Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. agricultural counselor maintains the forecast of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production at 48 million tons, a 5% decrease from the 2024/25 season but still the fourth - highest in the past decade. The soybean export forecast is reduced by 500,000 tons, and the import forecast is lowered by 200,000 tons to 7 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is predicted to be below 180 million tons due to bad weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Strong U.S. soybean exports and potential production cuts in Brazil and Argentina support the upward trend of U.S. soybeans in the external market, and the domestic market shows a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to near - month arrivals, soybean auctions, and basis repair processes [1]. - Indian importers cancelled about 25,000 tons of Russian soybean oil orders and 6,000 - 8,000 tons of South American soybean oil orders due to the increasing premium of soybean oil over palm oil. Palm oil imports in India increased by 10.1% in February compared to January, reaching the highest level since August 2025. The shift from soybean oil to palm oil purchases supports palm oil demand, leading to a significant price increase and a wider spread between soybean oil and palm oil. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and its development needs to be monitored [2]. 2. Summary by Related Content 2.1. Soybean Meal - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production forecast remains at 48 million tons, down 5% from 2024/25, but the fourth - highest in the past decade. The soybean crushing forecast stays at 43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons. The export forecast is cut by 500,000 tons, and the import forecast is reduced by 200,000 tons to 7 million tons, the second - highest in history [1]. - Brazilian consulting agencies predict that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will be below 180 million tons due to bad weather in Rio Grande do Sul, the third - largest soybean - producing state in Brazil [1]. - Strong U.S. soybean exports and potential production cuts in Brazil and Argentina support the upward trend of U.S. soybeans in the external market. The domestic market shows a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to near - month arrivals, soybean auctions, and basis repair processes [1]. 2.2. Edible Oils - Indian importers cancelled about 25,000 tons of Russian soybean oil orders and 6,000 - 8,000 tons of South American soybean oil orders due to the increasing premium of soybean oil over palm oil [2]. - In February, Indian palm oil imports increased by 10.1% to 844,000 tons compared to January, reaching the highest level since August 2025. Soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% to 303,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45.3% to 146,000 tons [2]. - The shift from soybean oil to palm oil purchases supports palm oil demand, leading to a significant price increase and a wider spread between soybean oil and palm oil. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and its development needs to be monitored [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The export of US soybeans continues to show a strong trend, while the production in Brazil is slightly reduced. The expected dry weather in Argentina also supports the strong market trend. Before the soybean reserve release is confirmed, the market will mainly remain volatile [2]. - The tense situation in the Middle East has driven up crude oil prices, which in turn has led to a rebound in the oil market. It is expected that the oil market will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Soybean Meal - As of March 3, 2026, AgRural reported that the 2025/26 soybean harvest in Brazil was 39% complete, far lower than 50% in the same period last year. Due to the drought in Rio Grande do Sul, AgRural lowered the national soybean production forecast by 3 million tons to 178 million tons, but it will still be a record high, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [1]. - According to the USDA压榨月报, the soybean crushing volume in the US in January 2026 was 227.8 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels [1]. - As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year surge of 33.9%, the highest level since April 2023 and exceeding market expectations [1]. - As of the week ending February 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,137,582 tons, compared with the revised 681,545 tons last week and 702,160 tons in the same period last year. As of now in the 2025/26 season, the total US soybean export inspection volume has reached 26,182,723 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.2%, and the US soybean exports have reached 58.4% of the annual export target [1]. 3.2 Oils - According to five industry traders, India's palm oil imports in February increased 10.1% month - on - month to 844,000 tons, reaching a six - month high. India's soybean oil imports in February increased 8.7% month - on - month to 303,000 tons, while its sunflower oil imports in February decreased 45.3% month - on - month to 146,000 tons. India's total edible oil imports in February decreased 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons [2]. - EIA data showed that about 2.8 billion pounds of renewable raw materials were used to produce biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel in December, similar to November but significantly lower than nearly 3.4 billion pounds in December 2024 [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油粕分化 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 豆粕：巴西咨询公司 Patria AgroNegocios 发布的数据显示，截至周五，巴 西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度已达到总种植面积的 39.66%，较去年同期进度高 出 2.38 个百分点，这一比例也高于过去五年同期均值 36.16%。BAGE：截至 2 月 25 日当周，阿根廷农业区的降雨有助于改善土壤墒情，尽管作物评级继续下滑。 目前 69%的大豆作物评级正常至良好，低于一周前的 75%,，去年同期 68%；73% 的种植区水分条件适宜到最佳，高于一周前的 66%，去年同期 71%。大豆评级差 劣率的比例为 29%，一周前 25%，去年同期 32%。 美豆出口延续偏强走势，而巴西二月发运少于预期可能 使得四月到港预期 减少，阿根廷偏干旱的天气预期也支撑市场偏强走势。本周注意抛储公告是否落 地，短期中东局势带动油脂板块走强，使得油粕比再度走扩，豆粕震荡偏弱，不 过在大豆抛储落地之前，很难往下打出空间，保持震荡走势为主。 油脂：印尼统计局周一发布的数据显示，印尼 1 月出口了 224 万吨毛棕榈油 及精炼棕榈油，较去 ...