Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to weak gas demand and a decline in connection services, leading to a significant drop in net profit [8] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share for the first half of 2025, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 140% [8] - The gradual implementation of residential gas pricing policies across various regions is expected to benefit the company, potentially leading to a recovery in price differentials [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,947 million yuan, with a decline to 4,375 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 606.31 million yuan in 2023 to 397.80 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 20.97% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 0.85 yuan in 2023 to 0.56 yuan in 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 17.84 in 2025 [1] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2023 to 2025, with actual payout ratios of 97.1%, 126.9%, and 139.7% for the respective years [8]

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,012,812 | 2,937,981 | 3,039,996 | 3,002,751 | 3,003,101 | | 同比（%） | (6.99) | (2.48) | 3.47 | (1.23) | 0.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 161,414 | 164,676 | 166,843 | 172,062 | 178,656 | | 同比（%） | 8.52 | 2.02 | 1.32 | 3.13 | 3.83 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.98 | | P/E（A） | 9.00 | 8.82 | 8.71 | 8.45 | 8.13 | | P/E（H） | 6.07 | 5.95 | 5.88 | 5.70 | 5.49 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投 ...