declined significantly [22] Group 7: International Soybean Fundamentals - Comprehensive Analysis - In the short - term, the international soybean market does not show obvious supply - demand pressure due to macro - factors such as the weak US dollar, which restricts the selling enthusiasm of exporters and improves the competitiveness of US soybean demand. The prices of soybeans in various regions are relatively firm [23][25] - In the long - term, due to the high - yield in South America and the high inventory in the US, the overall supply - demand pressure is obvious, and the price pressure will gradually be reflected [25] Group 8: Domestic Soybean Meal Fundamentals - The domestic soybean meal spot market has been strong this month, with the basis above +300. As of the week of January 23, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5899 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, both at high levels. The high basis reflects the expectation of future supply shortages. The January 2026 average daily trading volume is expected to be 3.809 million tons, with high forward basis trading volume. The soybean import volume in January 2026 is expected to be 7 - 8 million tons, and the crushing volume has declined. The demand is good, and the inventory is decreasing [27][31] - In the future, due to the decrease in previous ship - bookings and the decline in crushing profit, the soybean arrival volume may decrease significantly, and the oil mill operating rate may decline. The demand for soybean meal is expected to remain good, and the inventory will continue to decrease. However, the current 3 - 5 spread has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [35] Group 9: Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Fundamentals - The domestic rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro - factors. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the adjustment of import tariff policies, the possibility of importing Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is increasing, which has been reflected in the market. As of the week of January 23, the rapeseed inventory of domestic oil mills was 60,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was almost zero. The supply is low, and the demand is limited [38] - The overall supply - demand change in the rapeseed meal market is limited. The supply is tight, and the demand is average. The international rapeseed supply is loose, and the future import pressure is large. However, the price advantage of rapeseed meal may gradually emerge due to the strong performance of soybean meal [39][56] Group 10: Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - International soybeans: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, but the market does not show obvious selling pressure in the short - term. In the future, the price pressure will gradually be reflected, mainly affected by the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and the general performance of US soybean exports [55] - Domestic soybean meal: The spot market is gradually strengthening. In the future, the supply - demand situation may be strong due to the decrease in supply. However, the market has already reacted to the future supply shortage, and the long - term price pressure is obvious due to the international market pressure [55] - Domestic rapeseed meal: The supply - demand change is limited, the supply is tight, and the international supply is loose. The future import space is large, and the price is under pressure [56]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures contracts are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, US soybean weekly export sales reports) and South American weather. For soybeans, although the pre - holiday policy sentiment was strong, the external soybean market was weak. It is expected that the domestic market will mainly fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise, and subsequent state reserve situations should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Movements of US and Domestic Soybean Futures - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. In the week of January 2, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 2.4%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74%. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. In the week of December 31, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) fell 1.47%, and the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) rose 2.74% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - Chinese continued to purchase US soybeans in limited quantities, which had a neutral impact. From December 29 to January 2, 2026, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans to China and unknown destinations was about 367,000 tons, and to Egypt was 100,000 tons (for delivery in the 2025/26 season). As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 603,000 tons. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 85,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1.401 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 990,000 tons (about 2.4 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were - 480,000 tons (about 2.85 million tons the previous week), with a total of about 985,000 tons (about 2.43 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were about 620,000 tons (1.38 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 603,000 tons. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which had a negative impact. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margin increased week - on - week. - The soybean planting in Argentina is gradually coming to an end. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was about 82%, compared with about 93% in the same period last year. - According to the weather forecast on January 2, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be "low first and then high"; the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be less (the precipitation will improve starting from January 8), and the temperature will be low. Although the precipitation in the Argentine产区 was less from late December 2025 to early January 2026, due to the forecast of improved precipitation in mid - and early - January, the market did not trade on the "short - term lack of precipitation" and mainly conducted bearish trading based on the view that "weather problems are not significant" [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), the trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 160,000 tons the previous week. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 182,000 tons, compared with about 183,000 tons the previous week. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - The inventory of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [2]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains (the mainstream purchase price of clean grains passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,160 - 4,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some parts of Inner China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade, packaged, and tower - selected Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,580 - 4,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, 2025, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction about 190,000 tons of domestic soybeans produced in 2022 through competitive bidding, and the actual transaction volume was about 155,900 tons, with a reserve price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,014 yuan/ton, and a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton. This was the third state - reserve soybean auction, and the participants were still manufacturers and various trading entities, with a lower premium compared with the previous two auctions. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. Although the overall trading in the sales - area market was slow, as the Spring Festival approached, all sectors of the market had restocking demand, and prices might rise [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Next week (Dec 29 - Dec 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors should avoid risks during the New Year's Day holiday [5] - For soybean meal, the domestic market is strong due to customs clearance concerns and positive commodity - market sentiment, but attention should also be paid to the dynamics of US soybeans. US soybeans are affected by China's purchases and South American weather [5] - For soybeans, the stable - to - strong spot market and the state reserve's price - increase acquisition are positive factors, while state reserve auctions may suppress short - term upward momentum, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions Last Week International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices fluctuated last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a slight upward trend. The 03 - month contract of US soybean and US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.16% and 2.02% respectively on Dec 26 [1] - China's limited purchases of US soybeans are neutral - to - negative. On Dec 22, China bought 39.6 tons of US soybeans [1] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which is negative. As of Dec 26, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for Feb 2026 delivery decreased [1] - Some regions in Brazil started harvesting soybeans. AgRural raised the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow, but the early growth was good. As of Dec 24, the planting progress was about 75.5%, and the excellent - good rate was 67% [1] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing areas shows that precipitation in Brazilian main - producing areas will be basically normal, and in Argentina, it will be scarce in the next two weeks [1] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly fluctuating last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 2.01% increase in the m2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The trading volume, pick - up volume, and basis of domestic soybean meal increased week - on - week. The inventory was basically flat week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decline next week [1][3] Domestic Soybean Market - Domestic soybean futures prices rose slightly last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 1.08% increase in the a2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The domestic soybean price was stable - to - strong. The state reserve raised the purchase price, and the auction results were good. The trading volume of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was okay, while it was slow in the southern market [4]