原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB BRENT 1- dated bre | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | 2025/11/18 | 60.74 | 64.89 | 65.20 | -0.74 0.46 | -4.15 | 0.15 | 199.93 | 19.08 | 270.11 | 48.56 | | 2025/11/19 | 59.44 | 63.51 | 64.66 | - 0.51 | -4.07 | 0.22 | 193.21 | 17.64 | 263.57 | 47.19 | | 2025/11/20 | 59.00 | 63.38 ...

Core Insights - The global crude oil market is experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the United States [1][2] - The futures curve for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is in a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak spot demand as future contracts are priced higher than near-term contracts [1][2] - U.S. crude oil exports reached their highest level since July 2024 in October, further confirming the ample supply situation [1][2] - In contrast, the Brent crude oil futures curve has remained relatively flat since March, highlighting differing levels of oversupply in various regional markets [1][2]

数据不会说谎：美国原油报60.73美元/桶，布伦特原油报64.67美元/桶，单日涨幅虽小，却像暗流般牵 动全局。而黄金市场因美联储降息预期升温而狂欢，反倒衬托出油价的脆弱——它从来不只是商品，更 是经济脉搏的缩影。想想看，油价跌了，通勤成本降了，可这种"便宜"能持续多久？当全球局势诡谲多 变，我们是该趁低囤油，还是学会与波动共舞？ | 时间 | ITI | 布伦特 | 原油变化率 | 预期调整幅度 | 天数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11月11日 | 60.13 | 64. 06 | -0.55% | 预计下跌30元/吨 | 1 | | 11月12日 | 60.73 | 64.67 | -0.28% | 预计下跌15元/吨 | 2 | 结尾处，我不禁想问：这轮下跌是真反弹的前奏，还是暴风雨前的宁静？如果油价长期低迷，会是普通 人的福音，还是经济放缓的预警？答案，或许就藏在下一个加油站的计价器里。我的封神名场面 回想过去一周，国际油价走势就像一部悬疑剧，涨少跌多成了主旋律。正是这股力量，让国内油价在11 月11日上涨后，迅速调转车头。新一轮调整刚一开局， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end by 2025, leading to clearer economic conditions as key macroeconomic data will resume publication once the government is operational again [1] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to keep the government running until at least the end of January, awaiting House approval and presidential signature [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment suggests that the resumption of labor market and inflation data may not indicate a positive economic outlook, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts next month [3] - Traders are optimistic about the end of the government shutdown and the possibility of the Fed lowering rates again after key economic data is released [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar has reacted to the expectations of a December rate cut, with the dollar index (DXY) falling below the psychological level of 100 [3] - The decline of the dollar is not uniform, as the Japanese yen remains weak due to expectations of increased fiscal spending by the new Japanese government [4] Group 4 - Gold and silver prices have risen due to the weakening dollar, with gold trading above $4,100 and potential to reach $4,235 if it breaks resistance levels [4] - Silver prices have also gained attention, returning to the $50 mark amid expectations of a supply shortage in 2026 [4] Group 5 - Oil prices have been boosted by the news of a potential end to the government shutdown, with U.S. crude prices rising above $60 per barrel [6] - However, the upcoming increase in supply from OPEC+ may limit further price increases [6]

这轮油价的波动，背后折射出的更是普通民众生活的辛酸。一位出租车司机老王无奈地表示："上半年油价飙到8块多，我一天光油钱就得多花30块，等于白 跑了两趟。现在好不容易降下来点，又要涨，平台抽成还不减，这生意怎么做？"数据显示，对于网约车司机而言，油费支出在其收入中占比超过三成，每 一次油价的调整都如同"割肉"。普通家庭也并非置身事外，蔬菜的运输成本、快递的运费，最终都会与油价联动，羊毛出在羊身上，消费者承担了最终的代 价。难怪有网友调侃，油价涨一毛，白菜可能就要涨一块，这简直就是"隐形税"。 尽管怨声载道，但我们仍需理性看待油价的波动。其本质是市场规律的体现，是全球供需博弈的结果。我们不能仅仅盯着短期的涨跌，而应学会"踩点加 油"。例如，在调价窗口关闭前的晚上，加油站往往会排起长队，聪明的车主会选择提前储油。此外，新能源汽车的普及率正逐年攀升，今年电动汽车销量 占比已超过30%，这无疑为长期应对油费压力提供了新的可能。然而，能源结构的转型需要时间，在燃油车仍是主流的当下，政策制定者更应倾听民生诉 求，避免"油贵如水，车贱如泥"的现象寒了人心。 这场看似只是数字跳动的油价"倒计时"，实际上是一面放大镜，映照出民生 ...

Core Viewpoint - European major stock markets experienced a positive start, with significant gains in indices and rising commodity prices, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The German DAX index increased by 0.72% [1] - The French CAC40 index saw a slight rise of 0.09% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.18% [1] - The Russian MOEX index performed notably well with a gain of 1.35% [1] - In the US pre-market, the three major indices collectively rose, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.35% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Gold prices surpassed the $4000 mark, reaching $4014.59 per ounce [1] - Wheat prices increased to $5.40 per bushel [1] - International oil prices also rose, with US crude at $61.19 per barrel and Brent crude at $65.01 per barrel [1] Group 3: Currency Exchange - The euro appreciated against the US dollar, rising by 0.33% to 1.1527 [1]

Core Insights - Analysts' oil price forecasts remain largely unchanged despite increasing OPEC+ production targets and weak demand, which offset geopolitical supply risks [1][3] - The average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.99 per barrel, an increase of approximately $0.38 from the previous month [1][3] - The average price forecast for U.S. crude oil in 2025 is $64.83 per barrel, slightly higher than the September estimate of $64.39 [1][3] - Analysts predict a potential oversupply in the oil market in 2026, with excess supply estimated between 190,000 barrels per day and 3 million barrels per day [1][3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 路透调查预计，美国原油2025年平均价格为每桶64.83美元，高于9月份预测的每桶64.39美元；布伦特原 油2025年平均价格为每桶67.99美元，高于9月份预测的每桶67.61美元。 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds holding record short positions in Brent crude oil failed to capitalize on the recent price increase [1] - As of October 21, hedge fund managers increased their short positions in Brent crude oil by 40,233 contracts to a historical high of 197,868 contracts [1] - The market had anticipated an oversupply of crude oil, evidenced by rising offshore oil inventories, leading to a bearish stance among hedge funds [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, disrupting market expectations and potentially supporting oil prices [1] - The sanctions could lead to a reduction of up to 600,000 barrels per day in Russian oil production, alleviating the oversupply situation [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of the weekly U.S. crude oil inventory report, making the recent trading data particularly significant for market sentiment analysis [2]

Group 1 - Thai and Japanese refiners are actively increasing their procurement of U.S. crude oil for the remainder of the year, driven by the competitive pricing of low-sulfur U.S. crude and a desire to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil [1][2] - Thai refiners are diversifying their crude oil sources to mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions that have significantly affected profitability, while Japanese refiners are also seeking to lessen their reliance on Middle Eastern oil amid escalating conflicts [1] - PTT, Thailand's state-owned oil giant, has established an "emergency team" to monitor global economic conditions and optimize procurement strategies, including increasing U.S. crude purchases [1] Group 2 - In August, Thailand imported 146,682 barrels per day of U.S. crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, while the total imports from January to August rose by 30.5% to 151,250 barrels per day, accounting for nearly 16% of Thailand's total crude imports [2] - Japan's imports of U.S. crude oil in August were 68,918 barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, but still above the three-year average; from January to August, imports increased by 42.9% to 85,017 barrels per day [2] - The pricing advantage of U.S. crude is driving demand from Thai and Japanese refiners, with the Brent-Dubai spread turning negative, indicating that various low-sulfur crudes from the Americas, North Sea, and Southeast Asia are more economically competitive than Middle Eastern crude [2] Group 3 - The increase in U.S. crude imports is also serving as a diplomatic tool to support trade negotiations; for instance, PTT's imports reached a record high of 7.3 million barrels in June, enhancing Thailand's strategic position in ongoing trade talks with the U.S. [3] - Thailand successfully reduced the U.S. reciprocal tariff from 36% to 19% effective August 6, which is expected to further strengthen its negotiating position by committing to import more U.S. crude [3] - Japan's significant increase in U.S. crude purchases is anticipated to provide leverage in future trade negotiations, despite the U.S. agreeing to impose a 15% import tariff on Japanese goods [3]