首席点评：央行继续增持黄金 2 月 7 日，中国人民银行更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月末， 中国黄金储备为 7419 万盎司(约 2307.57 吨)，较 2025 年 12 月末的 7415 万盎 司(约 2306.32 吨)增加 4 万盎司(1.24 吨)，为连续第 15 个月增持黄金。央行 15 个月共增持黄金 139 万盎司(约 43.23 吨)。其中，2025 年全年，中国黄金储备 增加了 86 万盎司(约 26.75 吨)。美国上周初请失业金人数录得 23.1 万人，预估 21.2 万人，前值 20.9 万人。美国 1 月 24 日当周持续申领失业救济人数为 184.4 万人，预估 185 万人，失业数据上升显示经济放缓风险增加，可能减少能源需求， 对液化石油气现货价格构成利空。2 月 6 日周五举行的伊美谈判因双方在关于谈 判内容是否只聚焦核问题方面存在分歧，伊朗问题反复，油价受消息面影响波动。 美国政府正准备发布一项通用许可证，允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油，委内瑞拉 原油产量存增长预期。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：贵金属有所反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2307.57 tons) as of January 2026, up by 40,000 ounces (1.24 tons) from December 2025 [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the forecast of 212,000, indicating increased economic slowdown risks which may reduce energy demand [1] - The ongoing negotiations between Iran and the U.S. regarding nuclear issues have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of increased oil production from Venezuela [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have rebounded after significant volatility, primarily influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has cooled interest rate cut expectations and strengthened the dollar [2] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, with expectations that it will return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious regarding silver due to its higher volatility compared to gold, and the current gold-silver ratio being relatively low [2] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.83% amid indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S., with both parties agreeing to continue discussions [3] - Kazakhstan's oil exports are expected to decline by up to 35% in February due to slow recovery from a fire at the Tengiz oil field [3] - Copper prices rose by 1.39%, with tight supply conditions continuing, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [3] Group 4 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a dichotomy, with mainstream broad-based ETFs facing significant redemptions while thematic ETFs in sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals are gaining investor interest [8]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.460 | 105.910 | 105.940 | 108.320 | 108.325 | 112.17 | 112.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.398 | 102.424 | 105.850 | 105.895 | 108.240 | 108.240 | 111.7 | 111.78 | | | 涨跌 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.060 | 0.045 | 0.080 | 0.085 | 0.470 | 0.530 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.04% | 0.0 ...

Group 1 - The central government's new policy document aims to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing targeted assistance, and ensuring stable income growth for farmers [1] - The document outlines six key areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, advancing rural construction tailored to local conditions, strengthening institutional innovation, and enhancing the Party's leadership over agricultural work [1] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced a rebound influenced by two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which boosted the dollar index, and a significant short-term increase in precious metals prices, particularly silver, leading to profit-taking and increased market volatility [2][20] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, and it is expected to return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments, while silver prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the short term [21] Group 3 - The crude oil market saw a 1.78% increase, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and concerns over increased Venezuelan oil exports exacerbating supply surplus fears [3][15] - The domestic retail prices for refined oil have increased, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [10] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with significant fluctuations in the military and banking sectors, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to seasonal trends and policy support [4][12] - The financing balance decreased by 6.009 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [12] Group 5 - The international shipping index for European routes increased by 5.22%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on spot freight rates leading up to the holiday season [34]

（本文作者付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 日前，美国元首宣布提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席，而就在消息公布当天，全球资本市场迎来 巨震，其中美股指集体下挫，贵金属价格出现史诗级暴跌，而美元和美债利率却迎来反弹。 事实上，美联储主席的更迭历来都是全球经济格局中的重要事件。在当前全球经济面临高通胀、金融条 件收紧以及地缘政治紧张的关键时期，沃什的上任更加受到市场关注。作为前美联储理事、斯坦福大学 胡佛研究所研究员以及拥有丰富华尔街经验的决策者，沃什的货币政策理念和领导风格很可能会显著影 响美联储的政策走向，进而通过复杂的全球传导机制对美国和中国两大经济体产生深远影响。 基于上述背景，本文将系统分析沃什上任后可能的政策转向，继而评估这些变化对中美经济与金融市场 的潜在影响。 一、沃什的从业经历与政策倾向 了解凯文·沃什的职业经历与政策立场，是研判一切问题的原点。 不同于鲍威尔的务实风格，沃什以"鹰派底色+务实灵活"的双重特征著称，其横跨政府、金融、学术三 大领域的丰富履历，使其既深谙政策制定的政治逻辑，又具备金融市场的实操视野，更拥有学术研究的 战略格局，这种多元背景也使其成为美国元首平衡"政策可预期性"与"央行 ...

2026年2月3日亚洲交易时段早盘，美元指数小幅震荡于97.516水平，延续上一交易日的反弹走势，交投 情绪相对清淡，市场静待日内重磅经济数据与央行决议指引方向。上一交易日美元指数最终收于 97.609，日内波幅收窄，此前受美联储主席提名人选落地影响，美元指数已录得短线小幅反弹，上周四 至今累计上涨0.8%，终结了1月以来的下跌态势。 此次美元指数的短线反弹，核心驱动力来自特朗普提名凯文.沃什出任美联储主席的消息落地。市场对 沃什的政策预期偏向鹰派，其主张的"降息与缩表并行"政策逻辑，以及对美联储独立性的强调，显著缓 解了此前市场对央行政治化的担忧，推动资金回流美元资产。机构普遍认为，沃什的提名有助于稳定美 元汇率，降低其持续走弱的单边风险，短期利好美元走势。Wedbush分析师指出，沃什领导下的美联储 或终结"美联储看跌期权"，强化市场纪律，这一转变将利好美元资产。不过市场对其鹰派立场仍保持理 性，Evercore ISI强调，沃什是务实主义者，并非传统意识形态上的鹰派，不宜过度追捧其鹰派预期。 从技术面来看，美元指数当前呈现"短线反弹动能初现，但中长期空头趋势未改"的特征。日线级别上， 相对强弱指标(RS ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a 9-day holiday aimed at boosting the holiday market, enriching cultural life, and stimulating consumer spending, as outlined in the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" released by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments [1] - The plan focuses on traditional cultural practices, family reunions, shopping, and travel, expanding the supply of quality goods and services to invigorate physical commerce [1] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)," aiming to establish a world-class metropolitan area centered around the capital [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, the main crude oil contract fell by 4.8% to 450 RMB per barrel, while gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 3.86% and 20% respectively, closing at 1045 RMB per gram and 20600 RMB per kilogram [1] - The decline in precious metals is attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which strengthened the US dollar and led to profit-taking in the market [2][3] - The US crude oil production averaged 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [4] Group 3 - The US stock market showed a rebound with significant trading volume of 2.61 trillion RMB, driven by a combination of technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, and economic recovery [5][13] - The financing balance decreased by 23.543 billion RMB to 2.698689 trillion RMB, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [5][13] - The overall market outlook for February remains positive, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of investment projects [5][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has been nominated by President Trump to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with a policy inclination towards "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," which has alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Policy Stance - Warsh, born in 1970, has a background in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley and served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, making him the youngest in that role at the time [3]. - Initially seen as a supporter of free trade and a hawkish figure on monetary policy, Warsh has shifted to support Trump's tariff policies and calls for accelerated rate cuts [3]. - He advocates for lower interest rates while proposing a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and easing bank regulations, which contrasts with typical rate cut cycles that often involve halting or expanding the balance sheet [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following Warsh's nomination, the dollar strengthened, and gold prices fell sharply, with gold experiencing a significant drop after reaching a historical high of $5,500 per ounce [6]. - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also saw substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000, reflecting market volatility in response to Warsh's potential policies [7]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's policies could lead to a complex financial environment where nominal interest rates decline while overall liquidity tightens, creating a dynamic interplay between tightening and easing effects [4][5]. Group 3: Impact on Domestic Financial Markets - The Fed's policy changes under Warsh could influence the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, with potential short-term pressure on the yuan if the dollar strengthens due to tightening expectations [8]. - Despite external influences from the Fed, China's economic fundamentals are expected to provide stability for the yuan, with the country maintaining a principle of "self-determination" in its monetary policy [9][10]. - Warsh's potential combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" suggests that the overall monetary policy direction may remain accommodative, which could sustain favorable external financial conditions for China [10].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 有色金属 宏观情绪降温，金属价格普调 贵金属：沃什鹰派担忧叠加高拥挤度，金银创历史最大单日跌幅。北京时间 1 月 31 日凌晨， 现货白银价格一度暴跌 36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过 12%， 盘中跌穿每盎司 4700 美元，遭遇 40 年来单日最大跌幅。周五特朗普政府准备提名凯文·沃 什为新一任美联储主席，但此次抛售或为多重因素叠加，既包括美联储主席人选的公布，也 涉及更宏观的资金流动层面，多杀多放大了行情的下跌幅度。沃什支持"降息与缩表并行" 的政策组合，其逻辑是通过缩减资产负债表控制通胀，为降低名义利率创造条件。但降息旨 在增加市场流动性、刺激经济增长，而缩表则是通过减少美联储资产负债表规模来回收流动 性、抑制通胀。两者操作方向相反，可能导致政策效果相互抵消，引发市场对政策意图的困 惑。我们认为其政策主张仍将受到美国经济基本面和外部条件的掣肘，特朗普一系列政策行 为所引发的海外投资者对美债担忧仍然存在，若缺乏美联储支持，长债利率下降可能仍有难 度，后续关注新提名主席表态。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛 ...