找不到稳定工作不是你的错 非正式员工的急剧增加始于上世纪九十年代中期到二十一世纪初的就业冰河期。在此期间，大批应届生 （男女皆有）没能找到稳定的工作。明明不想当非正式员工、却只能找到这类工作的人，被称为"非自 愿的非正式员工"。尼特族和飞特族也是在这一时期引起了全社会的关注。 当时，年轻人自己和身边的人都还乐观，觉得等大环境好了，就能找到正式职位。毕竟泡沫经济是1991 年刚破灭，人们对经济复苏仍抱有期待。父母对飞特族儿女也比较宽容，认为他们眼下还在摸索试错的 阶段，过了三十就会定下来。那个年代的父母也有足够的家底给儿女啃。 谁知事与愿违—萧条持续的时间远超预期，大环境迟迟没有好转。进入二十一世纪后，经济有所好转， 但受益的只有应届生求职市场，非应届生的处境依然艰难。于是这批人以非正式员工的身份干到了四五 十岁，人称"失落世代"。 失落世代进入非正式就业市场，并非"自我选择、自我负责"的结果。由于毕业时开放的正式职位太少， 他们总无法摆脱非正式员工的身份，收入上不去，只得在社会底层苦苦挣扎。企业缩减招聘名额，导致 求职市场竞争激烈，"椅子"供不应求，又岂是他们的责任。 1990年的非正式员工不过881万人。到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China, drawing parallels with Japan's historical experience during the 1990s economic downturn [2][3]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2023 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [1]. - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% rate for undergraduate graduates [1]. - The job market is increasingly competitive, with the employment rate for undergraduate graduates being lower than that of vocational school graduates [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons from Japan - Japan experienced a similar "degree devaluation" phenomenon in the 1990s, where a significant economic downturn led to a drastic drop in employment rates for university graduates [10][12]. - The 1990s marked a turning point for Japan, where the employment rate for graduates fell from 80% to below 70%, leading to a generation labeled as "lost" due to their struggles in the job market [10][30]. - The Japanese government attempted various measures to alleviate the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students, but these efforts did not address the underlying issues of economic stagnation and job market demand [21][35]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The article highlights that the root cause of degree devaluation is not merely the oversupply of graduates but the lack of corresponding job opportunities due to economic stagnation and a failure to innovate [35][37]. - Japan's experience illustrates that without significant economic growth and innovation, an increase in educational attainment can lead to a surplus of graduates without adequate job prospects [35][37]. - The article concludes that creating new job opportunities through industrial upgrades and innovation is essential to prevent degree devaluation and ensure that higher education translates into economic productivity [35][37].

Group 1 - The article highlights the record number of 12.22 million university graduates entering the job market in 2024, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [3] - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% rate for undergraduate graduates [3][4] - The trend of increasing university graduates is expected to continue until 2038, peaking at 14.45 million, indicating a persistent job market challenge for new graduates [5] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "degree devaluation" is not unique to China, as Japan has experienced similar issues over the past 30 years, providing valuable lessons [6] - In the 1980s, Japan's economy was booming, leading to high demand for university graduates, with many receiving multiple job offers before graduation [8][9] - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s resulted in a significant decline in employment opportunities, with the employment rate for university graduates dropping from 80% in 1992 to below 70% by 1995 [12][18] Group 3 - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for doctoral candidates, but these efforts did not effectively resolve the underlying issues [24][25] - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 led to a rise in non-regular employment, with a significant increase in the proportion of non-standard employment types, which negatively impacted job security and wages for graduates [28][32] - By 2024, Japan's employment rate for new graduates reached a historic high of 98.1%, attributed to demographic changes such as an aging population and declining birth rates [36][37] Group 4 - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the employment market's challenges lies in the shrinking demand for labor, exacerbated by a lack of innovation and industrial upgrades in Japan [39][40] - Japan's failure to adapt to new industrial trends has led to a situation where the supply of highly educated individuals exceeds the demand for their skills, resulting in a devaluation of degrees [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan, drawing parallels with the current situation in China, particularly regarding the challenges faced by university graduates in the job market [3][4][29]. Group 1: Degree Devaluation in Japan - The belief that obtaining a university degree guarantees a stable future was prevalent in Japan during the 1980s, with companies offering attractive benefits to recruit graduates [6][7]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in job opportunities, resulting in a significant drop in the employment rate for graduates, marking the beginning of the degree devaluation era [9][10]. - By 1992, the university graduate employment rate began to fall, with figures dropping from 80% to 70.5% over the years, reflecting a shift in the job market dynamics [9][10]. Group 2: Impact of Economic Changes - The economic downturn resulted in a surge of graduates entering the job market, coinciding with a wave of corporate layoffs, creating a mismatch between job seekers and available positions [9][10]. - The rise of "freeter" culture, where young people took on part-time or temporary jobs instead of stable employment, became a common response to the bleak job market [12][14]. - The government attempted to address the crisis through various initiatives, including increasing the number of graduate programs, but these measures failed to improve employment rates significantly [18][19]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The term "lost generation" emerged to describe those who graduated during the economic downturn, as many faced prolonged unemployment or underemployment [14][26]. - The shift towards non-regular employment, such as temporary and contract work, became prevalent, with non-regular employment rates rising significantly over the years [25][22]. - The article highlights that despite recent improvements in employment rates for graduates, the underlying issues of degree devaluation and economic stagnation remain critical challenges for Japan [27][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China and draws parallels with Japan's historical experience during the 1990s economic crisis, highlighting the challenges faced by graduates in securing employment and the implications for the labor market [4][11]. Group 1: Current Situation of Graduates - The number of university graduates in China is expected to reach a record 12.22 million this year, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is projected to continue until 2038, when the number is expected to peak at 14.45 million [4]. Group 2: Historical Context from Japan - In the 1980s, Japan experienced a booming economy where university graduates were highly sought after, with many receiving multiple job offers before graduation [6][7]. - The economic bubble burst in the early 1990s led to a drastic decline in employment opportunities, with the employment rate for graduates dropping from 80% in 1992 to below 70% by 1995 [8][9]. - The term "lost generation" was coined to describe those who graduated during this period, facing severe employment challenges and often resorting to temporary or low-paying jobs [11][21]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Failures - The Japanese government implemented several initiatives to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for postdoctoral researchers, but these measures failed to improve the job market significantly [15][16]. - The increase in the number of graduate students did not correspond with a rise in employment rates, leading to a surplus of highly educated individuals without job opportunities [15][16]. - The introduction of labor dispatch laws in 1999 led to a rise in non-regular employment, which further complicated the job market for graduates [17][21]. Group 4: Lessons Learned and Future Implications - Japan's experience illustrates that simply increasing the number of graduates does not guarantee employment; economic innovation and industry upgrades are crucial for creating job opportunities [24][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for a shift from protecting existing industries to fostering new growth and innovation to prevent a repeat of the degree devaluation phenomenon [25].

如果只是在年轻时过自由的生活，长大后就放弃这种自由，这样并没有太大的意义。我想把50岁以上的朋友集结起来，随心所欲生活到最后。 你好你好，现在日本东京的樱花很漂亮，所以我来中国的前几天，每天去公园看樱花，跟朋友一起喝酒到早上，所以我现在有一点感冒。不好意思。 我是松本哉，我的中文不太好，所以今天用日文演讲，不好意思。可是今天找到了很好的翻译者，所以我放心随便讲。 我在东京一个叫高圆寺的街区经营着一家二手商店、一家青旅和一家小酒馆这三个店。这些店几乎都不赚钱，我就一边玩，一边随性地生活。 要说我为什么做这些莫名其妙的事呢，难得来一趟，今天就跟大家聊聊吧。 守护法政大学贫穷风气协会 最初的契机是我1994年上大学的时候。我上的是东京的法政大学，这是一所特别疯狂的大学，有很多奇怪的人。 所以，在大学里第一次接触到这种"反主流文化"之类的氛围，我特别惊讶：哇，原来世界是这个样子的啊～！乍一看学校的校舍又脏又乱，但是却有着极 大的自由。 但有一天，学校推出了校园再开发计划。 校方的计划是把校园里的所有建筑全部重建成漂亮的新建筑，"美化校园"的同时，作为交换，制定了很多规则，这也不让做、那也不让做，晚上也不让 进，自由的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan, drawing parallels with the current situation in China, particularly in the context of the increasing number of university graduates and the challenges they face in the job market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2024 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is expected to continue until it peaks at 14.45 million in 2038, indicating a persistent job market challenge for graduates [5]. Group 2: Historical Context of Degree Devaluation - The article references Japan's experience with degree devaluation, which began in the 1990s after the economic bubble burst, leading to a significant decline in employment rates for graduates [11][14]. - In 1992, the employment rate for university graduates began to drop, with figures falling from 80% to below 70% over the following years [14][21]. - The phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan was characterized by a surplus of graduates and a shrinking demand for high-skilled labor, resulting in a generation of "high-education refugees" [33][40]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Measures - The Japanese government implemented several measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for postdoctoral researchers, aiming to increase higher education enrollment [30][31]. - Despite these efforts, the number of graduate students increased significantly, but the employment rate continued to decline, highlighting a mismatch between education and job market needs [32]. - The revision of the Labor Dispatch Law in 1999 led to a rise in non-standard employment, which provided short-term solutions but ultimately worsened job security for graduates [36][40]. Group 4: Lessons Learned and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that the root cause of degree devaluation lies in the shrinking demand for skilled labor due to a lack of innovation and industrial upgrades in Japan [48][49]. - The current job market in Japan has shown signs of recovery, with a 98.1% employment rate for new graduates in 2024, attributed to demographic changes and a balance in supply and demand [46][47]. - The experience of Japan serves as a cautionary tale for other countries, including China, regarding the importance of aligning educational outcomes with labor market needs to prevent degree devaluation [53].