Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change, aligning with market expectations [1] - Changes in the June FOMC statement include the removal of "recent months" to emphasize the long-term low unemployment rate, a modification of the economic outlook uncertainty, and the return of Kansas City Fed President Esther George to the voting committee [1] - The Fed raised the median interest rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4%, indicating a slowdown in the rate cut process in the coming years [1] Group 2 - Following the June rate decision, the US dollar index rose, closing at 98.85 on June 18 and reaching a high of 99.16 on June 19, reflecting market expectations for rate cuts in September and December [2] - There is a potential for the dollar index to rebound to the 99-100 range due to adjustments in interest rate expectations, especially if inflation risks increase from oil prices and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced a decline post-Fed meeting, with London gold falling to 3369 yuan per ounce and silver dropping below 37 dollars per ounce [3]

美联储即将搅动全球金融市场。 今晚，市场正密切关注美联储即将公布的利率政策决议。根据日程安排，美联储将于美东时间6月18日下午2点 （北京时间19日凌晨2点）公布利率决议，随后，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会，将释放最新的货币政 策信号。 目前市场一致预期，美联储将维持利率不变。因此，市场最关注的焦点将是鲍威尔的讲话和利率"点阵图"。美 股开盘后，三大指数集体走强，美股大型科技股多数上涨，美股"稳定币第一股"Circle大涨超8%。 在利率公布前夕，美国总统特朗普重申美联储应降息。他在最新的讲话中表示，鲍威尔今天可能不会降息，如 果将联邦基金利率降低2.5个百分点会非常好。他还透露，将采取短期措施，降低利率，然后采取长期措施 （他暗示发行债券）。 美股全线走强 北京时间6月18日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数集体走强，截至22:30，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨0.65%，标普500 指数涨0.56%。 其中，美股"稳定币第一股"Circle大涨超8%。消息面上，当地时间6月17日，美国参议院表决结果通过了《指 导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》，标志着美国稳定币监管立法迈出实质性一步。 美国最大的加密货币交易所Co ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has shifted its stance from a dovish approach, indicating uncertainty due to tariffs and trade policies, and will rely on actual economic data before determining monetary policy direction [1][2] - The interest rate dot plot released in March 2025 indicated two rate cuts, but this is no longer a reliable market guide due to increasing uncertainty [2] - The threshold for rate cuts has been raised, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates to support economic growth, as tariffs pose a high risk of rising inflation [2] Group 2 - The company prefers regions outside the U.S., such as Europe and China, which have strong fiscal and monetary policy support to offset the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth [3] - In terms of interest rate-related assets, the company favors regions like India and China, where market correlations with U.S. Treasury yields are lower [3] - The company anticipates that U.S. financial stocks will perform well if the Trump administration's legislative agenda, including tax cuts and deregulation, gains traction [3] Group 3 - The company expects the Chinese stock market to remain resilient relative to Fed policy decisions, supported by fiscal and monetary policy and robust economic activity [4] - The company predicts a gradual easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which will be positively received by the market [4]

来源|财联社 既做不了"鸽派"，也当不成"鸽派"，在有着"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos看来，今晚迎来3月议息会议的美联储主席鲍威尔，似乎 已成为了一只饱受束缚的"鸭子"：表面上平静，但实际上却在"浑浊的水面下不断拨动着脚掌"。 这或许是在今晚的美联储利率决议之前，对美联储眼下处境最为贴切的形容——没错，鲍威尔已担任美联储主席七年，期间，美国已先后经历了特朗普发 动的第一轮贸易战、新冠疫情、历史性通胀和备受瞩目的银行倒闭事件。但即便是在这主席任期的最后一年里，鲍威尔身上的担子依然丝毫并不见得轻 松： 他的考验已从如何实现经济软着陆，变为了如何应对一场可能给美国经济带来巨大不确定性的贸易战2.0。 而北京时间明日凌晨2点，鲍威尔和他的同僚们就将迎来必须做出抉择的首道考验——在特朗普关税等政策造成双重冲击的背景下(既可能压垮就业，也可 能重燃通胀)，如何对年内的利率走向和经济前景作出预测和指引？即便这一次，美联储几乎完全不可能在3月会议上降息…… 事实上，哪怕是"鸭子"，也能分成很多种——例如呆萌温和的可达鸭、毒舌傲娇的唐老鸭，以及在关税战和反制措施下被烤得"外酥里嫩"的北京烤鸭。今 晚 ...