2026 年 1 月 9 日 南美丰产预期不改 连粕延续震荡 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 豆粕月报 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 当前中国采购2025/2026年度美豆预计达到1000-1100万 吨，市场预期目标为1200万吨，完成度9成左右；1-3月 船期大豆买船计划基本完成，后续采购转向南美市场， 中国采购美豆节奏将放缓；截至2026年1月1日当周， 2025/2026年度美豆累计出口销售量为2858万吨，进度为 64%，去年同期为79%，整体销售进度偏慢。 ⚫ 美国月度油籽压榨报告显示，2025年11月大豆压榨量为 662万短吨，去年同期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export prospects of soybeans have improved, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean futures prices, which in turn drives the rebound of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The technical aspect of DCE soybeans is strong, showing a rebound and oscillation trend [1][3]. - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend in the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4,179 yuan/ton during the day - session, up 36 yuan (+0.87%), and 4,189 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 23 yuan (+0.55%). - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 9 yuan (-0.30%), and 3,012 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 34 yuan (+1.14%). - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1,019.75 cents/bushel, up 17.25 cents (+1.72%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.1 dollars/short ton, up 3.2 dollars (+1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat compared to the previous day, with different basis prices for different delivery months. - In East China, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat, with basis prices for different delivery months also remaining stable. - In South China, the price of 43% soybean meal fluctuated between - 10 and +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the basis prices for different delivery months were mostly stable [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.7 million tons per day, down from 5.65 million tons per day in the previous two trading days. - The inventory of soybean meal was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season, which was speculated to be China. - The US reached an agricultural trade agreement with Indonesia, which promised to purchase 4.5 billion dollars of US agricultural products, enhancing the market's confidence in future soybean export demand. - The US dollar was weak due to market rumors that Trump intended to remove the Fed Chairman, which usually enhances the export competitiveness of US agricultural products. - The overall weather conditions in the major soybean - producing areas in the US Midwest are favorable [3].