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2026年 黄金白银价格还涨吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-03 11:21
Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.12 million ounces as of November 2025, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, with expectations of two more cuts in 2026, which may support gold prices [1] - Experts predict that gold prices may stabilize at around $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with potential to rise to $6,000 if geopolitical tensions worsen or if the Fed accelerates rate cuts [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The global silver market is expected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of supply shortages [2] - Silver prices have shown high volatility, recently reaching a record high of $83 per ounce before retreating below $80, reflecting a more elastic price response compared to gold [2] - The demand for silver is bolstered by its industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where annual consumption exceeds 200 million ounces [2] Group 3: Deposit Rate Trends - Deposit rates for fixed-term savings have entered a "1" digit era, with significant declines in high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit [3] - The trend of declining deposit rates is expected to continue due to a loose monetary policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reducing financing costs [3] - The likelihood of deposit rates increasing in 2026 is low, with expectations of stability or slight declines instead [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are expected to see demand growth driven by sectors like renewable energy and automotive lightweighting [4] - The storage chip industry is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity in 2026, with a potential "super cycle" driven by AI advancements [4] - Investors are advised to consider ETFs related to chips or semiconductors for diversified exposure to the industry [4] Group 5: Risk Management in Investment - Experts emphasize the importance of risk management in asset allocation for 2026, given the increased geopolitical risks and market volatility [5] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term, stable asset allocation rather than high-leverage, high-volatility opportunities [5] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing high-dividend assets for stable cash flow with investments in technology growth funds during market corrections [6]