Core Viewpoint - The financial ETF (510230) has risen over 2%, indicating a potential recovery in the banking sector, with expectations for credit growth in 2026 to follow an early investment and early return strategy [1] Group 1: Credit Market Outlook - It is anticipated that in the first quarter, new credit will account for 62% to 65% of the total for the year, although the credit pace in early January may be moderate due to various factors [1] - The expected new RMB loans for the year are around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but the decline in loan yield is expected to slow down, maintaining a balance between volume and price [1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Large banks are expected to exceed expectations in total deposits at the beginning of the year, but the stability of these deposits is poor, which may disrupt banks' asset allocation behavior [1] - The non-bankization of deposits may lead to liquidity risk adjustments for some banks, particularly those under pressure from the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), potentially causing disturbances in interbank certificate pricing [1] Group 3: Financial ETF Overview - The financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects representative listed companies from banking, insurance, and securities sectors to reflect the overall performance of larger, more liquid financial enterprises in the Chinese market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in 2026, banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns, with an expectation that new credit in Q1 will account for 62%-65% of the annual total [1] - In January, the loan growth rate may be slower than usual, attributed to factors such as lower bill discount rates compared to previous years, and large banks showing seasonal strength in bond purchases, reflecting a general loan disbursement intensity [1] - The total new RMB loans for January are projected to be around 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the overall loan volume for the year is expected to be approximately 15.5 trillion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease [1] Group 2 - Large banks are expected to have a strong liquidity position at the beginning of 2026, with high levels of financial outflows and negative net financing from interbank certificates of deposit, indicating a robust deposit growth exceeding expectations [2] - The strong deposit acquisition efforts by large banks are reflected in their deposit pricing closely adhering to self-discipline limits, with marketing efforts starting earlier than usual [2] - The ability of large banks to attract corporate clients for foreign exchange services is enhanced by their superior capabilities in foreign exchange business licenses and cross-border financial services [2] Group 3 - The stability of resident deposits is under scrutiny, as it may disrupt banks' asset allocation behaviors, leading to increased demand for high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) and a tendency to shorten asset durations during critical periods [3] - The retention rate and conversion forms of high-interest time deposits after maturity remain uncertain, with an estimated 47-54 trillion yuan of resident time deposits maturing in 2026 [3] - Non-bank financialization after deposit maturity may lead to liquidity risk adjustments for some banks, particularly those with high net stable funding ratio (NSFR) pressures, although the overall liquidity pressure remains manageable [3]