Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in an era of uncertainty, the true long-term winners are not those companies that appear risk-free, but rather those that demonstrate resilience and continuously adapt to challenges [3][4]. Group 1: Understanding Uncertainty - The distinction between risk and uncertainty is highlighted, with risk being quantifiable and insurable, while uncertainty is unpredictable and creates opportunities for entrepreneurs [7][8]. - Current uncertainties include pandemics, natural disasters, financial pressures, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions, which complicate the global economic landscape [10]. Group 2: Resilient Companies - Resilience is defined as the ability of companies to withstand shocks, with financial characteristics such as manageable debt, sufficient gross margins, and consistent cash flow being crucial [18][19]. - Cultural aspects, such as leadership by founders who can make unconventional decisions and drive organizational change, are also important for resilience [18]. Group 3: Examples of Resilient Companies - Shopify is cited as an example of a company that has transitioned to a model that retains about 20% of revenue after covering operational costs, allowing it to remain flexible [20]. - Meta has improved its operational efficiency, positioning itself favorably for better business conditions [20]. - Cloudflare has shown increasing profitability, enabling it to withstand external shocks [21]. Group 4: Creating Opportunities - Resilient companies have the ability to "create their own climate," allowing them to thrive even in challenging environments [23]. - Companies like Ferrari and Oddity demonstrate how innovation and brand strength can drive growth despite industry challenges [24]. Group 5: Focus on Predictable Elements - The article stresses the importance of focusing on predictable trends, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, electric vehicle batteries, and cloud computing, to identify resilient companies [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in an era of uncertainty, only resilient companies that can survive challenges will ultimately succeed [10][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Scottish Mortgage Trust (SMT) manages approximately £15.1 billion (about $19.3 billion) in assets, with around 25% allocated to private companies [5]. - SMT's portfolio includes leading global companies such as MercadoLibre, Amazon, Meta, Pinduoduo, and TSMC, as well as innovative private firms like SpaceX and ByteDance [6]. - Despite facing challenges like rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, SMT has maintained an annualized return of about 12% over the past decade [6]. Group 2: Resilience in Companies - Tom Slater highlights that true long-term winners are not those that appear risk-free but those that demonstrate resilience and adaptability during crises [7]. - Companies like Netflix, which have shown the ability to adapt and innovate, exemplify the characteristics of resilient firms [8]. - Resilience is defined as having the ability to "create climate," allowing companies to thrive even in challenging environments [28]. Group 3: Financial Characteristics of Resilient Companies - Key financial traits of resilient companies include manageable debt levels, sufficient gross margins to absorb sales fluctuations, and consistent cash flow generation [24]. - The article discusses Shopify as an example of a company that has transitioned to a model where it retains about 20% of revenue after covering operational costs, enhancing its flexibility [26]. - Meta and Cloudflare are also cited as examples of companies that have improved their operational efficiency and profitability, positioning them favorably in the market [27]. Group 4: Future Trends and Predictions - The article stresses the importance of focusing on predictable trends, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, cheaper electric vehicle batteries, and stronger cloud computing capabilities [34]. - Companies that align with these long-term themes and demonstrate resilience are more likely to survive and prosper in an uncertain future [34].