Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - During the holiday, steel prices were stable, and rebounded slightly after the holiday. Steel production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October after the holiday, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The steel export volume remained high on the 6th, and short - term supply and demand are basically balanced with little inventory pressure. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in January contracts should focus on the support levels of 3050 and 3200 respectively. Unilateral trading has no obvious driver. For arbitrage, reverse spreads on monthly differentials should be considered when they are high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar should converge [3]. Iron Ore Industry - On the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore prices fluctuated and rose, mainly due to the peak - season expectation in October, high iron - making water production, and concerns about Australian ore supply. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the overseas iron ore swap prices follow the domestic trend. Iron ore has the driving force to rebound, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival volume of BHP shipments [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - After the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot prices. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increases, but may face downward pressure due to falling steel prices and compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak, but futures have advanced the rebound expectation due to supply - side disturbances. For trading strategies, long positions can be taken at low prices for coking coal 2601, reverse spreads can be considered for coke 1 - 5, and out - of - the - money call options for coke 2601 can be bought at low prices [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, down 30, 20, and 20 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The daily average iron - making water production is 241.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.1%); the production of five major steel products is 863.3 tons, down 3.8 tons (- 0.4%); the rebar production is 203.4 tons, down 3.6 tons (- 1.7%) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1600.7 tons, up 127.9 tons (8.7%); the rebar inventory is 659.6 tons, up 57.4 tons (9.5%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 tons, up 32.3 tons (8.5%) [3]. Demand - The building materials trading volume is 12.0 tons, up 3.9 tons (49.0%); the apparent demand for five major steel products is 751.4 tons, down 153.4 tons (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of different types of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with an increase of about 0.7% - 0.8%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.9%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.1% [5]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume is 2608.7 tons, up 248.2 tons (10.5%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3279.0 tons, down 196.4 tons (- 5.7%); the national monthly import volume is 10522.5 tons, up 61.5 tons (0.6%) [5]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 241.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.1%); the weekly average daily 45 - port ore - unloading volume is 0.0 tons, down 336.4 tons (- 100.0%); the national monthly pig - iron production is 6979.3 tons, down 100.5 tons (- 1.4%); the national monthly crude - steel production is 7736.9 tons, down 229.0 tons (- 2.9%) [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.2% week - on - week; the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1%; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 16.0% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 3.4%, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 2.7%. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts in January and May increased. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased by 7.4% [9]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The weekly production of raw coal in Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 3.6%, and the production of clean coal products decreased by 4.4% [9]. Demand - The weekly iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged, while that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% [9]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5%, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 14.5%, while that of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased [9]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly by 3.2% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry in China is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand due to high temperatures and rainy weather, leading to decreased operational load of cement mills and a high clinker kiln shutdown rate [1] Industry Summary - In August, the average price of cement was 271.67 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline [1] - The demand for cement remains weak, and the industry is facing an oversupply issue despite a decrease in clinker inventory [1] - A seasonal recovery in demand is expected from September to November, which, combined with accelerated capacity reduction efforts, may help balance supply and demand, potentially driving up cement prices [1]