如何看当下的电解铝？20251107 摘要 电解铝板块年化市盈率约为 8-9 倍，股息率达 5%以上，并有提升空间。 铝价年度级别仍有上涨空间，将带动利润弹性增加，具备较好的年度配 置选择。 海外边际减产是近期行情加速因素之一，冰岛、莫桑比亚电站问题及力 拓绿电问题预计将影响全球 1-1.5 个百分点的供给减少，对市场产生重 大扰动。 金属内部轮动修复逻辑显现，在金银铜等品种创新高后，铝价有望从衰 退预期转向通胀复苏或软着陆预期，实现价格修复，目前铝价仍低于 2020 年水平，存在边际修复空间。 机构合理配置是另一推动因素，三季度公募重仓电解铝板块环比下滑， 在流动性宽松背景下，具有基本面和红利属性的电解铝板块成为较好的 年度配置选择。 中长期看，目前处于买入黄金最佳时期，即加息中后期交易流动性宽松 阶段，股票估值和商品同步上涨，今年应是铜、铝拔估值元年，明后年 全球工业企稳与修复，带动需求复苏。 Q&A 近期电解铝板块的投资机会如何？ 从 10 月份以来，我们一直强烈推荐电解铝板块的配置。年度级别来看，电解 铝在基础板块中的性价比非常高。当前板块的市净率（PB）约为 2 倍多，平均 净资产收益率（ROE）超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points is primarily driven by the restoration of confidence in the capital market, supported by favorable policies and events that have encouraged increased investment from residents [1][2]. Market Performance - As of November 3, the Shanghai Composite Index has seen an annual increase of nearly 19%, marking six consecutive months of gains. The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, has emerged as the biggest winner with a 73.77% increase [2]. - The sub-sector index, the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, has outperformed the broader index with a year-to-date increase of 74.57%. The corresponding ETF, the Wan Jia CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme ETF, has surged by 78.08%, with its scale exceeding 5.5 billion, a nearly 15-fold increase from the previous year [2][3]. ETF Development - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF, launched in February 2023, focuses solely on industrial metals, avoiding the distractions of energy and precious metals. This focus aligns with macroeconomic trends and manufacturing demand, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors [3][4]. - The ETF's revised index has achieved an impressive year-to-date increase of 81.73% and a rolling P/E ratio of 20.02, lower than the broader non-ferrous metals index [4]. Market Trends - The ETF has shown resilience during market fluctuations, with a smaller adjustment compared to other indices during high volatility periods. It has attracted significant capital inflow, indicating strong recognition from both retail and institutional investors [5]. - The long-term outlook for the industrial non-ferrous metals sector is positive, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in domestic demand for metals in construction and infrastructure [5]. Market Differentiation - The ETF market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a notable contrast between the stagnation of broad-based ETFs and the growth of niche ETFs like the Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF. This indicates a mismatch in supply and demand, as many institutions focus on broad strategies while neglecting specific investor needs [6][7]. - Wan Jia Fund has identified three market gaps: the lack of precise coverage for small-cap stocks, the absence of stable cash flow products, and the opportunity in Hong Kong stocks. The company has successfully launched products addressing these gaps, such as the first National 2000 ETF and a monthly dividend ETF [7][8]. Product Innovation - Wan Jia Fund's approach emphasizes "boutique" strategies, focusing on value rather than competing in crowded markets. This strategy has led to the development of a diverse ETF matrix covering various investment styles and themes [9]. - The success of these products is attributed to a systematic support structure, including a skilled team, effective technology, and a culture of diligence and responsibility [10][11]. Conclusion - The emergence of boutique ETFs reflects a shift from supply-driven to demand-driven strategies, highlighting the importance of precise matching of investment tools to investor needs. This trend suggests that in a competitive market, focusing on niche opportunities can yield better results than broad approaches [12].