Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" with a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [2][35]. Core Insights - As of June 2025, the total deposit scale in China reached 280.7 trillion, with household deposits at 162 trillion and corporate deposits at 118.7 trillion. The growth rates from 2018 to mid-2025 show household time deposits increased by 165.4%, significantly outpacing corporate deposits [5][9][24]. - The estimated maturity of time deposits in 2025 is approximately 105 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 14 trillion. This includes about 45 trillion maturing in the first quarter, indicating a substantial liquidity source for the capital market [15][30]. - The re-pricing of time deposits maturing from 2022 to 2024 is projected to reduce the annualized cost of liabilities for banks by approximately 1.5 trillion, contributing positively to the banks' interest margins [24][30]. - The liquidity impact of maturing time deposits is expected to create significant market expectations, with potential inflows into the capital market if market sentiment aligns [30][31]. Summary by Sections Current Deposit Scale and Structure - As of June 2025, total deposits in China are 280.7 trillion, with household deposits at 162 trillion and corporate deposits at 118.7 trillion. The growth rates from 2018 to mid-2025 indicate a significant increase in household time deposits [5][9][24]. Maturity Scale and Rhythm of Time Deposits - The estimated total maturity of time deposits in 2025 is around 105 trillion, with a notable increase in the first quarter. The data suggests a growing trend in the maturity of time deposits, which is crucial for liquidity in the capital market [15][30]. Impact on Interest Margins from Maturing Time Deposits - The re-pricing of time deposits maturing from 2022 to 2024 is expected to lower banks' annualized liability costs by about 1.5 trillion, positively affecting interest margins. This is anticipated to alleviate pressure on banks' interest margins starting in the second half of 2025 [24][30]. Liquidity Impact of Maturing Time Deposits - The large scale of maturing deposits is expected to create significant liquidity impacts, with potential inflows into the capital market. However, the transition of wealth into the capital market is viewed as a long-term process rather than an immediate outcome [30][31].