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油粕日报:关注近月到港-20260323
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 11:34
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the recovery of Brazilian shipments eases concerns about near - month arrivals, and the acceleration of soybean harvesting in Brazil and improved conditions in Argentina may lead to a narrowing of near - month crushing margins if arrivals are normal and state reserves are released, but the decline space is limited due to high import costs [2] - For oils, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the policy - driven benefits from countries like Indonesia, the US, and Brazil may be realized as crude oil prices remain high. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean and Soybean Meal - As of March 20, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 65.79%, lower than 73.84% in the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average of 66.96% [1] - As of the week of March 18, 78% of Argentine soybeans were rated normal to good, with 79% of planting areas having suitable to optimal moisture conditions, which improved due to rainfall in some regions [1] - As of March 20, the total planned shipment of Brazilian soybeans to China from various ports was 8.538009 billion tons, slightly lower than last week but at a record high for the same period in recent years. The total shipment from Brazilian ports to China in March was 6.535711 billion tons, an increase of 2.624315 billion tons from last week [2] Oils - Brazilian biodiesel producers have the capacity to support a 20% blending ratio, and the association calls on the government to allow a higher blending ratio than the legal 15% to buffer energy shocks [2] - Before the policy release, the price of soybean oil futures has risen by 7% since the end of February, and the price of waste cooking oil has soared by more than 14% to 73 cents per pound [3] - Indonesia's B50, the US's new biofuel policy, and Brazil's B20 are all in preparation, and policy - driven benefits may be realized as crude oil prices remain high [3]
冠通期货研究报告:油粕日报:关注近月到港-20260317
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soymeal, due to Brazil's temporary cancellation of a quarantine measure, Brazilian soybean shipments have returned to normal, and the soybeans will arrive in China to resolve quarantine issues. Although the U.S. soybeans hit the daily limit down overnight, the decline of the domestic market was less than that of the external market due to concerns about near - month arrivals. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to near - month arrivals and the schedule of imported soybean auctions [2]. - For oils, the sharp rise in crude oil has made major biofuel - producing countries eager to act. Policy - related benefits such as Indonesia's B50 and the U.S. new biofuel policy are expected to gradually materialize with high crude oil prices. It is estimated that oils will continue to be strong in the short term, but the changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month need to be vigilant [2]. Summary by Related Content Soymeal - As of March 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4% [1]. - In the second week of March 2026 (10 working days), Brazil cumulatively shipped 6.5073 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average shipment of 650,700 tons/day, a 15.65% decrease compared to 771,500 tons/day in March last year. It cumulatively shipped 636,400 tons of soymeal, with a daily average shipment of 63,600 tons/day, a 36.95% decrease compared to 100,900 tons/day in March last year [1]. - In the 11th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 240,600 tons (4.20%) from last week and an increase of 2.3181 million tons (73.17%) compared to last year. The soymeal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 133,200 tons (17.51%) from last week and a decrease of 55,700 tons (8.16%) compared to last year [1]. Oils - The NOPA reported that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in February was 2.08 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.93 billion pounds and 1.9 billion pounds in January. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in February was 208.785 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 202.73 million bushels and lower than 221.564 million bushels in January [2]. - On March 13, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 910,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and 10,000 tons year - on - year. The rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 470,000 tons year - on - year. The palm oil inventory was 870,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, 130,000 tons month - on - month, and 440,000 tons year - on - year [2].