2025 年的供需情况如何？ 供给端方面，2025 年的净融资约为 3 万多亿，其中产业债特别是央企产业债 贡献最大。城投债延续缩量趋势，今年规模约 2000 亿左右。央企加杠杆信号 明显，民企融资由负转正，为 21 年以来首次。地方国企因资本开支需求增加 也有融资需求。金融债方面，二永净供给与去年持平，而券商发债规模随权益 市场回暖而增加。此外，今年科创类金融和普惠性金融发行量显著增加。 需求 端方面，以理财和基金为主力，但理财对信用资产的持仓比例有所下降，即使 在理财规模增加情况下，对信用资产的绝对持仓体量微降。而基金中的短债基 金减仓较多，但 ETF 和二级债基提供了增量支持。今年 32 只信用类 ETF 规模 达 5,000 亿，而二级债基规模增幅接近 90%。 固收-2026，信用低静态、高动态 20251211 摘要 2025 年信用债净融资预计超 3 万亿，产业债尤其是央企产业债为主要 贡献者，城投债延续缩量趋势，规模约 2000 亿。央企加杠杆信号明显， 民企融资由负转正，为 2021 年以来首次，地方国企融资需求增加。 需求端方面，理财和基金是主力，但理财对信用资产的持仓比例有所下 降，绝对 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Q1 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings reveal significant trends in the bond market, highlighting the performance of various banks and securities firms in the issuance of bonds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The total issuance of Panda bonds in 2024 exceeded 208.25 billion RMB, while in Q1 2025, the issuance by foreign institutions in the domestic market reached 41.6 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 38.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The overall issuance of domestic credit bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 3.77 trillion RMB, reflecting a decline of about 12.61% year-on-year [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased to approximately 8.35 trillion RMB in Q1 2025, up 11.97% from the previous year [10]. Group 2: Rankings and Performance - In the Bloomberg Q1 2025 China Bond Rankings, the top three positions were held by Bank of China (5.918%), CITIC Bank (5.675%), and Industrial Bank (5.297%) [7]. - For corporate bonds, CITIC Securities (13.450%), CITIC Jiantou (9.988%), and former Guotai Junan Securities (8.053%) maintained their top three positions [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond rankings (excluding certificates of deposit), the top three were held by Amundi (12.248%), HSBC (7.117%), and Standard Chartered Bank (5.021%) [7]. Group 3: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 2.66 trillion RMB, a significant increase of about 78.26% year-on-year [12]. - The issuance included about 0.38 trillion RMB in general bonds and approximately 2.28 trillion RMB in special bonds, with debt resolution remaining a key focus [12]. Group 4: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 401.4 billion RMB in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 35.36% [16]. - The issuance of "Kung Fu Bonds" surpassed 30 billion USD (approximately 219.2 billion RMB), showing a significant increase of over 122.20% compared to the previous year [16].