来源：陕西法制网 2025年最后一个月的交易已经开始，虽然12月历来是股市表现较好的月份，但我们仍可能看到类似11月 那样剧烈的市场情绪波动。这是因为本月将举行两次重要的央行会议，其结果可能会对全球市场造成冲 击。美联储将于12月9日至10日召开会议，降息是普遍预期的结果；而日本央行（BOJ）则可能在本月 晚些时候（12月18日至19日）的会议上宣布降息。 由于美联储成员目前正处于12月会议前的媒体"静默期"，经济数据将成为判断降息可能性的关键。在劳 动力市场方面，本周我们将看到ADP私营部门就业数据、Challenger裁员人数和首次申请失业救济人 数，而核心个人消费支出价格指数（将于周五公布）将是衡量通胀的焦点。市场预期美联储本月将降 息，但就业或通胀数据的任何意外利好都可能对降息预期造成不利影响。 编辑：许沥心 鉴于日本通胀率已连续44个月高于2%的目标水平，日本央行似乎已具备加息的条件。日本央行行长上 田文雄在本周的讲话中也暗示了这种可能性。结果会如何呢？由于市场预期美日收益率差将缩小，日本 国债收益率持续飙升。10年期日本国债收益率飙升至1.88%，创下2008年6月以来的最高水平，印证了 这一点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining a cautious stance, prioritizing stability over premature tightening, despite signs of rising inflation expectations and improving household demand [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Global central banks are at different stages of the economic cycle, with the BOJ facing domestic price pressures and a more volatile external environment [1] - The BOJ is concerned about the impact of rising inflation on consumption, while the Federal Reserve focuses on the persistence of inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Policy Challenges - There are challenges in translating stimulus measures into sustained growth and consumption, despite some signs of progress [1] - The market is beginning to anticipate significant policy measures to be taken around October, but the BOJ remains cautious [1] - Policymakers appear to be seeking time to assess the evolution of potential dynamics, given the slowdown in consumption recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Deputy Minister of Finance, Galipolo, emphasizes that the central bank should avoid sudden policy adjustments, as maintaining a passive stance can be very dangerous [1] Group 1 - The central bank's approach should be proactive rather than reactive to ensure economic stability [1] - Sudden policy changes can lead to market volatility and uncertainty [1] - A passive attitude from the central bank may result in negative economic consequences [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan may face a situation requiring decisive action despite existing uncertainties [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Naoki Tamura, indicates that the central bank might need to take strong measures in response to economic conditions [1] - **Economic Uncertainty** - There are ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape that could influence the Bank of Japan's decision-making process [1] - **Future Actions** - The potential for decisive action suggests that the Bank of Japan is closely monitoring economic indicators and may adjust its policies accordingly [1]