机构：中邮证券 研究员：蔡雪昱/张子健 投资要点 品牌IF 椰子水延续良好表现，公司同步推进品牌建设与运营完善。IF 椰子水25 年预计保持较快增长势 头，增速领先行业平均水平；Innococo25 年上半年销量出现下滑，下半年受渠道调整影响订单交付，预 计整改后年底将恢复正常，因此我们预计下半年市场表现将继续承压。公司25Q3 市场份额较去年同期 有所提升，目前经销商库存处于合理可控的正常区间。从行业层面来看，2025 年椰子水行业预计整体 增速在27.18%，高于软饮行业整体增速7.78%、碳酸饮料5.52%、包装水12%和功能饮料10%，椰子水行 业整体仍处于高速增长期。 渠道持续扩张，网点拓展成效显著。公司25 年9 月签约中粮名庄荟，预计未来仍将有代理商拓展计划， 渠道布局力度不断加大，26年预计继续推进渠道拓展。成本端随着近几年原产地产能持续扩大，25 年 椰子采购成本有所下降，26 年预计除延续这一成本优化利好外，还将通过更多举措提升供应链运转效 率、进一步优化成本结构。品牌端9 月 Innococo 官宣代言人（时代少年团），同步推出新品，并配合开 展一系列市场营销推广活动。26 年将持续推进 ...

IF椰子水25年预计保持较快增长势头，增速领先行业平均水平；Innococo25年上半年销量出现下滑，下 半年受渠道调整影响订单交付，预计整改后年底将恢复正常，因此该行预计下半年市场表现将继续承 压。公司25Q3市场份额较去年同期有所提升，目前经销商库存处于合理可控的正常区间。从行业层面 来看，2025年椰子水行业预计整体增速在27.18%，高于软饮行业整体增速7.78%、碳酸饮料5.52%、包 装水12%和功能饮料10%，椰子水行业整体仍处于高速增长期。 渠道持续扩张，网点拓展成效显著 智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，IFBH(06603)旗下IF椰子水品牌2025年预计延续较快增长， 行业整体增速领先软饮赛道。公司渠道持续扩张并签约新代理商，同时成本端迎来优化。品牌建设方 面，通过签约代言人、新品推广及加大营销投入强化市场认知。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 品牌IF椰子水延续良好表现，公司同步推进品牌建设与运营完善 公司25年9月签约中粮名庄荟，预计未来仍将有代理商拓展计划，渠道布局力度不断加大，26年预计继 续推进渠道拓展。成本端随着近几年原产地产能持续扩大，25年椰子采购成本有所 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/6/30 2025/7/31 2025/8/31 2025/9/30 2025/10/31 2025/11/30 IFBH 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | --- | | 最新收盘价(港元） | 16.69 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 2.67 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 42 | | | 元） | | | | 52 周高/低(港元） | 47.55/14.49 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 17.81 | | | 市盈率 PE | 17.4 | | | 第一大股东 | General | Beverage | | | Co., Ltd. | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S13405240 ...

公开资料显示，IFBH以椰子基饮料为核心，旗下主要拥有if和Innococo两大品牌。据灼识咨询报告，在 中国内地市场，公司自2020年起在中国内地椰子水饮料市场连续五年蝉联榜首，2024年市场占有率约为 34%，超越第二大竞争对手七倍以上。 值得注意的是，IFBH基石投资者六个月禁售期即将届满。据公司此前发布的公告，其基石投资者须遵 守禁售承诺的最后日期为2025年12月29日。数据显示，此次IFBH共计11名股东发生解禁，累计解禁股 数达1115万股。 IFBH(06603)尾盘涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.74%，报15.48港元，成交额4099.15万港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，IFBH(06603)尾盘涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.74%，报15.48港元，成交额4099.15万港 元。 公开资料显示，IFBH以椰子基饮料为核心，旗下主要拥有if和Innococo两大品牌。据灼识咨询报告，在 中国内地市场，公司自2020年起在中国内地椰子水饮料市场连续五年蝉联榜首，2024年市场占有率约为 34%，超越第二大竞争对手七倍以上。 值得注意的是，IFBH基石投资者六个月禁售期即将届满。据公司此前发布的公告，其基石投资者须遵 守禁售承诺的最后日期为2025年12月29日。数据显示，此次IFBH共计11名股东发生解禁，累计解禁股 数达1115万股。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that IFBH's stock has dropped over 40% from its IPO price, indicating significant market volatility and investor concern [1] - As of the report, IFBH's stock price is at 16.56 HKD, with a trading volume of 19.35 million HKD, reflecting a decline of 4.06% [1] - IFBH has maintained a leading position in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China for five consecutive years, with a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its closest competitor by more than seven times [1] Group 2 - The company operates primarily under two brands, if and Innococo, focusing on coconut-based beverages [1] - The lock-up period for IFBH's 11 cornerstone investors will end on December 29, 2025, which may lead to a significant increase in share liquidity [1] - According to a report by招商证券, the coconut water industry is experiencing rapid growth, and while IFBH faces increased competition, it still holds a relatively stable position as the industry leader [1]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH's stock has dropped over 40% from its IPO price, indicating significant market challenges despite its leading position in the coconut water sector [1] Company Overview - IFBH focuses on coconut-based beverages, primarily under the brands if and Innococo [1] - The company has maintained the top position in China's coconut water market for five consecutive years since 2020, with a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its closest competitor by more than seven times [1] Market Dynamics - The coconut water industry is experiencing rapid growth, but competition is intensifying [1] - As the industry leader, IFBH benefits from a first-mover advantage and strong brand recognition, although it faces challenges from increased competition [1] Future Considerations - The lock-up period for IFBH's 11 cornerstone investors will end on December 29, 2025, which could lead to significant share unlocks [1] - To support long-term growth, IFBH needs to enhance its channel management capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH's stock has dropped over 30% from its IPO price, reaching a new low of 19.3 HKD, indicating significant market challenges despite its leading position in the coconut water beverage sector [1] Company Summary - IFBH focuses on coconut-based beverages, primarily under the brands if and Innococo [1] - The company has maintained the top position in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China for five consecutive years since 2020, with a projected market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its second-largest competitor by more than seven times [1] - In Hong Kong, IFBH has been the market leader for nine consecutive years, with a projected market share of 60% in 2024 [1] - Globally, IFBH is expected to be the second-largest coconut water beverage company in 2024 [1] Industry Summary - The coconut water industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing competition as new brands emerge and popular brands occupy key market positions [1] - There are indications that smaller companies may exit the market, particularly those that are less competitive [1] - As the industry leader, IFBH possesses a first-mover advantage and emphasizes quality and marketing, although it faces competitive pressures [1] - To support long-term growth, IFBH needs to enhance its channel management capabilities [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to IFBH (6603.HK) for its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The coconut water market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2019 to 2025, driven by the natural health consumption trend [2][58]. - IFBH is positioned as a market leader with strong advantages in raw material procurement and brand recognition, maintaining a market share of over 30% in the short term and potentially increasing after the introduction of national standards [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Chain - The coconut production is highly concentrated, with Indonesia and the Philippines contributing 51% of global coconut output, while Thailand and Vietnam have higher sweetness levels, making them more suitable for fresh consumption [1][35]. - The supply chain faces challenges due to limited raw material sources and increasing competition in the absence of regulatory standards [1][51]. Market - The coconut water market in China is expected to reach a scale of USD 1.393 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27% [58]. - The market is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth in penetration rates, as coconut water's share of the juice beverage market has increased from 6.21% in 2019 to 6.80% in 2023 [58][59]. IFBH Company Analysis - IFBH's raw material procurement and processing are primarily handled by third parties, with a significant portion of its coconut water sourced from General Beverage, which is expected to decrease over time [3][20]. - The company has established a differentiated brand identity by emphasizing "Thai imported" products and leveraging collaborations with influencers and celebrities to enhance product visibility [3][15]. - Financial projections indicate that IFBH's net profit is expected to grow from USD 40 million in 2025 to USD 69 million in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 19, and 15 times [4][15].

Group 1 - The company focuses on the high-potential coconut water sector, with dual brands if and Innococo driving synergistic growth, maintaining the largest market share in mainland China, benefiting from industry expansion and Thailand's upstream and midstream competitive advantages, with projected net profits of 38, 55, and 71 million USD for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 14.7%, 44.2%, and 28.4% respectively [1] - The coconut water market in mainland China is experiencing high demand due to increased health awareness and significant capital influx, with a projected CAGR of 82.9% from 2019 to 2024, and an expected market size of 2.55 billion USD by 2029 [1][2] - IFBH is the leading brand in the coconut water market, expected to capture 33.9% of the market share in mainland China by 2024, with the industry showing a trend of leading brands at the top and fragmentation at the bottom [1] Group 2 - The company positions itself as a provider of pure, high-quality coconut water, with if as the flagship brand contributing the majority of revenue, while Innococo aims to become a second growth driver in the future [2] - The company has enhanced its brand influence through marketing strategies including celebrity endorsements, cross-industry collaborations, and social media promotions, significantly increasing its presence in the domestic market [2] - The company leverages Thailand's upstream and midstream supply chain to establish competitive barriers, ensuring high-quality, low-cost raw material supply and optimizing production costs through partnerships with local beverage factories [2]