Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China, drawing parallels with Japan's historical experience during the 1990s economic downturn [2][3]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2023 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [1]. - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% rate for undergraduate graduates [1]. - The job market is increasingly competitive, with the employment rate for undergraduate graduates being lower than that of vocational school graduates [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons from Japan - Japan experienced a similar "degree devaluation" phenomenon in the 1990s, where a significant economic downturn led to a drastic drop in employment rates for university graduates [10][12]. - The 1990s marked a turning point for Japan, where the employment rate for graduates fell from 80% to below 70%, leading to a generation labeled as "lost" due to their struggles in the job market [10][30]. - The Japanese government attempted various measures to alleviate the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students, but these efforts did not address the underlying issues of economic stagnation and job market demand [21][35]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The article highlights that the root cause of degree devaluation is not merely the oversupply of graduates but the lack of corresponding job opportunities due to economic stagnation and a failure to innovate [35][37]. - Japan's experience illustrates that without significant economic growth and innovation, an increase in educational attainment can lead to a surplus of graduates without adequate job prospects [35][37]. - The article concludes that creating new job opportunities through industrial upgrades and innovation is essential to prevent degree devaluation and ensure that higher education translates into economic productivity [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China and draws parallels with Japan's historical experience during the 1990s economic crisis, highlighting the challenges faced by graduates in securing employment and the implications for the labor market [4][11]. Group 1: Current Situation of Graduates - The number of university graduates in China is expected to reach a record 12.22 million this year, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is projected to continue until 2038, when the number is expected to peak at 14.45 million [4]. Group 2: Historical Context from Japan - In the 1980s, Japan experienced a booming economy where university graduates were highly sought after, with many receiving multiple job offers before graduation [6][7]. - The economic bubble burst in the early 1990s led to a drastic decline in employment opportunities, with the employment rate for graduates dropping from 80% in 1992 to below 70% by 1995 [8][9]. - The term "lost generation" was coined to describe those who graduated during this period, facing severe employment challenges and often resorting to temporary or low-paying jobs [11][21]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Failures - The Japanese government implemented several initiatives to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for postdoctoral researchers, but these measures failed to improve the job market significantly [15][16]. - The increase in the number of graduate students did not correspond with a rise in employment rates, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals without job opportunities [15][16]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 led to a rise in non-regular employment, which further complicated the job market for graduates [17][21]. Group 4: Lessons Learned and Future Implications - Japan's experience illustrates that simply increasing the number of graduates does not guarantee employment; economic innovation and industry upgrades are crucial for creating job opportunities [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for a shift from protecting existing industries to fostering new growth and innovation to prevent a repeat of the degree devaluation phenomenon [25].