Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that after the head - and - shoulders bottom breakdown, there was a significant decline. Wait for the short - term stabilization and subsequent repair market. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rebounded and then declined this week, and the short - term still awaits stabilization. TL2603's trend weakened significantly after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom. From the perspective of the wave theory, the decline starting from November 5th is considered a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [2]. - In the treasury bond futures data tracking, the main contracts are changing. The 2603 contracts' cash - and - carry arbitrage still needs to wait. Treasury bond futures declined overall this week, with the trading activity rising. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts increased overall, with a decline in TL. The IRR decreased for all except TL. Currently, the overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis - **1.1 Previous Trend Review**: TL's repair was poor after the breakdown, and there was a significant decline in the middle of the week. T and TL declined significantly in the middle of the week. TL2603 rebounded on Monday after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom last week but was under pressure at the lower edge of the trading area in mid - early November. After the rebound, it declined again. On Wednesday, there was a significant increase in positions and a decline. It rebounded slightly on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 touched the 5 - day moving average on Friday and then declined, and the current form remains weak [7]. - **1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook**: After the significant decline in the middle of the week, the trends of T and TL are weak, and the decline has暂缓. The focus is on the opportunity to participate in the upward repair of the market. T2603 broke below the 60 - day line on Wednesday and stood back on it and was supported on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 declined significantly after rebounding to the lower edge of the upper box on Monday. The decline of T2603 and TL2603 since November 5th has shown three waves. It is inclined to be a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. Even if it is a new downward wave since November 5th, a 4th - wave rebound can still be expected. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [12]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Tracking - Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on November 28th, the closing prices of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.378, 105.745, 107.940, and 114.49 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, - 0.160, - 0.300, and - 0.88 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors [3][15]. - As of November 28th, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased overall, with a decline in TL. The CTD net bases of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were - 0.01, - 0.03, - 0.01, and - 0.14 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRRs corresponding to the CTDs of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.51%, 1.57%, 1.49%, and 1.84% respectively. Except for TL, all declined. The overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [19]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts increased overall this week [20].

各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 昨天刚说到，若按照水平颈线/肩部来算的话，下方的分水岭应该定于3292—96这样。隔夜就这么水灵灵地实现了？只可惜，是支撑的顶沿而非底沿，否则 这轮的清洗应该是更加到位。 对，针对日线这根长长下影线的小阳十字星（叫大头针也行）的构成，我愿称之为扫盘无极限~这种提前走出来，不论原因，都导致后半夜黄金的抬升，初 步阻力25毫无抵抗之力。 果然还是押注3300破位的头寸太多太密集了吧，借助一个小的基本面消息，五个小时的横盘归零，还是反抽。不可否认，这是一轮很不错的洗盘。 周一老川开始工作之后签署行政令，将"对等"关税生效日期从7月9日延至8月1日，并开始告知贸易伙伴，将从8月1日起大幅提高关税，又是一个新阶段，又 是一轮新的TACO交易呢。 无所谓，反正信函已经向14国飞去，现在用自家小弟们练练手，直接给日韩征收了25%的关税。果然呐，屈服只会给它蹬鼻子上脸的机会。而之后说的这些 信函，整个市场都看见了，是开始炒作对其他经济体也进行加征对吧，恐慌情绪推动黄金上涨。 （直白说是因为情绪堆积，所以被收割了） 可是延长所谓对等关税暂缓期，真的不是有些体量现在的老美掌控不住，往后推一推，再想 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Head and Shoulders Bottom" pattern in technical analysis, emphasizing its significance as a bullish reversal signal typically appearing at the end of a bear market. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics - The "Head and Shoulders Bottom" pattern consists of three parts: left shoulder, head, right shoulder, and a neckline, resembling two shoulders supporting a head [1] - The neckline is formed by connecting the first and second rebound high points, and it can be either horizontal or sloped [3] Group 2: Breakout Patterns - There are two types of breakout patterns: one involves a pullback after breaking the neckline, while the other sees the price rise continuously without retracing [4] Group 3: Buying Strategies - For aggressive buyers, the first buying point is when the price breaks above the neckline with increased volume, although this carries some risk of a false breakout [5] - For conservative buyers, the second buying point occurs when the price breaks the neckline, pulls back, and then rises again near the neckline [5] Group 4: Cautionary Notes - A significant increase in volume is necessary when breaking the neckline; otherwise, it may indicate a false breakout [7] - After an upward breakout, a temporary pullback is acceptable, but it should not fall below the neckline to avoid a failed pattern [9] Group 5: Case Studies - A successful case is illustrated with the Shanghai Composite Index from May to October 2010, where it formed a "Head and Shoulders Bottom" and subsequently rose significantly [10] - A failed case is presented with Northeast Pharmaceutical (000597) from May to September 2010, where the price fell below the neckline after a breakout, leading to a loss of market confidence [11]