■2026·金融瞭望 解码开年投资图谱： □据国信证券基于六大行2025年半年报测算，全行业两年及以上定存到期规模约在59万亿元至71万亿 元，且大部分于2025年末至2026年初集中到期 ◎记者 黄坤 2026年开年，一场关于"钱往哪里去"的讨论正在火热上演。一边是数十万亿元定期存款集中到期，一边 是利率中枢持续下探，居民财富配置站在一个熟悉又微妙变化的路口：继续"守"，还是开始"挪"？ 在安全性、收益性、流动性之间反复权衡后，一张徐徐铺展的开年投资图谱，正逐渐清晰。 不是逃离，而是重新安放 "2022年末理财赎回潮兴起的时候，不少客户把钱存成了三年定期，现在陆续都到期提取了。"一家农商 行的副行长向上海证券报记者描述了近期网点里的真实场景。与3年前3%以上的存款利率相比，如今不 同期限之间的利差明显收窄，许多客户选择将到期资金先置换为短期存款，秉持"不急着动，先看一 看"的观望态度。 这一变化并非个例。2026年被业内视为近年少见的"存款到期大年"。据华泰证券测算，2026年一年期以 上定存到期规模约50万亿元。国信证券基于六大行2025年半年报测算，全行业两年及以上定存到期规模 约在59万亿元至71万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of "high-interest fixed deposit maturities" is expected in 2026, with approximately 50 trillion yuan of funds set to be released, reshaping the asset allocation landscape for residents [1][6][7]. Group 1: Background and Causes - The upcoming maturity wave is a result of two overlapping funding cycles: high-interest fixed deposits from 2020-2021 and passive savings due to market pressures in 2022-2023 [1][5]. - In 2020-2021, banks initiated a high-interest deposit campaign, with five-year fixed deposit rates reaching as high as 5%, leading to a significant accumulation of funds maturing in 2026 [4][6]. - The passive savings trend emerged in 2022-2023 due to market volatility, prompting many investors to redeem their investments and seek safety in fixed deposits [5][7]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Current fixed deposit rates have significantly decreased, with major banks offering rates around 1.2% for three-year deposits, down from previous highs [8][9]. - Despite the decline in interest rates, many conservative investors are likely to continue renewing their fixed deposits due to a low tolerance for risk and a preference for capital preservation [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - The market is witnessing a competition among various financial products, including fixed deposits, wealth management products, insurance, and funds, to attract the migrating capital [1][11]. - "Stable" wealth management products have gained popularity as they offer better returns than current fixed deposit rates, with some achieving annual yields above 3% [11][12]. - Insurance products are also becoming a favored option, with long-term stable returns appealing to investors seeking safety and growth [14][16]. Group 4: Fund Management and Future Outlook - Fund management companies are expected to enhance their asset management capabilities to effectively attract and manage the incoming funds from maturing deposits [20]. - The shift in investor sentiment towards diversified financial products indicates a potential for sustained growth in the insurance and fund sectors, particularly for products that offer a balance of safety and returns [17][18].