Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. agricultural counselor maintains the forecast of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production at 48 million tons, a 5% decrease from the 2024/25 season but still the fourth - highest in the past decade. The soybean export forecast is reduced by 500,000 tons, and the import forecast is lowered by 200,000 tons to 7 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is predicted to be below 180 million tons due to bad weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Strong U.S. soybean exports and potential production cuts in Brazil and Argentina support the upward trend of U.S. soybeans in the external market, and the domestic market shows a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to near - month arrivals, soybean auctions, and basis repair processes [1]. - Indian importers cancelled about 25,000 tons of Russian soybean oil orders and 6,000 - 8,000 tons of South American soybean oil orders due to the increasing premium of soybean oil over palm oil. Palm oil imports in India increased by 10.1% in February compared to January, reaching the highest level since August 2025. The shift from soybean oil to palm oil purchases supports palm oil demand, leading to a significant price increase and a wider spread between soybean oil and palm oil. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and its development needs to be monitored [2]. 2. Summary by Related Content 2.1. Soybean Meal - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production forecast remains at 48 million tons, down 5% from 2024/25, but the fourth - highest in the past decade. The soybean crushing forecast stays at 43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons. The export forecast is cut by 500,000 tons, and the import forecast is reduced by 200,000 tons to 7 million tons, the second - highest in history [1]. - Brazilian consulting agencies predict that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will be below 180 million tons due to bad weather in Rio Grande do Sul, the third - largest soybean - producing state in Brazil [1]. - Strong U.S. soybean exports and potential production cuts in Brazil and Argentina support the upward trend of U.S. soybeans in the external market. The domestic market shows a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to near - month arrivals, soybean auctions, and basis repair processes [1]. 2.2. Edible Oils - Indian importers cancelled about 25,000 tons of Russian soybean oil orders and 6,000 - 8,000 tons of South American soybean oil orders due to the increasing premium of soybean oil over palm oil [2]. - In February, Indian palm oil imports increased by 10.1% to 844,000 tons compared to January, reaching the highest level since August 2025. Soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% to 303,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45.3% to 146,000 tons [2]. - The shift from soybean oil to palm oil purchases supports palm oil demand, leading to a significant price increase and a wider spread between soybean oil and palm oil. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and its development needs to be monitored [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, CBOT soybeans rose significantly, while the Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high. The domestic rapeseed meal trend was weaker than that of soybean meal. Next week, the technical indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish. In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, but attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in South Mato Grosso. The Argentine drought is still intensifying. The USDA report next week will be a focus. The domestic soybean meal spot may enter a sales slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [6][75][76] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trends This Week - CBOT soybeans rose significantly, initially falling due to the strengthening dollar and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, then rebounding after the US biodiesel policy利好 and Trump's remarks on China's increased soybean purchases. The Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high, pressured by the slump in precious metals and the collective decline of commodities. The domestic rapeseed meal was weaker, with inventory rising as Australian rapeseed entered the crushing process and demand remaining stagnant [6] 2. US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 2% week - on - week but increased by 15% year - on - year. As of January 29, 2026, the export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons. The export to China (mainland) decreased by 18% week - on - week but increased by 113% year - on - year. The proportion of exports to China in the total export volume decreased to 56.5% [13] 3. South American Market - Brazil and Argentina - **Weather and Crop Conditions**: In Brazil, most areas had showers, with varying rainfall in the east. The average temperature was nearly 2°C higher than normal. In Argentina, the western region had showers, while the east was dry, and the average temperature was 1 - 5°C higher than normal. The soybean harvest progress in Paraná, Brazil, was 14%, and in Mato Grosso, the estimated yield was adjusted upwards [20][27] - **Production and Sales Forecast**: StoneX expects Brazil's soybean production to reach a record 1.8 billion tons this year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier predicts Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production to be 48 million tons, with a tendency for further downward adjustment [26][28] - **Export Situation**: Brazil's soybean export volume in February is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than that in January and the same period last year. In the 2025/26 season so far, the EU's soybean import volume has decreased by 13%, with a decrease in the share from the US and Ukraine and a slight increase from Brazil [26][29] 4. Domestic Market - Inventory, Profit, and Consumption - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4082 million tons, with a theoretical crushable period of 25 days. It is expected to be 5.04 million tons by next weekend [41] - **Crush Profit**: The domestic spot and futures crush profits declined significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in soybean meal and soybean oil prices and the increase in import costs [41] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of the 5th weekend (January 31), the domestic soybean meal inventory was 947,000 tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory from imported crushing was 100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [49][55] - **Apparent Consumption**: The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 5th week was 1.8539 million tons, higher than 1.7306 million tons last week [51] Part 2: Market Outlook 1. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal indices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, Dalian soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given in the text [70][71][73] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish [75] - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the Brazilian premium is falling slightly. The Argentine drought continues. The USDA report next week will be a key point. The US soybean may fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 cents per bushel. In the domestic market, the soybean meal spot may enter a slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely fluctuate between 2700 - 2800 yuan per ton [76]