Core Insights - The coconut water market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2019 to 2025, driven by the natural health consumption trend [1] - The company IF has established a strong market presence through differentiation and strategic partnerships, maintaining a market share of over 30% in the short term [2] Industry Overview - Indonesia and the Philippines contribute 51% of global coconut production, but their coconuts are less suitable for fresh drinking due to lower sweetness; Thailand and Vietnam provide higher sweetness coconuts, with Thailand and Vietnam accounting for 2% and 3% of global production respectively [1] - The supply-demand imbalance has led to increased export demand and high prices for coconut water [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. coconut water market leader, Vita Coco, has maintained a market share of 40%-50% through strong supplier and distributor relationships, while expanding internationally, achieving over 70% market share in the UK [1] - The company IF has leveraged influencer marketing and celebrity endorsements to enhance product visibility and emphasize its "natural health" attributes [2] Company Positioning - IF's raw material procurement and processing are primarily handled by third parties, with General Beverage being the main supplier until 2025, after which the raw material proportion is expected to decrease [1] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $40 million, $55 million, and $69 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 19, and 15 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to IFBH (6603.HK) for its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The coconut water market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2019 to 2025, driven by the natural health consumption trend [2][58]. - IFBH is positioned as a market leader with strong advantages in raw material procurement and brand recognition, maintaining a market share of over 30% in the short term and potentially increasing after the introduction of national standards [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Chain - The coconut production is highly concentrated, with Indonesia and the Philippines contributing 51% of global coconut output, while Thailand and Vietnam have higher sweetness levels, making them more suitable for fresh consumption [1][35]. - The supply chain faces challenges due to limited raw material sources and increasing competition in the absence of regulatory standards [1][51]. Market - The coconut water market in China is expected to reach a scale of USD 1.393 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27% [58]. - The market is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth in penetration rates, as coconut water's share of the juice beverage market has increased from 6.21% in 2019 to 6.80% in 2023 [58][59]. IFBH Company Analysis - IFBH's raw material procurement and processing are primarily handled by third parties, with a significant portion of its coconut water sourced from General Beverage, which is expected to decrease over time [3][20]. - The company has established a differentiated brand identity by emphasizing "Thai imported" products and leveraging collaborations with influencers and celebrities to enhance product visibility [3][15]. - Financial projections indicate that IFBH's net profit is expected to grow from USD 40 million in 2025 to USD 69 million in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 19, and 15 times [4][15].