2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 沃什将如何重塑政策路径与市场预期？ ——解构美国系列第十八篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散——解构美国 系列第十七篇（2026-01-21） 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 胶着的医保谈判，不确定的政府停摆—— 《大国博弈》系列第九十二篇（2025-12- 15） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政府停摆迫近，影响 ...

据美国CNBC网站报道，引发贵金属市场跳水的"哨声"，首先是30日特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储 主席，分析称，凯文·沃什长期以鹰派立场著称，尽管近期公开支持降息以迎合特朗普，但市场认为他 不太可能激进降息。这一预期推动美元迅速反弹，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨 0.73%，在汇市尾市收于96.989，令以美元计价的大宗商品对全球买家吸引力下降。 叠加近期贵金属价格不断创下新高，许多投资者选择在高位获利了结，加剧了卖盘交易，进一步放大市 场波动。目前尚不清楚30日的暴跌是否会开启趋势反转，或者"仅仅"是整体上升趋势中一次姗姗来迟的 中期调整。 来源：央视财经 本周，国际贵金属价格遭遇"过山车"行情，持续走高的金银价格在当地时间30日迎来大跳水。据美国 CNBC网站报道，引发贵金属市场跳水的"哨声"，首先是30日特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 叠加近期贵金属价格不断创下新高，许多投资者选择在高位获利了结，加剧了卖盘交易，进一步放大市 场波动。 国际贵金属价格遭遇 " 过山车 " 行情 本周，国际贵金属价格遭遇"过山车"行情，金价一度逼近每盎司5600美元，银价则突破每盎司120美 元，均刷 ...

目前，沃什还担任斯坦·德鲁肯米勒家族办公室Duquesne的合伙人，同时是胡佛研究所的杰出访问学者和斯坦 福商学院讲师。 在此之前的一场访谈节目中，沃什毫不避讳地指出了当前美联储体系的沉疴，并抛出了一个论断："通胀是一 种选择（Inflation is a choice）。" 他驳斥了将通胀归咎于供应链或地缘政治的借口，坚持认为央行完全有能力决定价格水平，现在的局面正是美 联储错误选择的结果。 美联储下一任主席人选出炉。 刚刚，美国总统特朗普宣布，提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任美联储主席。沃什生于1970年，是美联储主席 诸多热门人选中最为年轻的一位。他毕业于斯坦福大学和哈佛法学院，分别获得学士学位和法学博士学位。他 曾在摩根士丹利并购部门担任副总裁兼执行董事。 有分析指出，如果沃什最终执掌美联储，市场可能会看到美联储政策框架的显著调整，这将对全球金融市场和 经济前景产生深远影响。德银表示，沃什的政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 特朗普宣布 北京时间1月30日晚间，美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任美联储主席。 公开资料显示，沃什拥有横跨学术界、监管机构和投资界的履历，他对金融市场和货 ...

来源：滚动播报 德银分析沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。德银认为"降息 与缩表并行"实施前提是监管改革降低银行的储备金需求，短期内可行性存疑。市场需要密切关注新任 主席能否在特朗普要求大幅降息的压力下保持独立性，以及其政策信誉的建立过程。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is gaining traction, with a unique policy stance of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" being analyzed by Deutsche Bank [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Kevin Hassett, initially seen as a frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chair position, is facing resistance from Trump allies, leading to a decline in his predicted success rate from over 80% to 51% [1]. - Kevin Warsh's odds have significantly increased from approximately 11% to 44% following Trump's endorsement [1]. Group 2: Warsh's Background and Experience - Warsh, unlike Hassett who has a PhD in economics, has a legal background and extensive experience in both public and private sectors, including a tenure as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [3][4]. - He has been critical of the Federal Reserve's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [3][6]. Group 3: Warsh's Critique of QE and Policy - Warsh has expressed concerns that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, suggesting that the Fed's actions have distorted market signals [6][7]. - He has criticized the Fed's reliance on data and forward guidance, asserting that these tools have limited effectiveness in normal economic conditions [9][10]. Group 4: Future Policy Implications - Deutsche Bank notes that while Warsh advocates for rate cuts, he is not inherently dovish and has previously held hawkish views, particularly regarding balance sheet issues [11][12]. - The feasibility of his proposed policies, such as reducing the Fed's balance sheet while lowering interest rates, hinges on regulatory reforms that lessen banks' reserve requirements [12]. - The market is expected to scrutinize the independence of the new Fed Chair amid pressures for significant rate cuts from Trump, with skepticism about immediate policy shifts following the leadership transition [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, highlighting the shift in market sentiment and the implications of his policy proposals, particularly the combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Kevin Hassett, initially seen as a frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position, faces resistance from Trump's allies, leading to a decline in his market odds from over 80% to 51% [2]. - Kevin Warsh's odds have significantly increased from approximately 11% to 44% following Trump's endorsement [2]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that if Warsh is elected, he would advocate for a unique policy approach of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [3][4]. - The feasibility of this approach hinges on regulatory reforms that would lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [4]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh, a lawyer with extensive experience in both public and private sectors, served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [6][7]. - He has been a vocal critic of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [8][12]. Group 4: Recent Policy Outlook - Despite advocating for lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank suggests that Warsh is not structurally dovish, having previously held more hawkish views during his tenure at the Fed [22][23]. - Warsh's recent statements indicate a potential support for lowering policy rates, but this may come at the cost of reducing the Fed's balance sheet size, contingent on regulatory reforms [24][25]. Group 5: Market Implications - The article emphasizes that regardless of who is chosen as the next Fed Chairman, the market will likely test the new leader's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [26]. - Investors should prepare for a gradual policy adjustment process rather than an immediate shift in Fed policy following the new Chairman's appointment [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting his unique policy stance of "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" and the challenges this poses in the current regulatory environment [1][6][22]. Group 1: Warsh's Candidacy and Policy Stance - Warsh is seen as a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, alongside Kevin Hassett, amid concerns about Hassett's close ties to President Trump [3][5]. - Deutsche Bank analyzes that if Warsh is elected, he would support interest rate cuts while also advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet [6][22]. - The feasibility of implementing "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" hinges on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [7][25]. Group 2: Warsh's Background and Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh has a legal background and extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [9][10]. - He has been critical of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [11][15]. - Warsh believes that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, and he has expressed concerns about the Fed's involvement in fiscal policy matters [15][16]. Group 3: Future Policy Implications - Despite advocating for lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank notes that Warsh is structurally not dovish, particularly regarding balance sheet issues [22]. - The article suggests that the new Fed Chair will face pressure to maintain independence amid Trump's calls for significant rate cuts, which may complicate the credibility of their policy commitments [8][26]. - Investors should prepare for a gradual policy adjustment process rather than an immediate shift in Fed policy following the new Chair's appointment [27][28].