2026年01月 04日 震荡,关注美豆出口与南美天气 节前政策情绪偏强,节后 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 吴光静 元旦前后（2025.12.29~2026.01.02）,美豆期价下跌,因为中方采购有限、美豆出口数据偏弱、 南美天气压力。从周Ｋ线角度,1月2日当周,美豆主力 03月合约周跌幅 2.4%,美豆粕主力 03 月合约 周跌幅 3.74%。 节前(2025.12.29~2025.12.31),国内豆粕期价冲高回落,豆一期价偏强上涨。豆粕方面,主要 受到美豆偏弱和国内商品市场情绪影响。豆一方面,政策情绪偏强:中央农村工作会议强调,要稳定粮油 生产,加力实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动,推动粮食品种培优和品质提升。从周K线角度,12月 31 日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 1.47%,豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 2.74%。(上述期货价格及涨 跌幅数据引自文华财经) 元旦前后(2025.12.29~2026.01.02),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方持续采购美豆。数 量有限、影响中性。据新闻讯,12月29日~1月2日当周,美豆销 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 04 日 豆粕：低位震荡，关注美豆出口与南美天气 豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 元旦前后（2025.12.29～2026.01.02），美豆期价下跌，因为中方采购有限、美豆出口数据偏弱、 南美天气压力。从周 K 线角度，1 月 2 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周跌幅 2.4%，美豆粕主力 03 月合约 周跌幅 3.74%。 节前（2025.12.29～2025.12.31），国内豆粕期价冲高回落，豆一期价偏强上涨。豆粕方面，主要 受到美豆偏弱和国内商品市场情绪影响。豆一方面，政策情绪偏强：中央农村工作会议强调，要稳定粮油 生产，加力实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动，推动粮食品种培优和品质提升。从周 K 线角度，12 月 31 日当周，豆粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 1.47%，豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 2.74%。（上述期货价格及涨 跌幅数据引自文华财经） 元旦前后（2025.12.29～2026.01.02），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（12.22～12.26），美豆期价涨跌互现、重心略微上移，期价上涨因为中方采购美豆、期价下跌 因为市场对中方采购仍保持谨慎。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.16%， 美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.02%。 上周（12.22～12.26），国内豆粕期价偏强震荡，豆一期价小幅上涨。豆粕方面，期价偏强主要是周 四市场消息影响：海关通关问题仍有担忧。豆一方面，盘面同样受到周四市场消息影响。此外，国储提价 收购影响偏多，国储抛储抑制上升动能。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨幅 2.01%，豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 1.08%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（12.22～12.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中方采购美豆数量有限，影响中性偏 空。据新闻讯，12 月 22 日中方采购美豆 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 豆粕：低位震荡 豆一：区间运行 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（12.08-12.12），美豆期价跌势为主，虽然中方持续采购美豆，但无超预期采购、市场仍担心 美豆需求，南美天气良好也给美豆带来竞争压力。从周 K 线角度，12 月 12 日当周，美豆主力 01 月合约 周跌幅 2.62%，美豆粕主力 01 月合约周跌幅 1.76%。 上周（12.08-12.12），国内豆粕期价先跌后涨，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，周初跟随美豆期价下 跌，周三受到市场传言"因控制进口规模、通关时间延长"影响、盘面反弹（近月合约 01 合约偏强）。豆 一方面，现货稳中偏强，期货盘面偏强也是受到上述市场消息影响。从周 K 线角度，12 月 12 日当周，豆 粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 1.81%，豆一主力 a2601 合约周涨幅 1.55%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自 文华财经） 上周（12.08-12.12），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中方继续采购美豆，事件本身利多、但低 于市场预期。据新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's December supply and demand report presents neutral data, with minor adjustments to the U.S. soybean balance sheets for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, leading to continued price declines due to poor export prospects [3][8]. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand - The 2024/25 U.S. soybean balance sheet shows a slight adjustment with imports reduced from 29 million bushels to 27 million bushels, exports down from 1,882 million bushels to 1,875 million bushels, and residuals increased from 32 million bushels to 37 million bushels, keeping ending stocks unchanged at 316 million bushels [3][8]. - The 2025/26 balance sheet remains unchanged, with ending stocks at 290 million bushels, slightly below market expectations of 300 million bushels [3][8]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's 2025/26 balance sheet maintains production at 175 million tons, with imports adjusted from 350,000 tons to 500,000 tons and ending stocks increased from 36.36 million tons to 36.51 million tons [4][9]. - Argentina's balance sheets for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 show minimal adjustments, with the 2025/26 ending stocks slightly reduced from 22.85 million tons to 22.84 million tons [4][9]. Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global soybean production for 2025/26 is revised up from 421.75 million tons to 422.54 million tons, with ending stocks increased from 121.99 million tons to 122.37 million tons [10]. Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The report indicates that there are no significant data changes from North and South America that would impact market prices, with stable Chinese soybean purchases leading to a lack of rapid increases in U.S. soybean exports [5][12]. - The expectation is for a weak medium to long-term outlook for CBOT soybeans, with potential price support only arising from adverse weather in Brazil or increased Chinese purchases [5][12]. - Domestic supply remains ample, and the impact of recent reserve auctions has been significant, suggesting that shortages are unlikely in the near term [5][12].

中国采购步伐再度放缓，仅上周五确认对华销售46.2万吨美国大豆，使得10月底以来确认的对华大豆销 售量达到270万吨大豆，相当于1200万吨采购目标的22.5%。 （来源：中华粮网） 报告预测，中国2025/26年度大豆进口量预计为1.06亿吨，和此前9月报告保持一致，较上年的1.07亿吨 小幅减少100万吨。这主要源于中国持续推动进口替代、优化饲料配方及稳定油脂供给的政策基调。 来源：中华粮网 中国2025/26年度大豆产量预计达到1990万吨，反映出政府持续推动粮油作物自给率的努力，包括扩种 激励、东北地区补贴及"粮油并举"政策导向。尽管国内产量增加，但增幅仍不足以显著改变对进口依赖 的格局，进口依旧占据供应主要份额。 中华粮网致力于成为中国粮食行业最权威、最专业的信息及数据服务提供商。 美国财政部长贝森特周三表示，中国正在按"正确节奏"履行贸易协议义务，包括采购1200万吨美国大 豆。不过他表示这些采购将在2026年2月底前完成，而此前白宫宣称这些采购将在2025年12月底前完 成。分析师认为，目前美国大豆价格高于巴西供应，是中国采购缓慢的主要原因。 从出口报价来看，阿根廷大豆最便宜。截至12月3日，阿 ...

2025 年 12月 07 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(12.01-12.05),美豆期价跌势为主,因为美国财政部长斯科特 ·贝森特表示"中方采购美豆 1200万吨的时间从今年年底延长至明年２月底"。此外,中方采购美豆数量没有超预期利多,对美豆激励 作用不大。从周 K 线角度 22月5日当周,美豆主力 01月合约周跌幅2.81%,美豆粕主力 01月合约周 跌幅 3.52%。 3 上周(12.01-12.05),国内豆粕期价冲高回落,豆一期价偏弱。豆粕方面,美豆期价偏弱、市场缺 乏上涨动能,豆粕盘面价格顺势回落。豆一方面,现货稳中偏强,期货偏弱可能受到她储传言影响。从周 K 线角度,12月5日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 0.84%,豆一主力 a2601 合约周跌幅 0.8%。(上 述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周(12.01-12.05),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方继续采购美豆:事件本身利多、但低 于预期,对美豆激励有限。据USDA新闻讯,12月5日中国采购美豆 46.2万吨(2025/26年度交货)。2) ...

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View - In the next week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be continuously paid to China's purchases of US soybeans. For soybean meal, there is currently no other driving force, and the focus is on China's purchases of US soybeans. Additionally, it is reported that China and the US are about to sign a soybean trade agreement, so the progress of this event should be monitored. For soybeans, the spot price is stable. The increase in state - reserve purchase points and the slight increase in the purchase price of some protein soybeans have a positive impact on the spot market. The disk situation depends on Sino - US trade sentiment [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents 1. Futures Price Changes Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - US soybean futures prices rose slightly. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of November 28, the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 0.95%, while the main January 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 0.38%. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were slightly stronger, and soybean futures prices were neutral. In the week of November 28, the main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.06%, and the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly decrease of 0.02% [1]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was positive for US soybeans. From November 24 to 28, China purchased a total of about 435,000 tons of US soybeans (all for delivery in the 2025/26 season). - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased slightly week - on - week, with a neutral impact. As of the week of November 28, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of disk crushing increased slightly week - on - week. - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was still slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 20, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 81%, compared with 71% in the previous week and about 86% in the same period last year. Irregular rainfall in most soybean plantations in the Brazilian Cerrado limited the sowing progress and raised concerns about yields. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans was slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 19, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24.6%, compared with about 35.8% in the same period last year. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America: In the next two weeks (November 28 - December 12), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be low, and the temperature will be "partially high (November 28 - December 2) and mostly normal"; precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be basically normal (high at the end of November and decreasing in early December), and the temperature will fluctuate around the average. Overall, the weather in the producing areas is not a major issue, with a neutral impact [1]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 240,000 tons in the previous week. - **Pick - up volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 190,000 tons in the previous week. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 10 yuan/ton, compared with about 3 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 153 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 14% and a year - on - year increase of about 49%. - **Crushing volume**: The weekly crushing volume of soybeans decreased, and it is expected to decrease next week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans was about 2.2 million tons (2.33 million tons in the previous week and 1.89 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 61% (64% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (November 29 - December 5), the expected crushing volume of soybeans in oil mills is about 2.14 million tons (1.66 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 59% (47% in the same period last year) [2][3]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - **Soybean price**: The soybean price was stable. The net - grain purchase price of soybeans in some parts of Northeast China was in the range of 3,960 - 4,080 yuan/ton, the net - grain purchase price in some parts of Inner China was in the range of 4,860 - 5,060 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,460 - 4,680 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **State - reserve purchase**: The number of state - reserve purchase points continued to increase, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans was raised, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Two new state - reserve purchase points were added on November 28, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans increased. - **Farmer and trader behavior**: Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and traders had slow buying and selling. Many grass - roots farmers showed obvious reluctance to sell, waiting for price increases. Most traders reported slow procurement and slow sales. - **Market demand**: The demand in the northern sales area increased, while that in the southern area was stable. In the northern market, the sales of Northeast soybeans were acceptable due to the increase in demand for soy products caused by the drop in temperature. In the southern region, the sales were slow, and there were no new signs of demand for terminal soy products in many places [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent procurement of U.S. soybeans by China, while appearing to ensure national food security, actually imposes significant costs on domestic oilseed processing plants due to the higher price compared to Brazilian soybeans [2][5]. Price Comparison - The cost of U.S. soybeans is reported to be between 4419 to 4465 RMB per ton, while Brazilian soybeans are priced at 3817 RMB per ton, resulting in an additional cost of approximately 600 to 650 RMB per ton for U.S. soybeans [1][2]. Procurement Volume and Financial Impact - China has recently purchased 1.5 million tons of U.S. soybeans, leading to an estimated additional expenditure of 900 to 1 billion RMB compared to the same volume of Brazilian soybeans [3]. Pressure on Domestic Industry - Domestic oilseed processing plants are facing increased pressure due to high raw material costs, elevated inventory levels, and stagnant finished product prices, which severely compresses profit margins [5][8]. Strategic Considerations - The motivations behind importing U.S. soybeans may include strategic reserves or balancing international relations, but the increased costs are not being passed down to downstream producers and consumers, leading to significant profit compression in other segments of the supply chain [8].

【粕类周报】粕类供应宽松 盘面震荡回落 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现冲高回落态势，主要原因仍然在于市场缺乏更多利多因素，盘面上涨幅度较大，对于利多体现比较充分。后续美豆市场重点影响 在于出口变化，如果美豆出口表现一般，后续可能有一定回落压力。南美旧作供应压力整体维持中性水平，巴西前期出口以及压榨维持良好，后续 出口空间可能有所减少，但紧张情况可能相对比较有限。近期巴西产区天气以干燥为主，后续降雨可能有所改善，作物播种受影响有限。阿根廷前 期需求表现良好，近期供应压力有所好转。新作播种开始逐步推进，但预计影响相对有限。总体来看，当前国际大 ...