11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1年期 LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。这是两个期限品种的LPR报价自5月20日双双下调10个基点后，连 续6个月保持不变，市场普遍认为符合预期。 "6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展 等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下降，货币政策保持较强定力。"东方金诚首席 宏观分析师王青分析，10月20日LPR报价公布以来，央行7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，这意味着11月 LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不变。 业内人士认为，尽管近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主要中长端市场利率稳 中有降，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有下行，但在商业银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下，当 前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。国家金融监督管理总局近期公布的数据显示，今年三季 度商业银行净息差为1.42%，与二季度持平，仍处于历史低位。 自2019年8月中国人民银行改革完善LPR报价形成机制后，如今LP ...

证券研究报告 固收 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 利率周报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 欧阳琳* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com "五组利率比价关系"的启示 朱逸敏* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 央行政策利率和市场利率的关系 央行政策利率与市场利率的关系主要关注两个维度：1）OMO→资金利率→ 同业存单/短端国债利率： 5 月以来，DR001 资金利率回到政策利率附近波 动。向后看，央行几大目标更为均衡，资金面大概率延续平稳，货币市场利 率与 OMO 利差预计稳定且延续低位。2）OMO→ ...

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy report maintains a "moderately accommodative" stance, addressing current economic challenges while balancing short-term growth and long-term quality development[1] - The report emphasizes "keeping social financing conditions relatively loose" and "strengthening monetary policy execution and transmission," indicating a shift from "incremental acceleration" to "stock quality improvement" in monetary policy focus[1] Financial Indicators - As of September, the total social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 8.4%, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan, aligning with economic growth and price targets[2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued loans fell to 3.24% in Q3, with corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by 37 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively, easing the financing burden on market entities[2] Economic Context - GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, with overall employment stability, although challenges remain in manufacturing and export growth[2] - Core inflation is stabilizing, with expectations for gradual price recovery as consumption policies take effect[2] Policy Insights - The report includes four sections, with the first highlighting that the RMB loan balance is 270 trillion yuan and social financing stock is 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development[2] - The second section clarifies the relationship between base money and broader money supply, suggesting a shift from "quantity expansion" to "interest rate transmission" in monetary policy[4] Interest Rate Dynamics - The fourth section discusses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation, addressing recent imbalances caused by market behaviors[4] - The central bank is implementing measures to correct interest rate imbalances, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the real economy[4]

Group 1: Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened mixed, with energy products leading the gains, as crude oil rose by 2.11% [1] - Most base metals increased, with Shanghai tin up by 1.42%, while precious metals also saw gains, with Shanghai silver rising by 0.96% [1] - Agricultural products mostly declined, with live pigs down by 0.93%, and chemical products also saw a downward trend, with ethylene glycol falling by 0.89% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day, supported by stronger Chicago soybean oil, but faced pressure from weather concerns and weak November export data [2] - The benchmark January palm oil contract closed up by 27 Malaysian Ringgit, or 0.66%, at 4,139 Malaysian Ringgit per ton [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - Current demand for rubber is at its best level post-pandemic, with strong performance in heavy truck data and high operating rates in downstream tire factories [3] - There is a willingness among downstream tire manufacturers to accept orders, but supply remains the core factor, with future production increases dependent on weather conditions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with continued inventory reduction during the peak season [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains recognized, and there is still upward momentum, although spot prices are lagging, indicating potential profit-taking risks [4] Group 5: Market Events and Trends - The People's Bank of China released its monetary policy report for Q3 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions [5] - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may impact palm oil exports and tighten global supply, potentially leading to a spike in palm oil prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a balanced monetary policy that supports economic growth while managing risks, with a focus on both short-term and long-term objectives [1][2][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC's report outlines a strategy to balance short-term and long-term goals, stabilize growth while preventing risks, and ensure the health of the banking system [1][4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination to achieve a synergistic effect in supporting growth and structural adjustments [5]. Economic Indicators - As of September 2025, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [3]. Loan Rate and Risk Pricing - The PBOC stresses that corporate financing rates should not fall below government bond yields, as this contradicts risk pricing principles and is unsustainable [7][10]. - The report indicates that the PBOC has been urging banks not to issue loans with post-tax rates lower than the yields of government bonds of the same maturity [9][10]. Financial Market Dynamics - The report discusses the need to address the misalignment of interest rates in the financial market, which has been influenced by factors such as liquidity conditions and competitive pressures among banks [8]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy by ensuring a reasonable relationship between various interest rates, thereby improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need to balance short-term and long-term goals, support economic growth while managing risks, and ensure internal and external equilibrium [2]. - The central bank aims to achieve a 5% economic growth target for the year through coordinated macro policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies [2]. - The report stresses the importance of monitoring liquidity supply and demand in the banking system and financial markets, while ensuring ample liquidity through various monetary policy tools [2]. Financial Indicators - The report suggests a shift in focus from traditional loan metrics to social financing scale due to changes in financing structure and economic transformation [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Management - The report calls for deepening interest rate marketization reforms and improving the transmission channels of monetary policy [4]. - It emphasizes the need for a sound market-based interest rate formation mechanism and the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance monetary policy effectiveness [4][5]. Financial Tools and Support - The report outlines the development of five key financial areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to support national strategies and address weak links in economic development [6]. - As of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting these areas was 3.9 trillion yuan, with loan growth rates in these sectors exceeding 10% [7]. Risk Management - The report emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and a mechanism for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [7][8]. - It highlights the need for enhanced supervision of systemically important financial institutions and the expansion of additional regulatory coverage to non-bank sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need to balance short-term and long-term goals, stabilize growth while preventing risks, and ensure internal and external equilibrium [2]. - It stresses the importance of macroeconomic governance effectiveness and aims for a 5% economic growth target for the year [2]. - The report calls for the use of various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity and to guide banks in maintaining credit support [2][4]. Financial Indicators - The report suggests a shift in focus from traditional loan metrics to social financing scale due to changes in financing structure and economic transformation [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Management - The report advocates for deepening interest rate marketization reforms and improving the transmission channels of monetary policy [4]. - It emphasizes the need for a sound interest rate relationship to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce arbitrage opportunities [4]. Regulatory Measures - The report outlines measures to regulate interest rate self-discipline mechanisms and ensure banks do not offer loans below certain yield thresholds [5]. - It aims to support banks in stabilizing net interest margins and expanding the space for counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments [5]. Financial Innovation - The report encourages the development of various financial sectors, including technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [6]. - As of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting these initiatives was 3.9 trillion yuan [6][7]. Risk Management - The report emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and mechanisms for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [7]. - It calls for enhanced monitoring, assessment, and early warning of systemic financial risks, as well as the expansion of the macro-prudential toolbox [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and facilitate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [1][2]. Interest Rate Relationships - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates is crucial, as market rates should ideally reflect the central bank's policy intentions. Any significant deviation can hinder the effectiveness of interest rate transmission [3]. - The relationship between asset and liability rates of commercial banks is also important. A mismatch in the adjustment speed of loan and deposit rates can compress banks' net interest margins, affecting their ability to support the real economy [3]. - Different asset yield relationships, such as those between loans and bonds, should not diverge excessively for the same entity, as this could disrupt the risk pricing principle [4]. Term and Risk Premiums - The relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates reflects term premiums, and banks should maintain reasonable term spreads in their deposit rates [4]. - The relationship between different risk rates indicates that higher credit ratings should correspond to lower financing costs. If corporate financing rates fall below government bond yields, it contradicts the risk pricing principle [4]. Market Dynamics - The central bank has been actively working to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships, which can explain recent trends such as the slowdown in household deposit growth and the increase in non-bank deposits [5]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is essentially a reallocation of assets by residents based on changing return rates, reflecting a dynamic adjustment in asset allocation [5][6]. Future Directions - The central bank plans to continue transforming its monetary policy framework, focusing on price-based regulation and enhancing the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments in resource allocation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a stable yet progressive monetary policy, aiming to balance economic growth with risk prevention while enhancing the financial system's robustness and openness [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank will maintain a reasonable growth of financial aggregates and implement a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure social financing conditions remain relatively relaxed [2] - The focus will be on using various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Group 2: Financial Support and Development - The central bank aims to enhance the guiding role of monetary and credit policies by promoting technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance, supporting key national strategies and sectors [3] - There will be a focus on improving financial support mechanisms for small and micro enterprises, enhancing credit systems, and promoting consumption through financial measures [3] Group 3: Interest and Exchange Rate Management - The central bank will deepen interest rate marketization reforms and improve the transmission channels of monetary policy, ensuring that market-driven interest rates reflect true lending costs [4] - A managed floating exchange rate system will be maintained, with measures to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market [4] Group 4: Financial Market Development and Openness - The development of a multi-tiered bond market will be accelerated, with a focus on supporting private technology enterprises and enhancing the legal framework for bond issuance [5] - The central bank will promote the internationalization of the RMB and expand its use in cross-border trade and investment [5] Group 5: Risk Prevention and Management - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be established to monitor and mitigate systemic financial risks, with an emphasis on enhancing the oversight of systemically important financial institutions [6] - The central bank will explore innovative financial tools and strengthen cross-border regulatory cooperation to maintain market stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2023, aiming to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic recovery and stability in financial markets [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has maintained reasonable growth in monetary credit by utilizing various tools such as open market operations and medium-term lending facilities to ensure ample liquidity [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of lowering the overall financing costs in society by enhancing the market-oriented interest rate adjustment framework, which has led to a decline in both deposit and loan interest rates [1][2]. Credit Structure Optimization - The PBOC is focusing on optimizing the credit structure by utilizing 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, as well as increasing support for technological innovation and transformation [1][3]. - The report highlights the need to support key domestic demand areas such as consumption and technological innovation through targeted monetary policy tools [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC aims to deepen interest rate marketization reforms and improve the transmission channels of monetary policy, ensuring that the central bank's policy rates effectively guide market rates [4]. - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate, with the market playing a decisive role in its formation, while also monitoring cross-border capital flows to prevent excessive fluctuations [5]. Financial Risk Prevention - The PBOC is committed to systematically preventing and resolving financial risks by enhancing monitoring, assessment, and early warning systems for systemic financial risks [6]. - The report outlines the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial market stability through innovative financial tools [6].