2026年2月3日亚洲交易时段早盘，美元指数小幅震荡于97.516水平，延续上一交易日的反弹走势，交投 情绪相对清淡，市场静待日内重磅经济数据与央行决议指引方向。上一交易日美元指数最终收于 97.609，日内波幅收窄，此前受美联储主席提名人选落地影响，美元指数已录得短线小幅反弹，上周四 至今累计上涨0.8%，终结了1月以来的下跌态势。 此次美元指数的短线反弹，核心驱动力来自特朗普提名凯文.沃什出任美联储主席的消息落地。市场对 沃什的政策预期偏向鹰派，其主张的"降息与缩表并行"政策逻辑，以及对美联储独立性的强调，显著缓 解了此前市场对央行政治化的担忧，推动资金回流美元资产。机构普遍认为，沃什的提名有助于稳定美 元汇率，降低其持续走弱的单边风险，短期利好美元走势。Wedbush分析师指出，沃什领导下的美联储 或终结"美联储看跌期权"，强化市场纪律，这一转变将利好美元资产。不过市场对其鹰派立场仍保持理 性，Evercore ISI强调，沃什是务实主义者，并非传统意识形态上的鹰派，不宜过度追捧其鹰派预期。 从技术面来看，美元指数当前呈现"短线反弹动能初现，但中长期空头趋势未改"的特征。日线级别上， 相对强弱指标(RS ...

Core Insights - In 2025, the total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded $36 trillion, with foreign investors holding a record $9.16 trillion in July, indicating a complex shift in global financial dynamics [1][3] - Major economies are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries while others are increasing their investments, which threatens the dollar's status as the world's safest asset [1][3] Group 1: China's Actions - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $25.7 billion in July 2025, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009, as part of a strategic adjustment that has been ongoing for over three years [3] - From April 2022, when its holdings fell below $1 trillion, China has cumulatively reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by over $280 billion by 2024, further decreasing to $688.7 billion by October 2025 [3] - Other countries like Canada and India are also reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Canada selling $57.8 billion in April 2025, a reduction of over 13% [3] Group 2: Shift to Gold - In response to the perceived risks of U.S. Treasury bonds, countries are increasingly turning to gold, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2,300 tons) by August 2025, representing 7.3% of its foreign reserves [4] - Global central banks are projected to increase gold's share in official reserves to 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro for the first time [4] - Approximately 95% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, viewing gold as a stable asset during crises [4] Group 3: Diverging Attitudes Towards U.S. Treasuries - While countries like Japan and the UK are increasing their U.S. Treasury holdings, Japan added $3.8 billion in July 2025, reaching $1.15 trillion, and the UK bought $41.3 billion in the same month, pushing its holdings to a record $899.3 billion [4][6] - Japan's increase is largely due to the need for stability amid currency fluctuations and its political-military alliance with the U.S., while the UK seeks to solidify its relationship with the U.S. post-Brexit [6] Group 4: Concerns Over U.S. Fiscal Sustainability - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6] - In May 2025, Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1, reflecting growing investor concerns [6] - Political gridlock and policy uncertainty in the U.S. have further eroded international investor confidence, exemplified by a 43-day government shutdown in October 2025 [6][7] Group 5: Global De-dollarization Efforts - China is not only reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold but is also building a "financial escape route" with the cross-border payment system (CIPS) reaching a transaction volume of 175 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 87% [9] - The share of the dollar in global official foreign exchange reserves has declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.7% in 2025, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization [9] - Countries are exploring alternative systems, such as the EU's INSTEX payment mechanism and BRICS nations promoting local currency trade settlements, contributing to a significant shift in the global financial landscape [9]