Core Viewpoint - IFBH's stock has dropped over 30% from its IPO price, reaching a new low of 19.3 HKD, indicating significant market challenges despite its leading position in the coconut water beverage sector [1] Company Summary - IFBH focuses on coconut-based beverages, primarily under the brands if and Innococo [1] - The company has maintained the top position in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China for five consecutive years since 2020, with a projected market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its second-largest competitor by more than seven times [1] - In Hong Kong, IFBH has been the market leader for nine consecutive years, with a projected market share of 60% in 2024 [1] - Globally, IFBH is expected to be the second-largest coconut water beverage company in 2024 [1] Industry Summary - The coconut water industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing competition as new brands emerge and popular brands occupy key market positions [1] - There are indications that smaller companies may exit the market, particularly those that are less competitive [1] - As the industry leader, IFBH possesses a first-mover advantage and emphasizes quality and marketing, although it faces competitive pressures [1] - To support long-term growth, IFBH needs to enhance its channel management capabilities [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to IFBH (6603.HK) for its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The coconut water market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2019 to 2025, driven by the natural health consumption trend [2][58]. - IFBH is positioned as a market leader with strong advantages in raw material procurement and brand recognition, maintaining a market share of over 30% in the short term and potentially increasing after the introduction of national standards [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Chain - The coconut production is highly concentrated, with Indonesia and the Philippines contributing 51% of global coconut output, while Thailand and Vietnam have higher sweetness levels, making them more suitable for fresh consumption [1][35]. - The supply chain faces challenges due to limited raw material sources and increasing competition in the absence of regulatory standards [1][51]. Market - The coconut water market in China is expected to reach a scale of USD 1.393 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27% [58]. - The market is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth in penetration rates, as coconut water's share of the juice beverage market has increased from 6.21% in 2019 to 6.80% in 2023 [58][59]. IFBH Company Analysis - IFBH's raw material procurement and processing are primarily handled by third parties, with a significant portion of its coconut water sourced from General Beverage, which is expected to decrease over time [3][20]. - The company has established a differentiated brand identity by emphasizing "Thai imported" products and leveraging collaborations with influencers and celebrities to enhance product visibility [3][15]. - Financial projections indicate that IFBH's net profit is expected to grow from USD 40 million in 2025 to USD 69 million in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 19, and 15 times [4][15].

Group 1 - The company focuses on the high-potential coconut water sector, with dual brands if and Innococo driving synergistic growth, maintaining the largest market share in mainland China, benefiting from industry expansion and Thailand's upstream and midstream competitive advantages, with projected net profits of 38, 55, and 71 million USD for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 14.7%, 44.2%, and 28.4% respectively [1] - The coconut water market in mainland China is experiencing high demand due to increased health awareness and significant capital influx, with a projected CAGR of 82.9% from 2019 to 2024, and an expected market size of 2.55 billion USD by 2029 [1][2] - IFBH is the leading brand in the coconut water market, expected to capture 33.9% of the market share in mainland China by 2024, with the industry showing a trend of leading brands at the top and fragmentation at the bottom [1] Group 2 - The company positions itself as a provider of pure, high-quality coconut water, with if as the flagship brand contributing the majority of revenue, while Innococo aims to become a second growth driver in the future [2] - The company has enhanced its brand influence through marketing strategies including celebrity endorsements, cross-industry collaborations, and social media promotions, significantly increasing its presence in the domestic market [2] - The company leverages Thailand's upstream and midstream supply chain to establish competitive barriers, ensuring high-quality, low-cost raw material supply and optimizing production costs through partnerships with local beverage factories [2]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH's stock price plummeted by 14.97% at the market opening on August 22, following disappointing mid-term financial results, marking the largest drop since its listing and a historical low for the stock [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, IFBH reported revenue of $94.464 million, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, but net profit fell by 4.8% to $14.976 million, indicating a situation of "increased revenue but decreased profit" [4][9]. - The gross profit margin decreased to 33.7%, down 4.7 percentage points from the same period last year [5][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Coconut water sales surged by 33.3% to $91.506 million, accounting for 96.9% of total revenue, while other coconut-related beverages saw a significant decline of 48.2% [7]. - The flagship brand "if" experienced a revenue increase of 42.1% to $84.083 million, representing 89% of total revenue, while the "Innococo" brand's revenue decreased by 17.6% to $10.381 million [7]. Regional Performance - The largest market for IFBH is mainland China, where revenue grew by 29.8%, contributing 92.6% to total revenue [8]. - Other markets, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, also showed potential for growth, with revenues of $3.997 million and $1.334 million respectively [8]. Cost and Profitability Issues - The decline in profit margins was attributed to the appreciation of the Thai baht against the US dollar and increased administrative expenses, which rose by 122.9% to $6.064 million due to listing-related costs [9][10]. - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 48.4% to $3.359 million, driven by rising logistics costs [10][11]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term profit challenges, IFBH remains optimistic about future growth, focusing on enhancing procurement capabilities, innovation, and expanding its market presence in Australia, the Americas, and Southeast Asia [11]. - The company anticipates that the coconut water segment will be one of the fastest-growing areas within the beverage market, driven by rising health consciousness and plant-based dietary trends [11].

Core Insights - IFBH reported its first half-year financial results since its listing, showing a revenue of $94.46 million, a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [2] - The company’s coconut water revenue reached $91.51 million, growing by 33.3%, and accounted for 96.9% of total revenue [2] - The mainland China market remains the primary revenue source, contributing over 92% of total income, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% [2] Financial Performance - The net profit for the first half of the year decreased by about 5% to $14.976 million, while the gross margin fell by 4.7 percentage points to 33.7% [3] - The decline in gross margin was attributed to the appreciation of the Thai Baht against the US dollar, which negatively impacted the financial results [3] - The reduction in net profit was mainly due to professional fees related to the company's listing [3]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH Limited, known for its coconut water brand "if," successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a significant opening increase, reflecting strong market interest and demand for its products [1][2]. Company Overview - IFBH Limited was founded by Pongsakorn Pongsak, a member of a prominent Thai business family, and has rapidly grown in the beverage sector, particularly in the coconut water market [5][7]. - The company achieved a remarkable revenue of over 1 billion yuan with only 46 employees, resulting in an impressive revenue per employee of approximately 25 million yuan [2]. Market Performance - The coconut water market in China is projected to grow from 5 billion yuan in 2019 to over 260 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a 50-fold increase in just five years [9]. - IF has captured significant market shares, leading the coconut water market in Hong Kong with a 60% share and in mainland China with a 34% share as of 2024 [8]. Competitive Landscape - The success of IF has attracted numerous competitors, including international brands like Vita Coco and domestic giants such as Wahaha and Uni-President, intensifying market competition [10]. - The number of coconut water brands in the market is expected to rise from 32 to over 50 between 2023 and 2025, leading to increased price competition [10]. Pricing and Revenue Trends - The average price of coconut water has decreased by 23.5% from Q1 2023 to Q1 2025, impacting the overall market dynamics [12]. - Despite a stable average price for IF's products, the company faces pressure from the overall price decline in the market [13]. Supply Chain and Production Challenges - IF's production heavily relies on a Thai contract manufacturer, which poses risks related to quality control and supply chain management [15]. - Rising costs of raw materials, particularly coconuts, have led to price adjustments, with a suggested retail price increase of approximately 20% in August 2024 [14].

Group 1 - IFBH Limited was successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 30, 2025 [2] - Ernst & Young acted as the reporting accountant and sustainability advisor for IFBH Limited, receiving high recognition from the management and other intermediaries [2] - IFBH Limited is a leading ready-to-drink juice company based in Thailand, focusing on coconut water beverages and foods [2] Group 2 - IFBH Limited holds the largest market share in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China and Hong Kong for 2024, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan [2] - The company is the second largest in the global coconut water beverage market for 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH, the parent company of "if coconut water," successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a strong market debut with significant investor interest and a high opening price [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - IFBH was founded in 2013 and launched its flagship product, if coconut water, in the Chinese mainland market in 2017 [1] - The company is backed by a Thai beverage manufacturer and has a strong market presence in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion into East Asia and globally [1][2] - The company operates under a light asset model, outsourcing production and packaging to third-party manufacturers, which allows for greater flexibility and scalability [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - IFBH's revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected to be approximately $87.44 million and $158 million, respectively, with net profits of about $16.75 million and $33.32 million [2] - The company holds a dominant position in the Chinese coconut water market, with an estimated market share of 34% in 2024, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [2] Group 3: IPO and Fund Utilization - The IPO raised approximately HKD 1.074 billion, with planned allocations of funds including 30% for enhancing warehousing and distribution capabilities, 22% for brand building, and 20% for strategic alliances and acquisitions [4] - The company aims to strengthen its market position in China while expanding into Australia, the Americas, and Southeast Asia [4]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH Limited, the parent company of the well-known Thai coconut water brand "if," successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a strong debut, reflecting significant investor interest and market confidence in its growth potential in the coconut water sector, particularly in mainland China [1][3]. Company Overview - IFBH was established in 2013 and is headquartered in Singapore, having been spun off from General Beverage, a Thai beverage manufacturer [1]. - The company's primary brands are "if" and "Innococo," with a focus on the coconut water market [1]. Market Position - IF is the leading coconut water brand in mainland China, holding a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its closest competitor by more than seven times [3]. - The mainland Chinese market is IFBH's largest, contributing to its sustained growth and market leadership over the past five years [3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, IFBH's revenue is projected to be approximately $158 million (around 1.158 billion RMB), representing an 80.32% increase from 2023 [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be around $33 million (approximately 242 million RMB), showing a year-on-year growth of 94.12% [4]. - Revenue from the mainland Chinese market is anticipated to reach $146 million (about 1.069 billion RMB), accounting for 92.4% of total revenue [4]. Revenue Sources - Coconut water is the primary revenue driver for IFBH, with projected revenue of approximately 1.106 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 83.7% year-on-year increase and constituting 95.6% of total revenue [4]. Operational Model - IFBH operates a light asset model, relying on outsourcing production to contract manufacturers, which has enabled rapid expansion with a lean workforce of only 46 employees [5][7]. - The company has 12 contract manufacturers located in Thailand, indicating a reliance on a concentrated geographic production base [7]. Supply Chain and Distribution - IFBH's supply chain is heavily dependent on a few distributors, with the top five customers accounting for 97.9% and 97.6% of sales in 2023 and 2024, respectively [7]. - The company does not operate its own warehouses or distribution centers, instead relying on third-party logistics providers for product distribution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company IFBH Limited, established in 2013, has successfully introduced coconut water products to the Chinese market and is expanding its product lines, including the rapidly growing Innococo brand, which combines coconut water with electrolyte water for the sports drink segment [1][4]. Company Overview - IFBH Limited is headquartered in Singapore and was spun off from General Beverage, a Thai beverage manufacturer [1]. - The company plans to raise funds through an IPO, with a global offering of approximately 41.67 million shares, priced between HKD 25.30 and HKD 27.80 per share [3]. Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The funds raised will be used for supply chain diversification, new product development, market expansion, and repayment of potential debts related to agreements [4]. - Key cornerstone investors include UBS AM Singapore, Black Dragon, and several other funds [4][5]. Product Portfolio - The main product, if coconut water, accounts for 95.6% of revenue, with various packaging sizes. The product has a gross margin increase from 34.4% to 36.6% [8]. - The Innococo brand, launched in 2022, has a gross margin increase from 36.9% to 37.4% [8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of USD 158 million (approximately RMB 1.16 billion) for 2024, with a net profit increase from USD 16.75 million to USD 33.32 million [10]. - The company holds a 34% market share in the coconut water market in mainland China and 60% in Hong Kong, significantly outperforming competitors [11]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a supply chain advantage, with over 90% of raw materials sourced from Thailand at a cost 18% lower than competitors [12]. - The business model is based on outsourcing production and logistics, allowing for a lean operational structure [12]. - The company employs a sterile cold-filling technology that extends product shelf life to 12 months, creating a technological moat [15]. Marketing Strategy - The company has engaged in strategic marketing partnerships, including signing a celebrity endorsement deal that significantly boosted sales [16]. - The brand has established a strong recognition in the market, with a high repurchase rate of 38% [16]. Industry Trends - The ready-to-drink soft beverage market in Greater China is projected to grow from USD 131.4 billion in 2024 to USD 185.4 billion by 2029, with coconut water being the fastest-growing segment [17]. - The price of coconuts is expected to remain stable between USD 450 and USD 500 per ton [18].