Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal increase in loan issuance in June, but highlights the ongoing pressure from insufficient demand, leading to a weaker credit growth outlook for July [6][7]. Group 1: Loan Issuance and Credit Growth - In June, new loans totaled 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 670 billion yuan, indicating a relative weakness in credit growth after the initial surge at the beginning of the year [6]. - For July, it is anticipated that new RMB loans will be less than 100 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion yuan, resulting in a growth rate around 7% [6][7]. - The loan issuance pattern is expected to follow a "front low, back high" trend, with significant pressure on negative growth in early July due to the expiration of concentrated loans from June [6]. Group 2: Corporate and Retail Credit Dynamics - On the corporate side, short-term loans are expected to experience seasonal negative growth, while the demand for medium and long-term loans is declining due to ongoing economic pressures [7]. - The manufacturing sector is facing increased operational pressures, leading to a seasonal decline in financing demand, as indicated by the PMI remaining below the "expansion line" for four consecutive months [7]. - Retail credit growth remains weak, with low willingness among residents to increase leverage, particularly in mortgage loans, which are expected to show negative growth due to seasonal declines in the real estate market [7]. Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - It is projected that new social financing in July will be between 1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 300 to 500 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate around 9% [8]. - The government bond issuance is expected to be the main driver of social financing growth [8]. - M1 growth is expected to remain stable around 4.5%, while M2 growth may slightly decline to approximately 8.1%, reflecting seasonal shifts in deposits [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, Shaanxi Branch, has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy since 2025, focusing on key areas and increasing credit support to the real economy, resulting in a steady growth of financing and a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1] Group 1: Loan Growth - As of the end of June, the total balance of RMB loans in Shaanxi reached 61,173.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.93%, surpassing the national average by 0.83 percentage points [2] - In the first half of the year, new loans amounted to 3,169.07 billion yuan, an increase of 210.51 billion yuan compared to the previous year, achieving 74% of last year's total [2] - Corporate loans were the main driver of credit growth, with new loans to enterprises totaling 2,547.44 billion yuan, accounting for 80.38% of the total loan increase [2] Group 2: Sectoral Loan Distribution - The manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in medium and long-term loans, with a balance of 4,690.34 billion yuan, growing by 17.73% year-on-year [3] - Loans to the leasing and business services, manufacturing, and construction industries increased by 1,042.76 billion yuan, 362.87 billion yuan, and 350.01 billion yuan respectively, together accounting for 68% of the sectoral loan increase [2][3] Group 3: Deposit Growth - The total balance of RMB deposits in Shaanxi reached 74,896.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.29%, slightly above the national level [4] - Household deposits maintained a double-digit growth, reaching 46,424.36 billion yuan, with an increase of 2,810.01 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4] - Government bond issuance accelerated, contributing to a significant increase in fiscal deposits, which grew by 18.43% year-on-year, reaching a balance of 1,201.98 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 37.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.77 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 37.16 billion yuan, compared to 34.44 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, marking a 7.91% increase [3] - Operating profit reached 16.12 billion yuan, a 3.09% increase from 15.63 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Total profit was 16.05 billion yuan, up 3.18% from 15.56 billion yuan [3] - Basic earnings per share increased to 2.24 yuan, an 8.21% rise from 2.07 yuan [3] - The annualized return on average equity decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 13.80% [3] Asset Quality - As of June 2025, the non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, unchanged from the end of the first quarter [5] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 374.16%, up 3.62 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capacity [5] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 0.33 percentage points to 9.65% [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans and advances reached 1.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.36% [4] - The growth rate of loans and advances was 18.7%, although it decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared to the end of the first quarter [4] - Total deposits amounted to 2.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, but a decline of 4.9 percentage points from the end of the first quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has seen increased institutional research interest, with over 1,000 institutions conducting intensive investigations into bank stocks this year, reflecting a significant rise in market attention towards this sector [1][4]. Group 1: Institutional Research and Market Performance - A total of 42 listed banks have been researched 263 times by 1,667 institutions since the beginning of the year, with an overall research count of 2,724 times from their listing to the latest closing date [1]. - The Shenwan Bank Index (801780) has increased by 33.66% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 15.70% [1]. - The weighted average dividend yield of the 42 listed banks is approximately 3.61%, indicating strong investment attractiveness [1]. Group 2: Focused Banks in Research - Among the banks, rural commercial banks and city commercial banks have emerged as the main subjects of research, with the top ten banks by research frequency including four rural banks and six city banks [2]. - Changshu Bank has been the most researched, with 34 investigations, while Ningbo Bank received the highest number of institutional inquiries at 221 [3][4]. Group 3: Key Topics in Institutional Research - The most frequently discussed topics during institutional research include net interest margin stability, asset quality, and credit issuance [5][6]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.43% in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 12 basis points [5]. - Four banks among the top ten have non-performing loan ratios exceeding 1%, while the remaining six are below this threshold [6]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Interest - Foreign institutions have shown significant interest in listed banks, with Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Shanghai Bank being the most researched by foreign entities [7][8]. - The foreign capital inflow into A-shares has increased, with a notable rise in holdings of bank stocks, particularly among joint-stock banks [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The April credit data showed a significant decline due to insufficient demand, hidden debt replacement, and seasonal factors, leading to a "smaller month" characteristic. In May, loan issuance is expected to seasonally increase but may still be constrained by a lack of effective demand, resulting in a year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - The report predicts that May's new RMB loans will be around 700 billion, with a growth rate of approximately 7.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the end of April. The overall credit expansion is expected to remain weak due to insufficient effective demand [5][16]. - The report anticipates that the growth of social financing (社融) in May will be stable at around 1.9 trillion, maintaining a growth rate of 8.7%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [14][21]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Outlook - In May, the new RMB loans are expected to be around 700 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion. The credit issuance will show a seasonal rebound but will still be affected by insufficient effective demand [4][5]. - The report highlights that the corporate sector remains the mainstay of credit expansion, while retail lending continues to show weak performance. Corporate medium and long-term loans are expected to support growth, while retail loans are anticipated to remain subdued due to weak consumer demand [5][7]. Social Financing - The report forecasts that social financing will see an addition of approximately 1.9 trillion in May, with a stable growth rate of 8.7%. This stability is largely attributed to the continued issuance of government bonds [14][21]. - The breakdown of social financing indicates that the new RMB loans will contribute around 500 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of about 300 billion. The report also notes a low strength of bill discounting compared to April [15][16]. Monetary Supply - The report expects a slight upward adjustment in M1 growth for May, while M2 growth is anticipated to remain stable at around 7.9% to 8%, similar to the end of April. The growth of M1 is influenced by seasonal factors and the low base effect from the previous year [18][21]. - The report discusses the impact of fiscal deposits on the growth of resident and corporate deposits, indicating that government deposits may exert a certain crowding-out effect on these deposits [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple banks are actively responding to investor concerns regarding credit business, asset quality, and strategic planning, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize market expectations and enhance investor confidence [1] Group 1: Credit Business - Banks are aligning their credit support with national policies, focusing on private enterprises and inclusive finance as key areas for lending in 2025 [2] - Qilu Bank plans to increase support for new manufacturing, infrastructure, technology innovation, green finance, and rural revitalization, while maintaining steady growth in corporate credit [2] - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank has set a credit increment target of 50 billion yuan for the year, with a growth rate of 6% to 7%, emphasizing support for the real economy and private sector [3] Group 2: Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of the banking industry remains stable, with Qilu Bank reporting a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17%, down 0.02 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4] - Hangzhou Bank maintains a NPL ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07%, indicating strong asset quality management [4][5] Group 3: Business Strategy Planning - Banks are adopting differentiated development paths, with Lanzhou Bank focusing on its "1363" strategic layout and preparing for future strategic planning [6] - Jiangsu Bank emphasizes a balanced approach to cost reduction and growth, while expanding non-interest income through various services [7] - Chengdu Bank is advancing digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and drive high-quality development [7] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The banking sector is presented with opportunities due to policy support for green and technology finance, as well as structural monetary policy tools that optimize funding costs [7] - Leading banks can leverage resource advantages to expand wealth management and non-interest income, while regional banks should focus on local industries to build competitive advantages [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for April 2025. M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of April 2025 increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The accelerated implementation of existing fiscal policies and government financing supported the growth of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, and the initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][13]. - The low base and capital re - flow drove the rebound of M2 growth. At the end of April, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rebounded by 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating weak corporate investment willingness [3][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Financing Supports the Stable Growth of Social Financing - The implementation of existing fiscal policies accelerated, and government financing supported the significant rebound of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan, 135.72 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - Credit in the social financing caliber in April was weak. New RMB loans were 8.44 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Direct financing: corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan in April, 6.33 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 3.92 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Non - standard financing: new non - standard financing decreased by 28.73 billion yuan in April, 13.86 billion yuan less than the same period last year [13]. - New RMB loans in the financial institution caliber in April were 28 billion yuan, 45 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate department: corporate loans increased by 61 billion yuan, 25 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident department: resident loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][14]. 3.2 Low Base and Capital Re - flow Drive the Rebound of M2 Growth - At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The low base caused by the rectification of "manual interest compensation" and "squeezing water" in financial data last year, combined with the acceleration of deposit creation by government financing and the reduction of capital re - flow to wealth management products, pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M2. M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating that corporate investment willingness needs to be improved. The M1 - M2 gap was negative, and the absolute value widened to 6.50 pct [23]. - In terms of deposit structure, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year. Household deposits decreased by 139 billion yuan in April, 46 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 132.97 billion yuan, 54.28 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 157.1 billion yuan, 190.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 37.1 billion yuan, 27.29 billion yuan more than the same period last year [3][23]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Credit supply needs to pick up. The social financing data in April verified the policy effect of the front - loaded fiscal policy. Government bonds became the core source of increment, and the credit structure may reflect the strengthened support for key areas of the real economy. Although the credit growth rate may be disturbed by debt replacement in the short term, the supporting role of finance in the economy will continue to appear under the synergistic effect of policies [4][30]. - April is a traditional "low - credit month", and combined with the uncertainty of foreign trade, credit demand may be under pressure in the short term. However, a package of financial policies introduced in May is expected to boost confidence. In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of special treasury bonds and the marginal impact of changes in the foreign trade environment on the demand side. The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted from "responding to shocks" to "structural breakthroughs" [4][30]. - There is adjustment pressure in the short - term bond market, and the yield curve of bonds becomes steeper. It is recommended that investors grasp the rhythm, trading accounts increase positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to the opportunity to intervene when the supply of local bonds increases [4][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector demonstrates strong resilience in fundamentals, with stable profitability and asset quality. In Q1 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion, with a year-on-year profit growth decline of 2.3% [4][5]. - The report highlights that the decline in profit growth is consistent with the previous year, with non-interest income contributing 25% to total revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the stability of asset quality, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51%, slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of the previous year [23][24]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Revenue - In Q1 2025, the profitability of commercial banks decreased by 2.3%, with state-owned banks showing a profit growth of 0.1%, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experienced declines of 4.5%, 6.7%, and 2% respectively [5][7]. - The report notes that the net interest margin (NIM) narrowed to 1.43%, down 9 basis points year-on-year, with state-owned banks having a NIM of 1.33% [15][18]. Credit and Asset Quality - The report indicates that credit issuance remains strong, with total assets of commercial banks growing at a rate of 7.2% year-on-year. New loans and non-credit assets increased by 9.1 trillion and 4.6 trillion respectively [8][9]. - The NPL ratio remains stable at 1.51%, with a provision coverage ratio above 200%, indicating a robust capacity to absorb potential losses [23][24]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the risk-weighted assets (RWA) of commercial banks grew by 6.4%, leading to a slight decline in capital adequacy ratios across various bank types [29][30]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks stands at 10.7%, reflecting a decrease from the previous year [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, particularly large state-owned banks, which exhibit solid investment value due to their high dividend rates [31][44]. - It also highlights the potential of mid-sized banks with convertible bonds, which have shown strong performance recently [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April released by the People's Bank of China indicates a stable and supportive monetary environment for economic recovery, with an acceleration in social financing and steady credit issuance [1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month; the narrow money supply (M1) grew by 1.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The central bank has increased short-term and medium-term liquidity through various operations, indicating a solid financial support for economic recovery [1] Social Financing - By the end of April, the total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the cumulative increase in social financing for the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The acceleration in social financing growth is attributed to a lower base from the previous year and a significant increase in government bond issuance [2] Loan Growth - The balance of RMB loans reached 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; in April, RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, which is 450 billion yuan less than the same month last year [3] - The decrease in loan growth is influenced by seasonal factors and changes in the financing market, with April traditionally being a "small month" for credit [3] Loan Structure - In the loan structure, corporate loans contributed the majority of the increase, while household loans showed a decline; corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan, which is 250 billion yuan less than the previous year, while household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan [4] - The decline in household loans, particularly in short-term loans, indicates a need for further stimulation of consumer demand [4] Future Measures - The implementation of a series of financial policies is expected to support consumption recovery and growth; measures include the establishment of re-loans for service consumption and elderly care, aimed at reducing financing costs for financial institutions [5] - Fiscal and tax policies are also emphasized to support the development of new consumption sectors, creating new demand and enhancing consumer spending [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From May 6 - 9, short - term varieties performed well, with the 1Y CD rate breaking through the resistance level around 1.75% and dropping nearly 10BP. From May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds increased significantly to 6453 billion yuan, putting pressure on the capital market. However, the RRR cut on May 15 will provide 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity support, and it is expected that the capital interest rate will remain around 1.5%. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, and the short - term still has value. If the capital interest rate stays around the policy rate, when the 1Y CD rate drops to around 1.6%, profit - taking is needed [3][9]. - The "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has three key points: First, it affirms the phased results of interest rate formation and transmission and will further improve the interest rate regulation framework; second, it shifts from focusing on activating the stock and preventing idling to increasing credit investment and highlighting quantitative tools; third, it mentions the US tariff policy multiple times and sets up a special column to discuss government debt and inflation [3][9][13]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Current Situation and Future Concerns - On May 7, a package of financial policies were introduced. From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was negative, but the capital price declined slowly before the interest rate cut on May 8, which may be related to the central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 1 trillion yuan from May 6 - 7. After the interest rate cut on May 8, the capital price dropped significantly. As of May 9, DR001 was 1.49%, R001 was 1.52%, DR007 was 1.54%, and R007 was 1.58%. The spread between DR007 and 7DOMO was 14BP, and the spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [8]. - The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, the long - end adjustment was larger, and the yield curve steepened. In the short term, the possibility of further easing decreased, and the short - term still has value [9]. 2. Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan. The bill interest rate changed little from May 6 - 9, with the 3M national - share discount rate rising from 1.07% to 1.09% and the six - month national - share transfer discount rate remaining around 1.07% [32][34]. 3. Open - Market Operation Tracking - As of May 9, the central bank's total open - market operation balance was 9664.1 billion yuan, including a pledged reverse - repurchase balance of 836.1 billion yuan, a repurchase - style reverse - repurchase balance of 460 billion yuan, and an MLF balance of 465.7 billion yuan. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan [39]. 4. Government Bond Tracking 4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From May 5 - 9, treasury bonds were issued for 37.1 billion yuan with a net financing of 19.558 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 10.5459 billion yuan with a net financing of 6.7224 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, treasury bonds were issued for 55 billion yuan with a net financing of 46.067 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 19.725 billion yuan with a net financing of 17.1114 billion yuan [45][47]. 4.2 Government Bond Payment - From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at - 75.42 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 63.13 billion yuan. It is expected that from May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds will be 645.32 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at 481.67 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 163.65 billion yuan [52]. 5. Inter - Bank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 5.1 Primary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, inter - bank CDs were issued for 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 368.5 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, the maturity of inter - bank CDs was 593.9 billion yuan. In terms of bank types, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale; in terms of maturity types, 1Y had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 97%. The issuance success rate of state - owned banks was the highest at 100%, and that of 1Y was 98%. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and all maturities decreased significantly [57][58]. 5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, after the central bank announced the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the secondary - market yields of CDs of all maturities decreased significantly, with the 3M CD yield dropping by 13bp and the yields of other maturities dropping by about 8bp [80]. 6. Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of March 2025 was 1.00%. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 781.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, reducing the excess reserve scale by 769.41 billion yuan in total [86].