| | "以民唯美、向实而行"的企业使命，持续深耕区域沃土， | | --- | --- | | | 力争贷款规模的稳步增长。 | | | 3、贵行未来现金分红水平如何预期？ | | | 答：近年来，本行现金分红水平稳中有升，始终维持 | | | 30%以上的现金分红比例。为进一步明确投资者预期，增强 | | | 投资者获得感，本行已实施 2025 年半年度权益分派。2025 | | | 年全年利润分配总额及现金分红比例将根据全年最新经营 | | | 情况确定，力争给股东提供持续、稳定、合理的投资回报。 | | | 接待过程中，公司接待人员与投资者进行了充分的交流与 | | 关于本次活动是否 | | | 涉及应披露重大信 | 沟通，严格按照有关制度规定，没有出现未公开重大信息 | | 息的说明 | 泄露等情况。 | | 活动过程中所使用 | | | 的演示文稿、提供的 | | | 文档等附件（如有， | | | 可作为附件） | | 2 | | | 编号：2025-17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | □分析师会议 特定对象调研 | | | | 投资者关系活动类 | □媒 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges in retail credit issuance, with retail loan growth rate declining from 3% to 2.3% year-on-year, and a negative balance of approximately 67 billion in the third quarter [1] - New loan interest rates are decreasing at a slower pace, with personal housing mortgage rates being the lowest, indicating a significant slowdown in the downward trend of new loan interest rates in the third quarter [1] - The financial sector is expected to see a decline in total financial growth, necessitating banks to adjust their asset allocation strategies and streamline their interest rate systems [1] - The monetary policy for the fourth quarter is primarily focused on stability, with the central bank increasing oversight on banks' interest rate pricing and self-regulatory practices, which may help stabilize commercial banks' net interest margins [1] Summary by Categories Credit Issuance - Retail loan growth rate has decreased from 3% to 2.3% year-on-year, with a negative balance of about 67 billion in the third quarter [1] Loan Interest Rates - The decline in new loan interest rates is slowing down, with personal housing mortgage rates being the lowest, indicating a notable deceleration in the downward trend of interest rates [1] Financial Sector Outlook - The overall financial growth rate is expected to decline, leading banks to revise their asset allocation strategies and improve their interest rate frameworks [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank's monetary policy for the fourth quarter will focus on stability, with increased scrutiny on banks' interest rate pricing and self-regulation, potentially aiding in the stabilization of net interest margins for commercial banks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector as of Q4 2025 [5][21]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the growth of social financing remains under pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in October 2025, which is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to August [8][9]. - Credit growth is weak, with a notable reliance on bill financing to compensate for the decline in traditional loans [13][14]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is expected to show relative strength due to stabilizing interest margins and positive fundamental changes [21][22]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In October 2025, social financing increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with a total increment of 815 billion yuan, which is 597 billion yuan less than the previous year [9][10]. - The total amount of RMB loans decreased by 201 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.166 billion yuan, indicating a seasonal dip in credit [8][9]. - Government bond issuance saw a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, further weakening the support for social financing [10][11]. - Direct corporate financing increased by 189.4 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 148.2 billion yuan and stock financing up by 41.2 billion yuan [10][11]. Loan Structure - Total RMB loans grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant decline, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans both under pressure, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 5.156 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans primarily relied on bill discounting, which increased by 331.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while general loans saw a notable decrease [14][15]. Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates showed marginal declines, with M1 growing by 6.2% and M2 by 8.2% year-on-year [18][19]. - In October 2025, new RMB deposits totaled 610 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan, despite a significant drop in household deposits [18][20]. - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a shift away from traditional household savings [18][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality small and medium-sized banks, with specific buy ratings for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [21][22]. - It also suggests considering state-owned banks with stable fundamentals, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, which are currently unrated [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.5%. The new social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate declined from 8.7% to 8.5%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.4% to 8.2% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of the new M1 caliber dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%. Overall, October is a small month for credit at the beginning of the quarter, mainly relying on on-balance-sheet bills to make up for the shortfall. Among them, short-term household loans are the main drag, and the "shopping festival" effect has limited driving force. In the fourth quarter, due to the high base of government bond issuance, the growth rate of social financing continues to decline. The M2 growth rate slightly declines, with non-bank deposits being the main supporting item, and the M1 growth rate ends its six-month upward trend [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Short-term Household Loans as the Main Drag, and Long-term Corporate Loans Weakening - **Household Sector**: In October, short-term household loans decreased by 286.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 335.6 billion yuan, continuing to be significantly lower than the seasonal level. Long-term household loans decreased by 70 billion yuan, recording a negative growth for the first time in recent years, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan. The month-on-month sprint effect of new and second-hand housing sales is not significant. Under the high base and policy stability, the overall sales performance is weaker than that in September [2][10]. - **Corporate Sector**: In October, long-term corporate loans only increased by 30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140 billion yuan. The relatively strong corporate loans at the end of September may have partially overdrawn the quota for October. Coupled with the limited driving force of policy-based financial instruments and the approach of the economic "off-season" at the end of the year, it is difficult for long-term corporate loans to have a significant increase. In terms of bills, bill financing increased by 500.6 billion yuan in the same month, a year-on-year increase of 331.2 billion yuan, and the demand for bills to "make up for the shortfall" significantly increased [2][15]. Social Financing: The Support of Government Bonds Declines at the End of the Year, and Entrusted Loans Increase - **Government Bonds**: The issuance of government bonds decreased in October, with new government bonds of 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan. In the fourth quarter, it enters the off-season for bond issuance. The net financing of government bonds from November to December may be 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing may decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][17]. - **Entrusted Loans and Undiscounted Bills**: Driven by the "500 billion" policy-based financial instruments, entrusted loans increased by 165.3 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 187.2 billion yuan, becoming an important supporting item for social financing. In addition, undiscounted bills decreased by 289.4 billion yuan in October, 149.8 billion yuan lower than the same period last year. Due to the relatively strong credit performance in September, the conversion of undiscounted bills to on-balance-sheet was limited. In October, banks' concentrated "ticket grabbing" in the secondary market led to a significant decrease in off-balance-sheet bills [3][23]. Deposits: High Growth of Non-bank Deposits, Possibly Driven by Both Wealth Management Growth and the Equity Market - **M1 and M2 - M1 Spread**: The month-on-month increase of the new M1 caliber was lower than that of the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 spread slightly widened. In October last year, there was a high base for M1. In October, the new M1 caliber decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, 1.0 trillion yuan more than the decrease in 2024. In terms of growth rate, the year-on-year reading of M1 decreased from 7.2% to 6.2% [4][27]. - **Non-bank Deposits and Household Deposits**: Among the M2 components, non-bank deposits increased significantly beyond the seasonal level again, while household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. By sector, non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan in October, 770 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan in the same month, 770 billion yuan more than the decrease in the same period last year. Since October, the equity market has continued to be strong, and the growth of wealth management product scale at the beginning of the quarter may jointly drive the decrease in household deposits and the significant increase in non-bank deposits [4][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - In October, credit issuance is expected to seasonally weaken, with new RMB loans projected to be around 200 to 400 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 100 to 300 billion [4][6] - Social financing (社融) is anticipated to be between 600 to 800 billion, with a growth rate declining to approximately 8.4% [12][15] - The government bond remains the main contributor to social financing growth, while the overall financing demand is expected to remain weak in the short term [15][19] Summary by Sections Credit Market - The expected new RMB loans for October are between 2000 to 4000 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1000 to 3000 billion, leading to a month-end growth rate of approximately 6.5% to 6.6% [6][16] - Corporate credit is expected to see a seasonal decline, with short-term loans potentially turning negative due to weakened business sentiment [7][8] Social Financing - The forecast for new social financing in October is between 6000 to 8000 billion, with a growth rate around 8.4%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [12][15] - Government bonds are projected to contribute significantly to social financing, with net financing expected to be 5281 billion, lower than the previous year's figures [13] Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to decline due to high base effects, with M1 and M2 increments projected at -526 billion and 2294 billion respectively [19][22] - The seasonal effects of fiscal revenue and the expansion of asset management products are influencing the dynamics between government and general deposits [19]

Core Insights - Chengdu Bank's Q3 2025 report highlights its robust asset quality and strategic positioning as a key financial support for the construction of the Western Financial Center and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle [1][2]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - Chengdu Bank maintains a low non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.68% and a provision coverage ratio of 433.08%, placing it in the top tier of the banking industry [2]. - The bank's NPL ratio has remained at a historical low of 0.66% for six consecutive quarters, with a provision coverage ratio of 452.65%, significantly exceeding industry averages [2]. - The bank employs a refined risk control system, utilizing a comprehensive industry research framework and intelligent risk control technologies to predict and manage credit risks effectively [2]. - As of September, the bank's capital adequacy ratios are well above regulatory requirements, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 8.77%, Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.52%, and total capital ratio of 14.39% [2]. Credit Investment and Regional Development - Chengdu Bank's credit issuance aligns with the national policy to enhance financial support for the real economy, with total assets reaching 1.385 trillion yuan, a 10.81% increase year-on-year [3]. - The bank's loan and advance total reached 847.48 billion yuan, growing 14.13% from the previous year, thus contributing significantly to regional credit growth [3]. - The bank's deposits totaled 986.43 billion yuan, with an increase of 100.57 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 11.35% [3]. Strategic Development and Growth - Chengdu Bank's strategic layout is closely aligned with the Chengdu-Chongqing financial collaboration policies, focusing on expanding its core business areas while developing new growth avenues [4]. - The bank has seen explosive growth in its cross-regional business, with over 30% of new deposits and loans coming from this segment, including personal deposits surpassing 100 billion yuan [4]. - The retail banking sector has shown significant progress, with over 5 million mobile banking users and a notable increase in personal consumption loans, reflecting a strong alignment with macroeconomic policies [4]. National Strategy and Financial Services - Chengdu Bank integrates its development with national strategies, focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [5][6]. - The bank has provided substantial funding for major projects, including over 45 billion yuan in special bonds and more than 16 billion yuan for local infrastructure [6]. - The bank's focus on key industries and innovative financial products has led to significant loan issuance to strategic emerging industries, with over 80% coverage for specialized enterprises [6]. Future Outlook - Chengdu Bank aims to leverage opportunities from the Western Financial Center and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, focusing on high-quality development and expanding its business footprint [7].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant role of banks in the bond market, highlighting that their asset allocation behavior not only determines their own profit models and risk preferences but also profoundly influences bond market trends and pricing mechanisms [1][9] - It identifies a need for more granular analysis of banks' asset-liability management and how their allocation behaviors evolve dynamically with economic cycles, regulatory constraints, and risk management strategies [2][9] Group 1: Static Relationship Between Bank Balance Sheets and Bond Markets - The logic of bank asset allocation is embedded within the framework of their balance sheets, where the liability side determines funding costs and stability, while the asset side reflects the trade-off between credit issuance and financial investments [3] - An increase in deposit growth and a decrease in funding costs lead banks to favor long-term government and local bonds, while weak deposit growth or rising interest rates push banks towards higher volatility, shorter-term assets [3][4] Group 2: Dynamic Transmission of Credit Issuance to Bond Markets - Empirical analysis from 2016 to 2025 using VAR models reveals that household short-term loans have a leading effect on bond markets, with their growth leading to rising ten-year government bond yields within four months [5] - In contrast, household medium- to long-term loans, primarily reflecting real estate demand, influence bond yields with a lag of 8 to 12 months, while corporate loans have a less significant and sustained impact on bond yields [6] Group 3: Heterogeneous Impact of Bond Investment Categories - The study categorizes bond investments into three types based on accounting treatment and finds that different types of banks exhibit varying impacts on government bond yields [7] - State-owned banks' investments in FVOCI accounts tend to lower government bond yields, while smaller banks, facing higher funding costs, often engage in strategies that increase market volatility [7] Group 4: Comprehensive Conclusions and Policy Implications - The research reveals that credit issuance is pro-cyclical while bond investment is counter-cyclical, reflecting the macro-regulatory function of bank asset allocation [8] - It suggests optimizing bond asset allocation, improving internal fund transfer pricing mechanisms, and strengthening risk management frameworks to enhance the sustainability of smaller banks [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) will remain unchanged in October, as various analysts believe there is no urgent need for a reduction given the current economic conditions and credit data [1][5][6]. Group 1: LPR Stability - Analysts predict that both the one-year and five-year LPR will hold steady in October due to stable policy interest rates and positive credit data [1][2]. - The current low levels of corporate and personal loan rates suggest that lowering the LPR is not a priority at this time [3][6]. - The pressure on bank interest margins and the need to meet year-end credit targets are factors contributing to the expectation of no change in the LPR [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Adjustments - Some analysts anticipate a potential reduction of 10 to 30 basis points in the LPR by the end of the year, particularly if external economic pressures, such as U.S. tariff policies, continue to impact global trade [4][10]. - The possibility of a rate cut is also supported by the need to stimulate credit demand and stabilize the real estate market [10][11]. - The recent actions of the People's Bank of China, including significant reverse repurchase operations, indicate a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, aiming to avoid excessive pressure on bank margins [6][8]. Group 3: External Influences - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a factor that could influence future LPR adjustments, although its immediate impact is limited [7][8]. - Analysts note that the domestic banking sector's pressure on interest margins may necessitate a prior reduction in deposit rates before any LPR cuts can effectively lower loan rates [8][10]. - The overall economic environment, including inflation levels and credit demand, will play a crucial role in determining the timing and extent of any future LPR adjustments [9][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The financial data for September 2025 shows a new social financing scale of 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][7]. - New RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan in September, a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, continuing the trend from August [2][7]. - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with a notable improvement in the sales of commercial housing in major cities, which positively impacted the growth of medium to long-term loans for residents [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan. The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 8.7% year-on-year, which is a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][8]. - The new RMB loans for September were 1.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan [2][8]. Loan Structure Analysis - The report indicates that corporate loans in September amounted to 1.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 270 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans for residents showed improvement due to a recovery in the housing market [7][8]. - The report notes that the demand for credit remains relatively weak compared to the first half of the year, with banks being more cautious in their lending practices [7]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector showed a decline of 0.7% over the past month, but a positive trend over 6 months (7.5%) and 12 months (16.0%) [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies in the banking sector, suggesting that banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality present good investment opportunities [7].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September, the new social financing (社融) amounted to 3.5 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.7%, slightly down from the previous value of 8.8%[3] - New RMB loans totaled 1.29 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.6%, down from 6.8% previously[3] - M2 growth rate was 8.4%, a decrease from 8.8% in the prior month, while M1 growth rate increased to 7.2% from 6%[3] Group 2: Structural Insights - The decline in social financing was primarily influenced by credit and government bonds, with "non-standard" financing and direct corporate financing contributing positively[3] - New corporate loans were approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, down by about 3.7 billion RMB year-on-year, while government bonds decreased by 3.5 billion RMB[3] - The increase in "non-standard" financing was about 3.6 billion RMB, up by approximately 1.87 billion RMB year-on-year[3] Group 3: Deposit and Monetary Supply Trends - New RMB deposits reached 2.2 trillion RMB, down by 1.53 trillion RMB year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 760 billion RMB[3] - The broad money supply (M2) growth rate declined by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a continued trend of capital activation[3] - The M1-M2 spread continues to widen, suggesting ongoing liquidity in the market[3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - The current trend indicates a shift towards a favorable environment for interest rate declines, supported by a loose monetary policy from the central bank[3] - Risks include potential unexpected declines in the overseas economy and macroeconomic policies exceeding expectations[5]