1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the natural rubber market will experience range - bound fluctuations in the short term. Overseas weather improvements are putting pressure on raw material prices, and there is a risk of further weakening in the cost support for rubber prices. However, the reduction in the arrival of standard rubber at ports provides some support for rubber prices, and the expected inventory build - up has not materialized yet [100][101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - Cambodia's latex exports in the first nine months of 2025 decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons, with export revenue down 1%. Domestic latex consumption increased by 102% [5]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history, with production reaching 327.6 million and sales 322.6 million, up 17.1% and 14.9% year - on - year respectively [6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 19.2% year - on - year to 611.5 million tons [7]. - The ANRPC called for setting a living - wage rubber price for rubber farmers [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - The rubber market declined overall this week, with a significant drop in RU. On October 17, 2025, the closing price of RU2601.SHF was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 4.05% from the previous period; NR2601.SHF was 12,155 yuan/ton, down 1.82% [10][12]. - The basis and monthly spreads changed. On October 17, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 595 yuan/ton, up 16.78% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was 10 yuan/ton, down 75% from the previous period [17]. - Other spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The substitution prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber also declined [18][31]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU and NR increased, while the settled funds decreased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, rainfall in the south was slightly lower than the same period, and rainfall in the northeast increased. In China, precipitation in domestic production areas eased compared to last week [41][42]. - The prices of Thai cup rubber and smoked sheets, as well as the glue prices in Hainan and Yunnan, decreased, while the Thai glue price increased slightly [44]. - The price difference between Thai water and cup rubber widened, and the price difference of Hainan glue between entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole milk factory increased [47]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber improved, while the production profits of smoked sheets and concentrated latex declined. The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, while that in Yunnan slightly rebounded [52][55]. - In August 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports to China also showed similar trends [63][66]. - In September 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but exports to China decreased month - on - month [69]. - In August 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly [73]. - In August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and exports to China were also at a high level year - on - year [76]. - In August 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) were 52.08 million tons, up 9.68% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly, with the all - steel tire inventory continuing to rise and the semi - steel tire inventory continuing to decline [84]. - In August 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover in August, and the sales of passenger cars continued to grow strongly in September [85]. - In August 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [88]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The natural rubber inventory continued to decline, with the decline in light - colored rubber being significantly greater than that in dark - colored rubber. The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber also decreased [92][97]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and the cup rubber price was 50.2 Thai baht/kg. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [101]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, with data affected by the National Day holiday [101]. - **View**: The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate within a range [100]. - **Valuation**: On Friday, the basis between whole milk and the main RU contract was - 595 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract was - 145 yuan/ton, narrowing by 75 yuan/ton [101]. - **Strategy**: - For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or expect range - bound fluctuations for RU. - For inter - period trading, observe the arrival volume at ports and consider a positive spread strategy. - For inter - variety trading, conduct observations [101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The outlook for natural rubber this week is oscillating weakly, and the weak pattern may continue. Supply growth expectations are strong due to the expected decrease in rainfall in the producing areas, which restricts the upside of rubber prices. After the holiday, Qingdao inventory may show a slight accumulation. With insufficient short - term market drivers and the impact of macro - level tariffs, the natural rubber price is expected to be in a weak pattern. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing or taking a short - selling approach on rallies for RU, considering a shift from positive - spread to reverse - spread trading based on arrival conditions, and observing for cross - variety trading [101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) called for setting a livelihood - sustaining rubber price for rubber farmers [5]. - In August 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Domestic consumption increased year - on - year and month - on - month [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck sales soared by about 82% year - on - year, and the market has achieved six consecutive months of growth [7]. 3.2 Price - From September 26th to the present, RU, NR, and TSR20 prices declined, while the price of Japanese RSS3 rose. As of October 10, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15315 yuan/ton, 12380 yuan/ton, 170.40 cents/kg, and 312.40 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 1.00%, - 0.68%, - 1.27%, and 1.33% [10][12]. - The basis and monthly spreads showed changes. For example, the full - cream to RU01 basis was - 715 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, with a 12.80% month - on - month increase and a 37.55% year - on - year increase [16]. - Other spreads: RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased. Non - standard basis spreads and light - dark color spreads also had respective changes [20][26]. - Substitute prices: The cost support for butadiene rubber weakened, and the supply also dragged down the short - term spot market [33]. 3.3 Fund Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds fluctuated significantly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR recovered, and the settled funds also fluctuated significantly [36]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - Weather in producing areas: Rainfall in southern Thailand is slightly lower year - on - year, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand is approaching the end. During the National Day holiday, precipitation in Yunnan and Hainan increased [43][44]. - Raw material prices: Raw material prices continued to diverge. The prices of Thai cup lump and smoked sheets increased slightly, while the prices of Thai, Hainan, and Yunnan latex decreased [46]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex production both decreased [54]. - Upstream processing profits: Rubber processing profits continued to recover [55]. - Delivery profits: The delivery profits of whole - milk rubber recovered [58]. - Exports: In August, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports to China also had different trends for different types of rubber. In September, Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but exports to China decreased. In August, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly. In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and exports to China were also at a high level [66][72][76]. - Imports: In August, China imported 52.08 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 9.68% month - on - month increase and a 5.39% year - on - year increase. The imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and Indonesian mixed rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Indonesian standard rubber decreased significantly [83]. 3.4.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some sample enterprises carried out shutdown maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The inventory of all - steel tires continued to rebound, while the inventory of semi - steel tires decreased marginally [86]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales continued to recover year - on - year and month - on - month, and passenger - car sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - Road transport turnover: In August, the freight turnover of road transport improved slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the social inventory of natural rubber continued to decline, with a larger decline in light - colored rubber than in dark - colored rubber. As of October 10, the futures inventories of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber on relevant exchanges all decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [95][98].