大豆出口需求

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豆粕:出口预期好转、美豆收涨,连粕反弹,豆一:技术面偏强,反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export prospects of soybeans have improved, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean futures prices, which in turn drives the rebound of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The technical aspect of DCE soybeans is strong, showing a rebound and oscillation trend [1][3]. - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend in the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4,179 yuan/ton during the day - session, up 36 yuan (+0.87%), and 4,189 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 23 yuan (+0.55%). - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 9 yuan (-0.30%), and 3,012 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 34 yuan (+1.14%). - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1,019.75 cents/bushel, up 17.25 cents (+1.72%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.1 dollars/short ton, up 3.2 dollars (+1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat compared to the previous day, with different basis prices for different delivery months. - In East China, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat, with basis prices for different delivery months also remaining stable. - In South China, the price of 43% soybean meal fluctuated between - 10 and +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the basis prices for different delivery months were mostly stable [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.7 million tons per day, down from 5.65 million tons per day in the previous two trading days. - The inventory of soybean meal was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season, which was speculated to be China. - The US reached an agricultural trade agreement with Indonesia, which promised to purchase 4.5 billion dollars of US agricultural products, enhancing the market's confidence in future soybean export demand. - The US dollar was weak due to market rumors that Trump intended to remove the Fed Chairman, which usually enhances the export competitiveness of US agricultural products. - The overall weather conditions in the major soybean - producing areas in the US Midwest are favorable [3].