2025年11月21日，1月船期的大豆完税成本显示，美国大豆（美湾/美西）价格高达4419～4465元/吨，而巴西大豆仅为3817元/吨，阿根廷大豆也便宜不少。 这意味着，如果选择美豆，每吨就要多付出600～650元的成本。 最近，一则关于中国采购美国大豆的新闻引起了广泛关注。表面上看，这像是"保障国家粮油安全"的利好消息，但细一算账，却发现其中的"门道"不浅。数 据显示，中国近期采购的美国大豆，每吨比巴西大豆贵出了约600-650元人民币。这笔巨额的"溢价"最终由谁来承担？报道指出，这份账单，很大程度上将 落在国内榨油厂的头上。 中国近期已采购了150万吨美国大豆。粗略计算，这批美豆相对于同船期的巴西大豆，就得多花9～10亿元人民币。 从表面上看，这笔巨额采购可能是为了营造"台面上的友好"以及拉动盘面，但从产业链的角度看，这笔钱并非凭空消失。 这笔看似"保障安全"的大豆采购，实际上是由国内榨油厂在承受最大的压力。他们不仅要面对高昂的原料成本，还要消化高企的库存，同时成品价格又上不 去，利润空间被严重压缩。这种"产业链压力主导"的弱现实逻辑，与"政治友好"的表面文章形成了鲜明对比。 报道通过详细的数据和分析， ...

【粕类周报】粕类供应宽松 盘面震荡回落 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现冲高回落态势，主要原因仍然在于市场缺乏更多利多因素，盘面上涨幅度较大，对于利多体现比较充分。后续美豆市场重点影响 在于出口变化，如果美豆出口表现一般，后续可能有一定回落压力。南美旧作供应压力整体维持中性水平，巴西前期出口以及压榨维持良好，后续 出口空间可能有所减少，但紧张情况可能相对比较有限。近期巴西产区天气以干燥为主，后续降雨可能有所改善，作物播种受影响有限。阿根廷前 期需求表现良好，近期供应压力有所好转。新作播种开始逐步推进，但预计影响相对有限。总体来看，当前国际大 ...

2025 年 11月 23 日 关注已举市场情绪。 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(11.17=11.21),美豆期价涨跌互现,期价上涨因为中方首次大量采购美豆,期价下跌因为市 场对中方采购进度存疑、商品市场整体情绪偏弱。从周 K 线角度, 11月 21 日当周，美豆主力 01 月合约 周涨幅 0.36%,美豆粕主力 01 月合约周跌幅 1.2%。 上周(11.17-11.21),国内豆粕和豆一期价偏弱。豆粕方面,主要因为中方采购美豆、国内情绪偏 弱。豆一方面,现货稳中偏强,盘面偏弱可能受到中方采购美豆的情绪影响。从周Ｋ线角度,11月21日 当周,豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 2.59%,豆一主力 a2601 合约周跌幅 2.51%。(上述期货价格及涨跌幅 数据引自文华财经) 上周(11.17-11.21),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方持续采购美豆,利多美豆。据 USDA 新闻讯,11月18日~11月20日,中国采购美豆累计约158.4万吨（均为2025/26年度交货）:11月18。 日美国私人出口商报告对中国销售 79.2万吨美国大 ...

【粕类周报】粕类偏强运行 市场成交改善 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面继续呈现偏强运行态势，主要因市场对后续美豆出口仍有一定乐观表现，同时在报告发布前期，市场对美豆单产下调有一定考虑。本 次报告整体与市场评估结果接近，库存处于相对偏低水平。但由于当前美豆盘面价格对于利好因素体现比较充分，因此报告发布后盘面呈现明显回 落。预计美豆后续可能仍将表现出一定压力。南美市场需求表现比较良好，旧作方面整体价格支撑比较明显，近期巴西压榨利润表现仍然处于低位， 后续可能对压榨仍有一定影响，旧作价格仍有一定支撑。新作产量预计仍将维持高位，但后续受天气影响较大， ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 豆粕：震荡，关注中方采购美豆情况 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（11.10-11.14），美豆期价先涨后跌，期价上涨因为 11 月 USDA 供需报告偏多预期，期价下跌 因为 11 月 USDA 供需报告虽然偏多、但未能提供更大利多指引，且美豆出口尚未看到实质性进展。从周 K 线角度，11 月 14 日当周，美豆主力 01 月合约周涨幅 0.47%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.48%。 上周（11.10-11.14），国内豆粕和豆一期价偏强震荡。豆粕方面，主要因为美豆偏强、11 月 USDA 报告预期偏多。豆一方面，偏多因素有：现货稳中偏强、国储收购库点增加、国内政策支持预期等。从周 K 线角度，11 月 14 日当周，豆粕主力 m2601 合约周涨幅 1.11%，豆一主力 a2601 合约周涨幅 2.36%。 （上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（11.10-11.14），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）11 月美国农业部供需报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown persists, lacking data guidance, and the market focuses on Sino-US policy agreements and the return of US soybean orders. Domestically, near - term soybean and soybean meal supplies are relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease. The cost - end support for soybean meal is strong, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff policies and the growth of South American soybeans [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, suppressing the price. Domestically, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The supply is expected to tighten, but demand is also weak. In the long - term, the global supply - demand situation will suppress the price, and in the short - term, it will stabilize with the rebound of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and Sino - Canadian trade relations [3]. - For different participants: Traders with inventory can hedge against price drops by short - selling a small proportion; those seeking to build inventory can hedge on the futures or options market to prevent sudden price increases. Feed mills can also take similar hedging measures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The market expects a downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, which may tighten the fundamentals and support the price. The price has been oscillating at a high level between 1100 - 1160 cents/bu. Analysts' average estimate of the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bu/acre, a decrease from the September estimate. The export and ending inventory are expected to be adjusted downward. The current US soybean has a cost advantage over Brazilian soybeans, but there is still pressure on further price increases without large - scale purchases from China [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.02/bu, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.0886 million tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume since the beginning of the crop year was 8.89 million tons, lower than the previous year [18]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. The sowing in Argentina has started. China's procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to future weather conditions and China's procurement [26][27]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons [27]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The international rapeseed price has stabilized and rebounded due to Canada's biofuel production incentive plan and the rebound of oilseed soybean prices. The 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase in consumption demand of 2.06%. The trade volume may decline due to trade policies, and the inventory and stock - to - use ratio are increasing [52][53]. - As of November 2, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 188,400 tons. The cumulative exports from August 1 to November 2 were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory was 1.3187 million tons [53]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The soybean meal futures continued to oscillate. Although the Sino - US trade policy has changed, the cost of US soybeans is still higher, and the near - term supply is loose, suppressing the upward space. However, the overall import cost increase provides strong support for the price [63][64]. - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September and a 17.25% increase from October 2024. The cumulative import from January to October was 95.682 million tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - As of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to reach 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% in the 46th week (November 8 - 14) [86]. - The rapeseed crushing in coastal areas has basically stopped, with a crushing volume of 0 tons and an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - As of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline [101]. - As of November 13, the total soybean meal transaction was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 221,100 tons. The daily average transaction was 172,700 tons, a 43.35% increase. The total soybean meal pick - up was 900,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons [119]. 3.5 Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price ranged from 3010 - 3050 yuan/ton this week, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. The average basis in coastal markets was between - 21 and - 61 yuan/ton, with mixed changes compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan/ton [137].

【粕类周报20251114】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏 H 日期: 2025-11-14 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【粕类周报20251114】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏强 | 核心观点 2025-11-14 | 核心观点 | 2025-11-14 | | --- | --- | --- | | ▼ 观点： 豆粕 上方空间有限，在3200价位存在压力 ● 合约: m2601 | ♥ 观点： 菜籽粕 上方空间有限，在2500价位存在压力 * 合约: RM601 | | | # 逻辑： 国外方面，美政府停摆持续，基本面缺乏报告等数据指引，市场关注仍将集中在中美政策协议 | ® 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局宽松,压制菜籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | | 落地帶来的美豆订单回归。短期关注美豆1100美分/蒲附近压力。若后续美豆销售大幅改善预计将支撑价格 | 指引。国内方面，加莱籽反倾销初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | | 讲一步靠近新作相植成本区间 | 持续收紧。但下游水产寿殖逐步进入浴季，且豆菜箱加货价差低 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of palm oil is limited, and there is a risk of a second decline [1]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,744 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.30% change and 8,664 yuan/ton at night with a -0.91% change; soybean oil futures closed at 8,288 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.61% change; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,840 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.66% change. The trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased by 109,457, 37,411, and 52,411 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,210 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan. The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions is - 124 yuan/ton, 322 yuan/ton, and 370 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 1,096 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 456 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is - 90 yuan/ton, 224 yuan/ton, and 450 yuan/ton respectively [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, a 3.4% increase from last year. Production in November may decline by 9% month - on - month to 1.86 million tons, and then by 11% in December to 1.66 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 is expected to be 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the same period last month [2][3]. - **Soybeans in the US**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending November 6, US soybean export sales will increase by 4.5 - 16 million tons, soybean meal export sales will increase by 0.5 - 4 million tons, and soybean oil export sales will increase by 0 - 0.25 million tons [3]. - **Soybeans in Brazil**: The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to be 178.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous forecast [4]. - **Soybeans in Argentina**: As of the week ending November 5, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 38.8346 million tons, and the cumulative sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 4.1747 million tons [5]. - **Rapeseed in Ukraine**: The 2026/27 rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to be 3.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.2 - 3.6 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [5]. - **Rapeseed in Australia**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [6]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook; the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited. However, there are also many uncertainties, and the downward space is expected to be limited if the overall market demand does not decline significantly [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a volatile trend. The near - term contracts are relatively strong due to the loss of soybean crushing profit, the lack of competitiveness of US soybeans compared with Brazilian soybeans, and the tight supply in the long - term domestic market. The current domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with high inventory and general trading volume [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend, mainly affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed supply. However, the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal limits the price increase space [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the long - term contracts for unilateral trading, expand the MRM spread for arbitrage, and adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The US soybean market shows a high - level volatile trend. The improvement of export prospects has been fully reflected in the price. Further upward movement requires more positive changes in supply. The South American market is under pressure. Brazilian soybean export volume is expected to increase, and the price increase space is limited. Argentina also faces price pressure due to large production [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market has a near - term strong and long - term weak pattern. The near - term strength is due to factors such as crushing profit loss and tight long - term supply. The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high inventory [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import, but the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal restricts the price increase [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the long - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell wide straddles [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Export Prospects Improve, and the Market Remains at a High Level - The US soybean futures market continues to show a high - level volatile trend. The export prospects have improved, but the price increase space is limited without a significant decline in supply. The US soybean harvest progress is expected to be fast, and the single - yield estimate has been slightly adjusted. The soybean crushing profit has declined, and the export is still slow with high uncertainty [8]. 3.2.2 South America: Sowing Slows Down, and Prices Decline - The South American soybean price shows a downward trend. The Brazilian soybean price has declined, and the new - crop price is relatively firm due to the slow sowing progress. The Brazilian soybean sowing is affected by weather, the demand is general, the crushing profit is low, and the export volume is expected to remain high. The Argentine new - crop sowing has started, and the supply is expected to decrease with limited market impact [11]. 3.2.3 Trade Relations: Changes Increase, and Soybean Meal Fluctuates at a High Level - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a high - level volatile trend. The oil mill operating rate is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the crushing profit is average. The demand is good due to high livestock and poultry inventory, but the further inventory accumulation space is limited. The reduction of tariffs on US soybeans does not make them competitive, and the long - term soybean import is expected to decrease [14]. 3.2.4 Market Supply: Loose, and Demand Remains at a Low Level - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend. The market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import. The supply of rapeseed for crushing is low, the inventory is low, and the demand is general. The high inventory of granular rapeseed meal makes the market supply - demand relationship relatively loose, and the price increase space is limited [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing volume [20][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premium - It shows the FOB prices of US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina soybeans and the CNF price of rapeseed [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates of Panamax vessels on different routes [32][38]. 3.3.4 Supply - The data includes soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [40]. 3.3.5 Demand - It shows the weekly提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [42]. 3.3.6 Inventory - The data includes the inventory of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal [45].

Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]