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巨头业绩指引远超市场预期,行业供给紧缺短期难解
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-12 23:30
Group 1 - Kioxia's annual performance forecast significantly exceeds market expectations, with revenue and net profit targets higher than analyst predictions by approximately 35% to 60% [1] - Demand for storage driven by AI computing power is becoming dominant, leading to a sustained shortage in storage [1] - In the DRAM sector, major cloud service providers (CSPs) in North America and China are actively negotiating long-term agreements for server DRAM supply, resulting in a projected price increase of about 90% in Q1, marking the highest increase on record [1] Group 2 - The market demand for high-performance storage devices is expected to exceed forecasts due to the expansion of AI inference applications, with major CSPs in North America starting to ramp up orders for Enterprise SSDs from the end of 2025 [2] - The supply gap is prompting buyers to aggressively stock up, leading to a projected price increase of 53-58% for Enterprise SSDs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly increase on record [1][2] - Financial Street Securities anticipates that the trend of tight storage capacity will continue into 2026, with domestic manufacturers like "Two Storage" having sufficient motivation to expand production, benefiting the domestic storage industry chain [2] Group 3 - Zhaoyi Innovation, a global leader in NOR Flash, is expanding into niche DRAM and MCU markets, accelerating its growth in automotive electronics and AI terminal markets [3] - Daway Co., Ltd. has a subsidiary, Daway Chuangxin, whose main products include various DRAM products (DDR3, DDR4, LPDDR4X, DDR5) and NAND Flash products (eMMC, BGA NAND Flash) [3]
AI算力需求拉动,存储紧缺持续
摩尔投研精选· 2026-02-04 10:27
Group 1 - The spring market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with a need for adjustment after the initial momentum of the year. The average holding period for A-shares has reached a historical low, indicating excessive trading behavior [1] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has led to market pricing in expectations of "QT + rate cuts" and a strong dollar, suggesting a prolonged period of a volatile market before a new upward trend can be established [1] - The AI industry continues to show growth potential, with a transition towards application-level advancements expected in the long term. The recovery of cyclical alpha has not yet reached extreme values, indicating further room for growth [1] Group 2 - TrendForce has significantly revised its forecasts for the first quarter prices of DRAM and NAND Flash products, with conventional DRAM contract prices expected to increase by 90-95% and NAND Flash prices by 55-60% [2] - Despite concerns over consumer electronics demand potentially impacting storage needs, the demand driven by AI computing is becoming dominant, sustaining storage shortages [2] - In the server DRAM segment, major cloud service providers are actively negotiating annual supply agreements, leading to a projected price increase of approximately 90% for the first quarter, marking the highest annual increase on record [3] Group 3 - The demand for high-performance storage devices is expected to exceed expectations due to the expansion of AI application scenarios, with significant order increases for enterprise SSDs anticipated [3] - As traditional storage supply-demand gaps persist, domestic storage manufacturers are under pressure to expand production. Yangtze Memory Technologies has officially registered its third phase, aiming for a 15% share of global NAND flash supply by the end of 2026 [3]