一边是股市飘红，看着特别热闹。 另一边却是老百姓日子过得紧巴巴，消费信心指数转弱。 这两种情况凑到一块儿。 不少人泛起嘀咕，美国金融这摊子事儿到底会如何发展？ 蓝线是1996年以来的席勒本益比，代表美国股市估值，现在飙升速度不容小觑。 绿线则是密歇根大学消费者信心指数，跌到2008年次贷危机时的低点。 一张图的流出，揭开金融的两面性。 其实早有经济专家提出过"永久收入假说"。 通俗易懂的讲，就是大家花钱也好、存钱也罢。 更多看的是以后能挣多少，而不是现在口袋里有多少。 放在以前，比如2008年之前那几十年，美国人收入稳稳定定往上涨，心里有底，该花钱花钱，该买房买 房，日子过得挺有盼头。 可次贷危机一过，收入增长就慢下来了。 到2020年，收入更是雪上加霜，现在涨得比2008到2019年那阵子还慢。 但没想到，股市偏偏不按常理来，跟现实经济完全脱了钩。 过去三十年，普通人扣掉物价上涨后，实际收入也就涨了一半左右，可股市的实际收益却一骑绝尘。 大家慢慢也习惯了"自己没钱，但股市有钱"的日子，可这种情况哪能一直维持？ 就像气球吹得再大也会破，股市和老百姓的真实生活，早晚得回到一条轨道上。 到时候可能"大重置"就会登 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic and financial implications of Trump's "Great Reset," focusing on the need to address wealth inequality and high government debt through a rebalancing of capital structures and inflationary measures [3][4]. Group 1: Trump's Economic Framework - Trump is seen as attempting to tackle two fundamental issues: the significant wealth gap and the historically high government debt burden [3][4]. - The "Great Reset" aims to adjust the relationship between industrial and financial capital, promoting a shift from financialization to re-industrialization [4][18]. - Without substantial productivity improvements, the policy path is likely to lead to global capital rebalancing, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [4][31]. Group 2: Debt and Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. government debt held by the public is approaching 100% of GDP and is projected to rise to 117% over the next decade, with a persistent deficit rate around 6% [22][26]. - The article highlights the potential for liquidity "drain" and increased volatility in financial markets following the resolution of the debt ceiling, which could trigger risks for high-leverage and credit investors [4][28]. - The anticipated supply shock of U.S. Treasury bonds post-debt ceiling resolution may lead to rising interest rates and liquidity challenges, exacerbating risks in the credit market [28][30]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Asset Reallocation - The article predicts the end of the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative in the stock market since 2012, with European and emerging markets, particularly China, poised for a trend revaluation [5][39]. - A shift in market style is expected, favoring sectors representing industrial capital such as industrials, materials, energy, and consumer goods over those representing financial capital [5][36]. - The article suggests that the valuation of U.S. stocks may decline, with a transition towards value-oriented investments outperforming growth stocks [36][39]. Group 4: Implications for Global Capital Flows - The "Great Reset" is likely to lead to a rebalancing of global capital flows, with a potential outflow from U.S. assets as the dollar weakens [33][39]. - The article emphasizes that the depreciation of the dollar may manifest more significantly against a basket of physical assets, including commodities and strategic resources [33][34]. - Emerging markets, especially China, are expected to benefit from a weaker dollar, which could enhance local demand and attract foreign investment [39].