德国央行行长内格尔：金融市场有其自身的语言，正显示出美联储的行动对市场的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the case of an 18-year-old high school student, Hu Yixiao, who went missing after traveling from Nanjing to Xishuangbanna, with local authorities confirming the situation and actively searching for him [1][4]. Summary by Sections - **Incident Overview** - Hu Yixiao, an 18-year-old, was reported missing after flying to Xishuangbanna on June 5 and losing contact near Mengle Avenue and Mengla Road [4]. - His father, Hu Zongbing, expressed concern over his son's disappearance, stating that it has been over a month without any news [4]. - **Background Information** - Hu Yixiao participated in high school exams in March and left school in April to seek employment in Hefei [5]. - He is described as approximately 180 cm tall with a mole on his right chin [5].

特朗普签署行政命令将关税暂缓期延长至8月1日，缓解全球金融市场紧张情绪。周二亚洲股市明显反弹，日韩股市集体上扬。外汇市场中，欧 元、英镑回升带动美元走弱，但日元兑美元仍跌至两周低点。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。但这并非 百分百确定，报道称，特朗普再谈8月1日关税谈判截止日时表示，8月1日截止日期已确定，但不是百分百确定，如果有国家提出了不同的方案， 他会对其他想法持开放态度。 总体来说关税威胁暂缓让金融市场松了一口气。7月8日（周二），亚洲股市多数上涨，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至1%，韩国首尔综指一度涨超 1.5%，目前回落至0.8%附近；日经225指数一度上涨0.5%，目前涨幅有所回落。泰国、越南主要股指亦同步上涨，MSCI亚洲股指在窄幅区间交 投。 外汇市场方面，其他货币在周一下跌后周二有所回升。欧元兑美元上涨0.3%至1.1742，英镑兑美元上涨0.24%至1.3631。美元指数下跌约0.2%。 | 欧元/美元 | 1.1742 | +0.0035 | +0.30% | 1.1709 - 1.1747 | 1 ...

上周市场整体反弹，主要指数多数上涨。截止周五收盘，沪指收于3424.23点，周涨1.91%；创业板指收于2124.34点，周涨5.69%。 中信行业板块方面：综合金融、计算机、综合指数涨幅居前；交通运输、食品饮料、石油石化指数跌幅居前。 | 1 | | 估值水平 | 周涨跌幅 | 近一季度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (PE TTM) | | 涨跌幅 | | | A股主要 | 创业板指 | 32. 16 | 5.69% | -0. 18% | -0. 81% | | 中证1000 | | 38. 57 | 4.62% | 0. 14% | 5. 36% | | 科创创 /50 | | 42. 58 | 4.04% | -1.04% | -3.10% | | 中证500 | | 28. 71 | 3.98% | -0.88% | 2. 41% | | 深证成指 | | 26. 53 | 3. 73% | -2.16% | +0. 35% | | 证券指数 | 利创50 | 136. 72 | 3. 17% | -4.01% | -0.07% | ...

中国央行第二季度例会：研究下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加大货币政策调控强度。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排。加力支持科技创新、提振消费，做好“两重”“两新”等重点领域的融资支持。 ...

最近两年，全球经J都不太平。 又是地缘冲突、又是经J数据低迷。 但就在这一场经J危机之后，我们开启了第一轮的财富转移。 全球经济似乎已经到了危机的边缘。 但是，巴菲特在今年致股东的信中就告诫过我们： 不要浪费每一次的危机 为什么呢？ 因为每一次危机之后，都是一次财富转移。 而每一次财富转移，都是 我们每个普通人实现财富进阶的机会。 过去40年，我们经历了两轮的大规模财富转移。 第一次大规模财富转移，是在上世纪90年代。 90年代初期，苏东巨变、苏联解体，我们的经济也因为价格闯关受到了冲击，通胀率一度高达 20%以上。 这一次财富转移的源头是 工业化+城市化的浪潮 。 工业化+城市化，带动的是财富、人口以及土地资源逐渐从农村流向城市。 所以在这个阶段，你能看到8亿农民进城、你能看到大量农田和G有土地被转化成了工业用地和城 市住宅用地，导致了土地产权的大调整。 而第一轮的财富转移，主要的方式是 以地生财 。 土地通过30年的房贷，用撬动杠杆的方式撬动了财富循坏。 钱都跑到土地和房子上面流转了，自然会把这一部分资产价格拉上去。 所以，作为普通人，如果你能在这个时间段在农村拥有一块地，或者是在城市里拥有一套房，那 你 ...

韩国央行：将密切关注中东局势发展对金融市场和经济的影响。 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time since the end of 2024, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.8% for 2024, despite challenges, and the unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in December 2024 [4][5] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core PCE price index dropping to 2.1% in early 2024 but rebounding to 2.8% by May 2025, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, leading to a shift from aggressive rate hikes to a more cautious stance [5] - Following a series of rate increases from near-zero to a peak of 5.33%, the Fed has since implemented three rate cuts in 2024, bringing the current rate to 4.25% to 4.5% [5] - Economic forecasts for 2025 indicate a GDP growth adjustment from 1.7% to 1.4% and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.5%, highlighting the need for careful policy balancing [5][6] External Influences - Global economic uncertainties, particularly changes in trade policies and tariffs, have impacted the Fed's decision-making process, necessitating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [6] - The Fed's policy contrasts with other central banks, which have initiated rate cuts, reflecting the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision on June 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets reacted moderately, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.2% and the S&P 500 slightly declining by 0.03% [7] - Market expectations suggest two potential rate cuts in 2025, with probabilities of maintaining rates in July at 89% and a 61% chance of a cut in September [7] Impact on Consumers - The current interest rate environment, while lower than 2023 peaks, remains high, affecting borrowing costs for consumers, particularly in housing and auto loans [8] - The average 30-year mortgage rate stood at approximately 6.7% in March 2025, significantly higher than 3.0% in 2021, leading to reduced demand in the housing market [8] - High interest rates benefit savers with yields above 4% on high-yield savings accounts, but potential future rate cuts may compress these returns [8] Future Outlook - The Fed's cautious stance is expected to continue into the latter half of 2025, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.1% and unemployment slightly increasing [9] - The Fed's policy will remain flexible, adapting to economic data and external factors, including geopolitical risks and climate change [9]

日本央行：必须密切关注贸易政策对金融市场和外汇市场的影响。 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an overall decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% and the CSI 1000 down 0.8% for the week[2] - The Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.9%[2] - The S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.6% during the week[2] Sector Performance - The metals, petrochemical, and agriculture sectors led gains, while food and beverage, home appliances, and construction sectors lagged[2] - The pharmaceutical sector rose by 1.4%, marking its eighth consecutive week of gains[2] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume increased to 1.37 trillion yuan, up 13% from the previous week[4] - The turnover rate for the entire A-share market was 1.6%, with a Z-score increase from 0.4 to 0.8, indicating higher trading activity compared to the historical average[4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index was 12.7, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E ratio of 39.9[4] Bond Market and Economic Indicators - The bond market showed low volatility, with the central bank injecting 173.8 billion yuan into the market on June 9, leading to a decrease in the DR007 rate to 1.54%[4] - Social financing growth remained stable at 8.7%, with a slight decline in new loans and M2 growth compared to the previous month[4] Commodity Market - The US dollar index fell by 1.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% against the dollar, closing at 7.19[4] - Gold prices surged by 3.7% to $3,433 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions following Israel's attack on Iran[4] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 13.0%, reaching $73.2 per barrel, marking the largest weekly gain since November 2022[4]