来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下美联储下一任主席的消息，出现了大反转，此前的热门人选，出现重大变化！ 预测市场的交易员们对下一任美联储主席有了新的"头号人选"：贝莱德的高管里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）。 据悉，里德尔在华尔街的从业经验，以及他对推动央行改革持开放态度，提升了他竞逐该职位的可能性 之后，里德尔的胜算随之上升。 这位资产管理巨头的固定收益首席投资官，已从前美联储理事凯文·沃什手中夺回第一位置。根据预测 市场平台Kalshi上的交易员数据，里德尔被提名担任该职位的概率约为60%，而沃什为25%。 知情人士称，这位贝莱德的高管不仅被认为"很像"一名央行官员的形象，同时他提出的一系列改造美联 储的想法也引起了特朗普的注意。 对里德尔有利的另一点是：与另外的入围者不同，他从未在美联储工作过，因此被认为不受该机构"体 系内"束缚。 其他竞争者包括：白宫国家经济事务主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯·沃勒，以及前美联储官员凯 文·沃什。 本周出席达沃斯世界经济论坛的企业高管和投资者也在私下表达了对里德尔的支持。 特朗普周四对记者表示，他已完成对候选人的面试，并且心中已有属意人选，但 ...

Core Insights - The selection process for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve has concluded, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra overseeing the final interviews of 11 candidates, narrowing it down to four main contenders for President Trump's decision [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Evaluation - The interview process lasted approximately two hours, focusing on candidates' views on interest rate policies and strategies for exiting special monetary policies during financial crises [3]. - The leading candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governor Waller, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, Rick Rieder, with Rieder's performance standing out among external candidates [3]. - Warsh and Waller have publicly supported the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, aligning with Secretary Becerra's reform direction, while Hassett's policy views are consistent with the administration [3]. Group 2: Implications of Leadership Change - The leadership transition at the Fed is occurring at a critical time, with market participants closely monitoring potential policy changes that may arise from the new Chair, particularly regarding discussions on central bank independence [3][4]. - Current Chair Jerome Powell's term will last until May 2026, marking an eight-year tenure, and this personnel change is expected to have significant implications for U.S. monetary policy and global financial markets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has concluded, with four main candidates being considered by President Trump after interviews conducted by Treasury Secretary Becerra [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Becerra completed interviews with 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, focusing on their views on interest rate policies and the exit strategy for quantitative easing [2]. - The final decision will be made by President Trump, who has expressed a preference for candidates including former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, current Governor Waller, and White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, with Rick Rieder from BlackRock also performing well in interviews [2][6]. Group 2: Candidates' Perspectives - Kevin Walsh supports the idea of reducing the Fed's balance sheet, aligning with Becerra's views on central bank reform [7]. - Current Governor Waller has also outlined plans to reduce the Fed's asset holdings, which have expanded significantly due to the purchase of government securities during financial crises [8]. - Kevin Hassett, as a member of Trump's inner circle, shares similar policy views with the President, while Rick Rieder's extensive experience in global fixed income is recognized [9]. Group 3: Market Concerns - The Federal Reserve is currently facing turmoil, with concerns about the independence of the central bank due to Trump's actions, including appointing allies and attempting to dismiss a board member [11]. - Ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence have led to market volatility and increased bets that the next chair will adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [12].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has concluded, with President Trump set to choose from four leading candidates amid concerns over the Fed's independence and potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin completed the final round of interviews for the Federal Reserve Chair candidates, which included 11 individuals [1]. - The candidates were rigorously questioned for two hours on their views regarding interest rate policies and the exit strategy from quantitative easing [1]. - The final candidates include Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and external candidate Rick Rieder, who performed notably well in interviews [1][2]. Group 2: Focus on Federal Reserve Reforms - Mnuchin emphasized the need for candidates to address structural reforms within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding its balance sheet and the perceived overreach of its powers [2]. - Candidates were asked about their opinions on Mnuchin's recent article advocating for comprehensive reforms and criticizing quantitative easing as an experimental monetary policy [1][2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - The ongoing turmoil at the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about its independence, especially following Trump's appointment of allies and attempts to dismiss certain board members [3][4]. - Market volatility has increased due to the administration's repeated attacks on the Fed's traditional independence in setting interest rates, leading to speculation that the next chair may pursue more aggressive rate cuts [3].