石油价格持续下跌之际，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）成员国正竭力保住自身市场份额，如今它们又不得 不应对一个意料之外的新变数：特朗普总统试图掌控委内瑞拉的石油供应，并推动市场向有利于美国消 费者的方向转变。 知情人士透露，长期主张提高石油产量、并将每桶50美元定为目标油价的特朗普，正计划推出一项全面 举措，以修复委内瑞拉油田并推动其石油产出投放市场。这一举措将重塑全球石油版图——美国将得以 掌控欧佩克创始成员国之一的石油产出，再加上美国自身可观的产量，其或将在本已深陷供应过剩困境 的国际市场中，扮演足以引发市场动荡的角色。 尽管分析人士认为，重振委内瑞拉破败不堪的石油工业需要巨额投资与漫长时间，但他们指出，即便短 期内石油产量出现小幅回升，再加上长期的进一步增产，都可能加剧全球石油市场的供需失衡，进而推 动油价进一步走低。 欧佩克成员国如今面临一道艰难的选择题：是否要通过削减产量来提振油价？但此举不仅可能损害本国 的财政收入与市场份额，还可能影响它们与这位行事捉摸不定的美国总统之间的关系。 凯投宏观首席气候与大宗商品经济学家David Oxley表示："各方都有责任维护自身利益，但同时又不能 去'激怒猛兽'。这种内 ...

2026.01. 05 本文字数：3727，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 刚过去的2025年，国际石油市场迎来了五年来最大的年度跌幅。作为全球原油价格基准的布伦特原 油全年下跌约19%，美国原油价格跌幅则接近20%。此前OPEC+在实施多年减产措施后扩大产量， 再加上美国原油去年末的日产量创下超过1380万桶的历史新高，多重因素共同对市场形成压力。 对于新年伊始委内瑞拉的政治危机，机构普遍认为短期内不太可能对能源市场造成巨大冲击。 哈里斯金融集团管理合伙人考克斯（Jamie Cox）评论道，"市场的整体反应将较为平淡 。大型石 油企业及钻井公司的股价可能会迎来一波买盘支撑，因为市场会逐渐滋生对重建委内瑞拉石油产业所 带来潜在利好的投机情绪。" 加拿大皇家银行资本市场全球大宗商品策略及中东与北非研究主管克罗夫特（Helima Croft）观点类 似，"考虑到委内瑞拉石油行业已历经数十年的衰退，且美国此前在政权更迭与国家重建方面的过往 记录并非全然成功，此次对委的相关行动无疑是一项艰巨的任务。"她表示。 拉皮丹能源咨询公司（Rapidan Energy）分析师麦克纳利（Bob McNally）称 ...

Core Insights - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased last week due to a decline in imports and an increase in refinery activity [1] Group 1: Inventory Changes - Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell last week, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] - The reduction in inventories was attributed to a drop in imports, which suggests a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Refinery Activity - Refineries operated at a slightly faster pace, contributing to the decrease in crude oil inventories [1] - Increased refinery throughput may indicate stronger demand for refined products in the market [1]

能源咨询公司科普勒（Kpler）估算，9月至12月，欧盟进口的美国液化天然气与原油总额为296亿美元。 科普勒高级总监吉莉安·博卡拉（Gillian Boccara）表示，这份无约束力的贸易协议对推动欧盟额外采购美国能源产品几乎毫无作用。 她指出，大宗商品采购以双边谈判为主，且受运费、利润等经济因素驱动，而非政治承诺；同时她补充称，这一采购承诺"并不现实"。 欧盟对美能源年度进口额为737亿美元，远不足2026-2028年7500亿美元采购承诺年均2500亿美元目标的三分之一。作为协议一部分的铀等核能源产品，在 欧盟对美能源贸易中占比不足1%。 尽管欧盟向美国总统特朗普承诺未来三年购买7500亿美元美国能源，但过去四个月，其对美油气采购支出却下降了7%。 自8月与美国达成贸易协议以来，欧盟采购的美国液化天然气（LNG）数量有所增加，但油气价格下跌导致总支出较去年同期减少。 科普勒的博卡拉称，即便欧盟将所有俄罗斯天然气替换为美国供应，进口额也难以增至当前的三倍。"除了明显是为减少美国关税外，我们实在看不到这一 协议的合理依据，"她补充道，"数据根本算不通。" 随着美国、卡塔尔、加拿大等国计划扩大产能，市场预计未 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is forecasted to show strong growth in the third quarter, with median annualized growth expected at 3.2%, attributed to a significant pullback in imports following earlier increases due to tariffs [1][12] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached extreme bullish levels at 8.5, which historically precedes market pullbacks, with global equities typically declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months [2][3][13] - The Fund Manager Survey indicates the most bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts [3][13] Market Performance - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.3%, reflecting a prevailing fear of missing out among investors [6][13] - Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1.5%, benefiting from a decline in the yen, which is expected to enhance export earnings for Japanese companies [7][13] Currency Movements - The yen reached record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, prompting concerns from Japan's currency officials about excessive declines and potential intervention [8][13] - The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, having gained 0.3% recently, with a potential target of 158.00 for further upward movement [9][13] Equity Inflows - Equity markets experienced record inflows of $98 billion last week, primarily driven by U.S. equity funds, while Chinese equity funds saw significant inflows as well [10][13] Commodity Prices - Silver prices reached a new record at $67.48 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 134%, while gold rose to $4,362 per ounce [11][13] - Oil prices increased following U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers, with Brent crude rising to $60.88 per barrel and U.S. crude to $56.89 per barrel [11][13]

美国已在加勒比地区部署大规模军事力量，并对据称向美国贩运毒品的船只发动了致命打击。这些打击 行动的合法性存在争议，并已受到国会审查。 周五，美国总统特朗普对媒体表示不排除与石油输出国组织（OPEC）成员国委内瑞拉开战的可能性， 此后美国原油价格上涨。 "我不排除这种可能，不，"特朗普在电话采访中对一家新闻机构表示。他拒绝说明推翻总统尼古拉斯· 马杜罗是否是他的目标。 特朗普表示："他（马杜罗）非常清楚我想要什么，他比任何人都更清楚。" 目前石油市场并未显示出供应中断的重大风险。美国原油价格上涨44美分，涨幅0.78%，至每桶56.59美 元；全球基准布伦特原油上涨57美分，涨幅0.95%，至每桶60.39美元。 本周早些时候，由于交易员将乌克兰可能达成和平协议、从而向本已供应充足的市场注入更多俄罗斯原 油的可能性计入价格，美国基准油价跌至四年低点。 特朗普一直在加大对马杜罗的压力。上周，在扣押一艘油轮后，他下令对南美国家沿海受制裁的油轮实 施封锁。 目前石油市场并未显示出供应中断的重大风险。美国原油价格上涨44美分，涨幅0.78%，至每桶56.59美 元；全球基准布伦特原油上涨57美分，涨幅0.95%，至每桶 ...

来源：陕西法制网 2025年最后一个月的交易已经开始，虽然12月历来是股市表现较好的月份，但我们仍可能看到类似11月 那样剧烈的市场情绪波动。这是因为本月将举行两次重要的央行会议，其结果可能会对全球市场造成冲 击。美联储将于12月9日至10日召开会议，降息是普遍预期的结果；而日本央行（BOJ）则可能在本月 晚些时候（12月18日至19日）的会议上宣布降息。 由于美联储成员目前正处于12月会议前的媒体"静默期"，经济数据将成为判断降息可能性的关键。在劳 动力市场方面，本周我们将看到ADP私营部门就业数据、Challenger裁员人数和首次申请失业救济人 数，而核心个人消费支出价格指数（将于周五公布）将是衡量通胀的焦点。市场预期美联储本月将降 息，但就业或通胀数据的任何意外利好都可能对降息预期造成不利影响。 编辑：许沥心 鉴于日本通胀率已连续44个月高于2%的目标水平，日本央行似乎已具备加息的条件。日本央行行长上 田文雄在本周的讲话中也暗示了这种可能性。结果会如何呢？由于市场预期美日收益率差将缩小，日本 国债收益率持续飙升。10年期日本国债收益率飙升至1.88%，创下2008年6月以来的最高水平，印证了 这一点。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $4,180 per ounce on December 2, with a daily decline of 1.36% and further falling to $4,170 per ounce, resulting in a total daily drop of 1.52% [1][2] - Concurrently, New York futures gold also declined, falling below $4,210 per ounce with a daily drop of 1.55%, and further decreasing to below $4,200 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 1.76% [3][4] - However, on the morning of December 3, spot gold rebounded, surpassing $4,210 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.13% [5] - Silver's main contract showed strong performance, rising by 1% to 13,627.00 yuan on December 2, and further increasing by 2%, currently reported at 13,762.00 yuan [6][7] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. crude oil inventories saw an increase, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a rise of 2.48 million barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 1.859 million barrels the previous week [8] Group 3: Macro and Market Impact - The European Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves saw a slight adjustment, increasing by 300 million euros to 328.4 billion euros [9] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated due to policy expectations, with a 0.1% decline to 99.33 following comments from Trump regarding potential Federal Reserve chair candidates [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss a peace plan next week, with Russia being open to the idea, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US yet. The risk premium for gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the crude oil monthly spread has declined, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching the highest level since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US oil rigs and fracturing operations has risen, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have increased. Recently, there is still room for downward adjustment in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With a supply-demand surplus, a short-selling strategy for crude oil is maintained, with a forecasted Brent price range of $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US's draft plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [6][9] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Price Data Summary - From November 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil prices fluctuated from $60.74 to $58.84, with a change of $0.78; Brent crude oil prices dropped from $64.89 to $62.22, a decrease of $0.34; Dubai crude oil prices rose from $65.20 to $64.50, with a change of $0.11. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The Tuapse refinery in Russia resumed oil processing on November 21. - After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude oil is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to the Brent crude oil spot price (CIF). Some Indian refiners have changed their stance due to the lower prices and are considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers. - The US is preparing to launch a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days. - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $30 - $40 per barrel range in 2027. [3][4] 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report, in the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.028 million barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8%. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.641 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.95 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.728 million barrels per day compared to the previous week. - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a decrease of 4.25%. The inventories of major refiners and social entities decreased, while those of local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refiners rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated. [4][5][16]

Core Insights - The global crude oil market is experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the United States [1][2] - The futures curve for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is in a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak spot demand as future contracts are priced higher than near-term contracts [1][2] - U.S. crude oil exports reached their highest level since July 2024 in October, further confirming the ample supply situation [1][2] - In contrast, the Brent crude oil futures curve has remained relatively flat since March, highlighting differing levels of oversupply in various regional markets [1][2]