Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to weak demand and a decline in connections, with a revenue of 3.046 billion yuan, down 14.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262 million yuan, down 41.95% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the weak performance is primarily due to a sluggish real estate market affecting installation business, delayed price adjustments for residential gas, and a soft downstream natural gas demand [7] - The gradual implementation of natural gas pricing policies across various regions is expected to benefit the company, with a potential recovery in residential price differentials [7] - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2023 to 2025, with actual payout ratios of 97.1%, 126.9%, and 139.7% for the respective periods, indicating a strong return for shareholders [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 4.947 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 4.179 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 606.31 million yuan in 2023 to 301.06 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 40.19% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.42 yuan per share in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 22.60 [1] - The company’s total assets are estimated to decrease from 6.216 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.800 billion yuan in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to weak gas demand and a decline in connection services, leading to a significant drop in net profit [8] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share for the first half of 2025, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 140% [8] - The gradual implementation of residential gas pricing policies across various regions is expected to benefit the company, potentially leading to a recovery in price differentials [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,947 million yuan, with a decline to 4,375 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 606.31 million yuan in 2023 to 397.80 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 20.97% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 0.85 yuan in 2023 to 0.56 yuan in 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 17.84 in 2025 [1] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2023 to 2025, with actual payout ratios of 97.1%, 126.9%, and 139.7% for the respective years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of China Petroleum [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 753.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46.8 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year and up 46% quarter-on-quarter. The oil and gas sectors maintained stable operations, and emerging industries like new energy and new materials showed rapid growth, leading to stable performance that slightly exceeded expectations [7] - The upstream segment's profit increased due to higher natural gas production and sales. In Q1 2025, the operating profit from oil and gas and new energy was 46.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30 billion yuan, or 7%. The average oil price was $70 per barrel, down 7.2% year-on-year, while the domestic natural gas price was 2.29 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.1% year-on-year. The net production of oil and gas was 467 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 0.7% year-on-year [7] - The downstream refining and chemical sectors faced profit pressure, with operating profit of 5.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 27 billion yuan, or 34%. The sales segment also reported weak profitability, with an operating profit of 5 billion yuan, down 17 billion yuan, or 25% year-on-year, due to reduced market demand and lower sales volumes [3][7] - The natural gas sales segment saw a significant profit increase, with an operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.2 billion yuan, or 10% year-on-year, attributed to optimized resource procurement and sales strategies [7] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, projecting a net profit of 166.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 52%, totaling 86.8 billion yuan. The estimated dividend yield for A shares is 5.9%, and for H shares, it is 8.8% before tax [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2023A is 3,012.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 161.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.52% year-on-year increase. The EPS for 2023A is estimated at 0.88 yuan per share [1][8] - For 2024A, the total revenue is expected to be 2,938 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%. The net profit is projected at 164.7 billion yuan, a 2.02% increase year-on-year, and the EPS is estimated at 0.90 yuan [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratio for A shares is projected to decrease from 9.00 in 2023A to 8.71 in 2025E, indicating an improving valuation [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth and maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected net profit of 166.8 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a 1.32% year-on-year increase [8] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the natural gas sector, which has significantly contributed to profit growth [8] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable pricing policies in the natural gas market, leading to improved profitability [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,012.81 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.99% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 161.41 billion RMB, representing an 8.52% increase year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is forecasted at 0.88 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.32 for A shares and 5.55 for H shares [2] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 860 billion RMB for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 52.2% [8] Segment Performance Summary - The upstream segment, including oil and gas, is expected to see an increase in operating profit to 159.7 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7% [8] - The refining and chemical segment is facing profit pressure, with a projected operating profit of 21.4 billion RMB in 2024, down 42% year-on-year [8] - The natural gas sales segment is anticipated to achieve a significant profit increase of 25% year-on-year, reaching 54 billion RMB in 2024 [8]