Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, CBOT soybeans rose significantly, while the Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high. The domestic rapeseed meal trend was weaker than that of soybean meal. Next week, the technical indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish. In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, but attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in South Mato Grosso. The Argentine drought is still intensifying. The USDA report next week will be a focus. The domestic soybean meal spot may enter a sales slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [6][75][76] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trends This Week - CBOT soybeans rose significantly, initially falling due to the strengthening dollar and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, then rebounding after the US biodiesel policy利好 and Trump's remarks on China's increased soybean purchases. The Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high, pressured by the slump in precious metals and the collective decline of commodities. The domestic rapeseed meal was weaker, with inventory rising as Australian rapeseed entered the crushing process and demand remaining stagnant [6] 2. US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 2% week - on - week but increased by 15% year - on - year. As of January 29, 2026, the export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons. The export to China (mainland) decreased by 18% week - on - week but increased by 113% year - on - year. The proportion of exports to China in the total export volume decreased to 56.5% [13] 3. South American Market - Brazil and Argentina - **Weather and Crop Conditions**: In Brazil, most areas had showers, with varying rainfall in the east. The average temperature was nearly 2°C higher than normal. In Argentina, the western region had showers, while the east was dry, and the average temperature was 1 - 5°C higher than normal. The soybean harvest progress in Paraná, Brazil, was 14%, and in Mato Grosso, the estimated yield was adjusted upwards [20][27] - **Production and Sales Forecast**: StoneX expects Brazil's soybean production to reach a record 1.8 billion tons this year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier predicts Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production to be 48 million tons, with a tendency for further downward adjustment [26][28] - **Export Situation**: Brazil's soybean export volume in February is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than that in January and the same period last year. In the 2025/26 season so far, the EU's soybean import volume has decreased by 13%, with a decrease in the share from the US and Ukraine and a slight increase from Brazil [26][29] 4. Domestic Market - Inventory, Profit, and Consumption - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4082 million tons, with a theoretical crushable period of 25 days. It is expected to be 5.04 million tons by next weekend [41] - **Crush Profit**: The domestic spot and futures crush profits declined significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in soybean meal and soybean oil prices and the increase in import costs [41] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of the 5th weekend (January 31), the domestic soybean meal inventory was 947,000 tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory from imported crushing was 100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [49][55] - **Apparent Consumption**: The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 5th week was 1.8539 million tons, higher than 1.7306 million tons last week [51] Part 2: Market Outlook 1. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal indices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, Dalian soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given in the text [70][71][73] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish [75] - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the Brazilian premium is falling slightly. The Argentine drought continues. The USDA report next week will be a key point. The US soybean may fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 cents per bushel. In the domestic market, the soybean meal spot may enter a slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely fluctuate between 2700 - 2800 yuan per ton [76]

【截至 2025 年 4 月 24 日一周，美国大豆出口检验量等数据公布】截至 2025 年 4 月 24 日的一周，美国 大豆出口检验量 43.9 万吨，较一周前下降 21.5%，较去年同期增长 59.1%。2024/25 年度美国大豆出口 检验总量 4312 万吨，同比增长 11.3%，达到全年出口目标的 86.8%。美国对中国装运大豆 20.5 万吨， 当周美国对中国大豆出口检验量占到该周出口检验总量的 46.8%。巴西外贸秘书处数据显示，4 月 1-25 日，巴西大豆出口量为 1295 万吨，高于一周前的 942 万吨，去年 4 月份全月为 1469 万吨。大豆出口均 价为 389.8 美元/吨，比去年同期下跌 8.9%。3 月出口量为 1468 万吨，同比增长 16.5%。本月关税政策 变化较快，前期"对等关税政策"使市场对未来大豆进口有担忧。目前巴西新季大豆到港，未来几月国内 将维持千万吨级到港，国内大豆供应将宽松。4 月前期豆粕现货偏紧，油厂开机率低，库存低于历史同 期，但后期巴西大豆陆续到港，豆粕紧张情况将缓解，油厂开机率将回升，库存将快速回补。巴西新季 大豆卖压加大，升贴水回落，进口成本对豆 ...