投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围回暖，焦煤继续反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑走强，焦炭低位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 865.0 元/吨，周环比持平，折合期货 仓单成本约 834 元/吨。安全月活动期间，安监、环保、以及经营压力导致国内焦煤产量出现一 定收缩，同时进口煤价格倒挂也抑制了进口 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On June 19, the main coke contract closed at 1374 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.11%. The position of the main contract was 50,300 lots, a decrease of 1,539 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 1,401 yuan/ton. As positive factors accumulate, the previously pessimistic market sentiment has changed, and some short positions have taken profits and left the market. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate widely [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 19, the main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.13% intraday. The position of the main contract was 536,100 lots, a decrease of 13,631 lots from the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, down 2.8% week - on - week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 834 yuan/ton. During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has shrunk, and the price inversion of imported coal has also restricted imports. However, the long - term oversupply pattern has not been completely reversed, and there is still insufficient driving force for a significant increase in coal prices. Coking coal is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the near future [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Crude Steel Production**: In May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 52.49 million tons and Shandong with 30.3332 million tons [8]. - **Coking Coal Price in Jinzhong**: On June 19, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 940 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was priced at 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 5.22% from the end of last month, 24.85% from the end of last year, and 36.18% from the same period. The quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was priced at 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous week, 4.10% from the end of last month, 27.78% from the end of last year, and 40.61% from the same period [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was priced at 865 yuan/ton, down 2.81% from the previous week, 5.98% from the end of last month, 26.69% from the end of last year, and 45.94% from the same period. The Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was priced at 1,210 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous week, down 4.72% from the end of last month, 18.79% from the end of last year, and 43.46% from the same period. The Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was priced at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 3.10% from the end of last month, 18.30% from the end of last year, and 39.02% from the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The main coke contract closed at 1,374 yuan/ton, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 22,325 lots, a decrease of 4,342 lots, and a position of 50,347 lots, a decrease of 1,539 lots [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The main coking coal contract closed at 790.5 points, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 780,917 lots, a decrease of 53,292 lots, and a position of 536,104 lots, a decrease of 13,631 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [21][24][26]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate widely [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to supply and geopolitical developments [6][34].