作为公司小股东，五粮液股票已经连续跌了几年了，完美错过了这轮牛市。建议。一是公司每年拿出 100~200 亿，持续回购公司股票，推动股价回升。二是公司作为白酒行业的领导企业，联 投资者提问： 免责声明：本信息由新浪财经从公开信息中摘录，不构成任何投资建议；新浪财经不保证数据的准确性，内容仅供参考。 董秘回答(五 粮 液SZ000858)： 尊敬的投资者，感谢您的建议！ 查看更多董秘问答>> ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with PVC futures showing an upward trend. However, traders are primarily engaging in fixed-price transactions, leading to a weakening of the basis for actual transactions [1] - The mainstream cash price for PVC in East China is between 5000-5120 RMB/ton, while in South China it ranges from 5000-5110 RMB/ton. Prices in Hebei are between 4730-4870 RMB/ton, and in Shandong, they range from 4880-4960 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 74.97%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 77.52%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 68.31%, down by 1.92 percentage points [2] - As of July 17, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 6.10 days, a decrease of 1.29%. This reduction is attributed to high pre-sales and accelerated deliveries to both domestic and international markets [2] PVC Market Outlook - The market sentiment has significantly declined, with prices showing little fluctuation. The current supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal decrease in demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement remains low, and export orders are generally weak, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment has improved, causing a collective rebound in commodities. However, the short-term trading logic is more influenced by macro sentiment rather than the fundamentals of the PVC market, suggesting a cautious approach for the time being [3]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures market is boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. Spot transactions are average, and prices in Shandong and Guangdong have decreased. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory in most enterprises due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. Short - term macro disturbances increase trading risks, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see [2][4]. - The PVC futures market is also boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. The spot market has light transactions and little price fluctuation. It is in a slack season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Short - term trading is more influenced by macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Methanol - In the inland market, methanol prices fluctuate slightly. Supply may increase as the maintenance losses in July are high but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens, Iranian device production returns, and imports are expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and slightly decline in August. There may be inventory accumulation from July to August due to the combination of import recovery and olefin maintenance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Although some PX devices have load fluctuations, and terminal demand feedback is negative, PX supply is still expected to be tight, and PXN has some support. The short - term PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [10]. - PTA: The current PTA load is around 80% with new device launch expectations, and terminal demand is weak. Considering the tight PX supply and the strong domestic commodity market sentiment, the TA09 - TA01 spread can be rolled in a reverse way, and the PTA processing fee around 250 yuan/ton can be used for short - selling attempts [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices stopped unexpectedly in mid - July, leading to lower - than - expected supply increase and reduced import expectations. Short - term port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term EG2509 - P - 4300 put option seller can hold the position [10]. - Short - fiber: Although short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July, the overall supply and demand are weak in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [10]. - Bottle - chip: July is the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and there are expectations of improved demand. However, considering the high historical supply level, attention should be paid to whether the device production cuts increase and the downstream follow - up situation [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly, mainly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline on August 1st has not alleviated the macro - tension, and the threat of a 30% tariff may suppress oil demand. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainties are the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy, with support levels at [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [498, 505] for SC. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [13][14]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Policies to optimize the industrial structure and eliminate backward production capacity are considered beneficial to the urea industry. Export data shows weakness, and the market focuses on new policy support. The futures price stimulates the spot trading atmosphere, and the basis is expected to be repaired. In the short term, there is no significant reduction in demand and capacity. In the long term, the transformation of coal - based urea capacity structure may be promoted. Attention should be paid to export quota implementation, trading volume recovery, and market expectations [15]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - In terms of valuation, the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and both PE and PP have supply - demand contraction and inventory accumulation, with weak demand. PP maintenance has reached its peak, PE maintenance first increases and then decreases, and there are few import offers. Demand is expected to pick up seasonally at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment is warm, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see for short positions, while PE can be bought in the range [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July. Although there is news of production cuts from some devices, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene, and import expectations are high with high port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted by the strong domestic commodity market, but the rebound space is limited. The main contract BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [25]. - Styrene: The styrene industry has high - level operation with maintained profits. The basis of near - month contracts weakens, and the profits of some downstream industries are slightly repaired. The supply - demand situation is marginally improved but still weak in expectation, and port inventory continues to increase. Short - term styrene is boosted by the market, but the increase is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and high valuation. The EB09 is expected to operate in the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7,500 yuan/ton and short - selling opportunities. The EB - BZ spread can be shorted at high levels [25]. 3. Summaries by Catalog PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: Shandong 50% caustic soda price decreased by 2.2% from July 21st to July 22nd; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 0.8%. Some futures contracts such as SH2509 and V2509 also had significant price increases [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3% from July 11th to July 18th, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1% [2]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7% from July 11th to July 18th. The PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, and the total social inventory increased [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased by 2.18% and 1.91% respectively from July 21st to July 22nd. The basis and regional spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 1.28%, and port inventory increased by 9.92% [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates such as MTBE increased, while others like formaldehyde decreased [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and prices of other upstream products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China MX also had different degrees of decline [10]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX price increased by 0.1%, and PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed [10]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.2%, and futures prices increased slightly. PTA processing fees decreased [10]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG spot price increased by 0.4%, and futures prices also increased. MEG basis and spreads changed [10]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent oil price decreased by 0.90%, and WTI oil price increased by 0.52% on July 23rd compared to July 22nd. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.28%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 2.12%. Refined oil spreads also had different changes [13]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The synthetic ammonia price in Shandong increased by 1.54%, and some urea spot prices in different regions increased slightly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and factory inventory decreased, while port inventory increased [17]. - **Market Sentiment**: The futures market is affected by policies, and the spot market trading atmosphere is stimulated [17]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased, and spot prices of华东PP拉丝 and华北LLDPE膜料 also increased [20]. - **Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates changed [20]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 1.2% [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased by 0.5%, and the pure benzene basis and import profit changed [24]. - **Styrene**: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 0.8%, and styrene basis, spreads, and cash - flow changed [24]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Supply**: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - **Demand**: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - **Inventory**: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand**: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongnong Lihua plans to acquire at least 50% of Taizhou Agricultural Materials Co., Ltd., which will become a subsidiary after the acquisition [1] - Taizhou Agricultural Materials is a comprehensive agricultural service enterprise with a strong competitive advantage, covering a wide range of products and services in the agricultural sector [1] - The financial performance of Taizhou Agricultural Materials shows steady revenue growth, with revenues of 575 million yuan in 2022 and projected revenues of 625 million yuan in 2023 [1] Group 2 - The preliminary valuation for the acquisition is set at a maximum of 10 times the average audited net profit for the last three years, indicating a structured approach to the transaction [2] - Zhongnong Lihua's main business involves pesticide distribution and plant protection technology services, with a focus on providing crop health solutions to farmers [2] - The industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, leading to price declines and unstable procurement costs for companies, which may impact short-term performance [2] Group 3 - If the acquisition is successful, it will enhance Zhongnong Lihua's market understanding and customer engagement, particularly in the Zhejiang region [3]