Core Viewpoint - The increasing trend of civil service examinations among young people is a rational risk management decision based on current employment conditions, rather than a sign of lost dreams or conservatism [1][4][11]. Group 1: Examination Trends - The number of candidates for the national civil service examination surpassed that of graduate school entrance examinations for the first time in history in 2026, with a significant increase from 157.6 million in 2021 to 371.8 million in 2026, marking a growth rate of 235.9% [2][4]. - In contrast, the number of graduate school applicants has been declining rapidly, with a drop from a peak of 4.74 million in 2023 to 3.43 million in 2026, a decrease of over 1.3 million [2][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for civil service positions is intense, with an admission ratio of approximately 98:1 for the national examination compared to 3.2:1 for graduate school [4]. - The phenomenon of "civil service examination fever" reflects a broader societal anxiety that transcends age and class, indicating a shift from a growth-oriented mindset to one focused on job security and stability [4][19]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of failing the civil service examination can lead to significant career disadvantages, including lower starting salaries and limited advancement opportunities, as candidates return to the job market with gaps in their resumes [6][8]. - The current employment pressure is characterized as a systemic anxiety affecting various demographics, including young graduates and middle-aged workers, indicating a shift away from the belief that hard work guarantees better outcomes [19]. Group 4: Changing Definitions of "Good Jobs" - The definition of a "good job" has shifted from seeking high growth opportunities to prioritizing job security and stability, reflecting a broader change in societal values and economic conditions [9][11]. - The current job market emphasizes the importance of practical skills and experience over academic credentials, leading to a more competitive environment for graduates [23][24]. Group 5: Structural Employment Issues - There exists a structural mismatch in the job market, where the increase in job postings does not align with the expectations of recent graduates, leading to a perception of difficulty in finding suitable employment [13][14]. - The employment landscape is increasingly complex, with various groups, including young graduates, middle-aged workers, and small business owners, facing unique challenges that contribute to a pervasive sense of job insecurity [19][18].

Group 1 - The number of candidates for the National Examination (国考) surpassed that of the Graduate Entrance Examination (考研) for the first time in history in 2026, with 371.8 million candidates for the National Examination compared to 343 million for the Graduate Entrance Examination, marking a significant shift in trends [1] - The National Examination has seen a rapid increase in candidates from 157.6 million in 2021 to 371.8 million in 2026, representing a growth rate of 235.9% [1] - The competition for the National Examination is intense, with a reported admission ratio of approximately 98:1, compared to a ratio of 3.2:1 for graduate studies [1] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "考公热" (the craze for civil service exams) is not indicative of young people losing their dreams but rather reflects a rational decision-making process in response to current employment pressures [2][3] - The long-term impact of the "考公热" may reshape career trajectories and influence the economic structure, as individuals face opportunity costs and potential career stagnation due to failed attempts at civil service exams [3][4] - The current employment pressure is characterized as a systemic anxiety affecting various demographics, leading to a chain reaction that exacerbates job scarcity and economic challenges [14] Group 3 - The definition of a "good job" has shifted from seeking growth opportunities to prioritizing job security, reflecting a broader change in societal values and economic conditions [6] - The increase in job postings does not correlate with the expectations of recent graduates, as many positions are concentrated in lower-tier roles, leading to a mismatch between job availability and graduate aspirations [7][9] - The current employment landscape is marked by a structural contradiction where the growth in job postings does not meet the expectations of graduates, resulting in a perception of difficulty in finding suitable employment [9][10] Group 4 - The decline in graduate school applications from 2024 to 2026 is attributed to an oversupply of master's graduates and a shift in employer expectations towards practical skills over academic credentials [16][17] - The competition for graduate programs remains intense at top-tier universities, while some less prestigious institutions face declining enrollment in certain fields [18] - The changing landscape of employment has led to a more pragmatic approach among students and parents regarding the value of graduate education, emphasizing the importance of skills and experience over mere academic qualifications [17][18]

Graduate Examination Trends - The number of applicants for the 2026 national master's degree entrance examination is reported to be 3.43 million, marking a decline for three consecutive years, totaling a decrease of 1.31 million applicants over three years [1] - The number of applicants has decreased from 4.74 million in 2023 to 4.38 million in 2024, a reduction of 360,000, and further down to 3.88 million in 2025, a decrease of 500,000 [1] - The trend of declining applicants is attributed to the diminishing return on investment for pursuing a master's degree, as the value of a graduate degree has decreased with the increase in the number of graduates [3] Employment and Education Dynamics - A significant factor for the decline in graduate school applications is the perception that the cost-benefit ratio of obtaining a master's degree has worsened, with many graduates prioritizing work experience over further education [3] - Data from the 2024 China Undergraduate Employment Report indicates that 48% and 45% of graduates pursue further studies for better job prospects and career development needs, respectively [3] - The job market for master's degree holders is not significantly better than that for bachelor's degree holders, leading to a shift in focus towards developing core employment skills rather than obtaining higher degrees [3] Public Sector Examination Interest - Interest in public sector examinations remains high, with 3.718 million candidates passing the qualification review for the 2026 national civil service examination, reflecting a competitive ratio of approximately 98:1 [3] Vocational Education Trends - There is a growing trend towards vocational undergraduate institutions, as students who could attend regular universities are opting for vocational programs, valuing the job security and certainty that skills training provides [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China, drawing parallels with Japan's historical experience during the 1990s economic downturn [2][3]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2023 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [1]. - The offer acquisition rate for 2024 master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% rate for undergraduate graduates [1]. - The job market is increasingly competitive, with the employment rate for undergraduate graduates being lower than that of vocational school graduates [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons from Japan - Japan experienced a similar "degree devaluation" phenomenon in the 1990s, where a significant economic downturn led to a drastic drop in employment rates for university graduates [10][12]. - The 1990s marked a turning point for Japan, where the employment rate for graduates fell from 80% to below 70%, leading to a generation labeled as "lost" due to their struggles in the job market [10][30]. - The Japanese government attempted various measures to alleviate the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students, but these efforts did not address the underlying issues of economic stagnation and job market demand [21][35]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The article highlights that the root cause of degree devaluation is not merely the oversupply of graduates but the lack of corresponding job opportunities due to economic stagnation and a failure to innovate [35][37]. - Japan's experience illustrates that without significant economic growth and innovation, an increase in educational attainment can lead to a surplus of graduates without adequate job prospects [35][37]. - The article concludes that creating new job opportunities through industrial upgrades and innovation is essential to prevent degree devaluation and ensure that higher education translates into economic productivity [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China and draws parallels with Japan's historical experience during its economic downturn in the 1990s [4][20]. Group 1: Current Situation of Graduates - In 2024, the number of university graduates in China is expected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is projected to continue until 2038, when it will peak at 14.45 million [4]. Group 2: Historical Context from Japan - In the 1980s, Japan experienced a booming economy where university graduates were highly sought after, with many receiving multiple job offers before graduation [5][6]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in job opportunities, with the employment rate for graduates dropping significantly [8][9]. - The term "lost generation" emerged in Japan, referring to those who graduated during the economic downturn and faced severe employment challenges [12]. Group 3: Government Responses and Consequences - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students and promoting vocational training [13][15]. - Despite these efforts, the oversupply of graduates and the lack of corresponding job opportunities led to a rise in "high-education refugees" and "浪人博士" (wandering PhDs) [15][19]. - The shift towards non-regular employment, such as temporary and contract work, became prevalent, further complicating the job market for graduates [16][19]. Group 4: Lessons Learned - Japan's experience highlights the importance of aligning higher education with market needs and the dangers of overemphasizing degree attainment without corresponding job creation [21]. - The article suggests that economic growth and innovation are crucial for creating job opportunities that can absorb the increasing number of graduates [21].

以下文章来源于凤凰WEEKLY ，作者卢伊 凤凰WEEKLY . 有温度、有情感、有趣味的新媒体。 一个时代。 记者丨卢伊 编辑丨段文 新媒体编辑｜闫如意 来源 | 凤凰WEEKLY （ID：phoenixweekly） 80后的中年危机，来得格外的迅猛。 青山资本在年度消费报告《35岁，中国式中年》中指出，尽管全球范围内的中年危机往往在四五十岁才逐渐显现。 但在中国，随着产业结构、劳动者教育水平的高速变化，35岁以上的劳动力正在被市场出清。 无数政策优惠、就业求职、婚育观念等，也将35岁作为一道门槛，过之即弃。 "好像35岁有一道无形的门，走进去了便'隐入尘烟'。" 在这份报告推出的2024年，35岁有了更为具体的指代——他们出生于1989年，是80后中的最后一批。 尽管他们距离通常意义上的"中年"仍有一定距离，但当35岁成为迈入中年的新标准，这意味着： 整个80后群体已集体步入中年，提前直面来自职场、家庭和社会的中年危机。 80后，这是一个拥有2.2亿人口的庞大群体，他们是中国第一代独生子女，也是教育改革的试验品、东西方思想碰撞的产物。 中国社会科学院研究员沈杰曾指出，这代人出生在改革开放开启的80年代， ...