联邦公开市场委员会议息会议将在约5小时后召开。CME"美联储观察"工具的数据显示，市场普遍预计 美联储将于本次会议上降息25个基点： ·400–425区间（降息25bp）：概率94.0%（较昨日95.0%略有回 落） ·375–400区间（降息50bp）：概率6.0%（较昨日5.0%有所提升） ·维持现状概率为0。 美联储本轮 加息周期始于2022年3月，至今已经持续了3年零6个月。美联储在2023年7月进行了最后一次加息至 5.25%–5.50%，并维持至今。截至昨日收盘，纳斯达克综合指数在这期间上涨超9000点，幅度为 70.04%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨35.97%，S&P500指数上涨54.07%。 美联储传声筒Nick Timiraos认为 此次会议有以下看点： 1.美联储会发出进一步降息的信号吗？在季度经济预测中，鲍威尔和他的同事们 可能暗示2025年将总共降息三次。 2.谁会反对利率调整？在7月份的会议上，美联储的两位行长米歇尔· 鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒都反对维持利率不变的决定。他们是否会再次反对，还是认为更激进的降息是 必要的？ 3.新人将如何投票？特朗普总统的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰本周获参议院 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown and a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to finalize the meeting's participant list just before the meeting is unprecedented, indicating potential internal conflicts among officials [2][4]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is approximately 96%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [6]. - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [8]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts and Predictions - The internal division within the Federal Reserve may be more pronounced than in previous meetings, with some officials advocating for a larger rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [11][12]. - The addition of Milan to the Federal Reserve is expected to strengthen the faction supporting more aggressive rate cuts, while the hawkish side remains significant [12]. Group 3: Dot Plot and Future Rate Cuts - The dot plot will be closely watched for indications of future rate cuts, particularly regarding the number of cuts expected in 2025 and the potential for increased divergence in 2026 predictions [13][14]. - Analysts predict that the dot plot will show two rate cuts for the year, with the possibility of an adjustment based on internal disagreements [17][20]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically shows positive returns in the 12 to 24 months following the Federal Reserve's first or resumed rate cuts [22][23]. - In periods of strong economic performance with limited rate cuts, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials tend to outperform, while defensive sectors gain traction during more aggressive rate cuts [26][30]. - Gold prices historically rise when the Federal Reserve cuts rates amid high inflation, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [26].