国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：政策预期缓和，钢价小幅回落 2、铁矿石观点：情绪回落，震荡下修 3、焦煤焦炭周度观点：焦炭一轮提涨开启，震荡偏强 4、铁合金观点：市场情绪降温，交易回归基本面 Special report on Guotai Jun ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The logic of the market is the contradiction between macro and industry, with intensified long - short game [3] - Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement 15%. Tariff negotiations are going smoothly, and overseas macro is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates in the short term. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere of coal and coke is strong. The exchange has warned of risks and restricted positions, causing the supply - side trading to cool down in the short term, and the demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventory is low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Data - On July 25, 2025, the hot metal supply was 242.2 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons), scrap steel supply was 46.5 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons), scrap steel demand was 51.8 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.2 tons), and scrap steel inventory was 459.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 4.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.0 tons). For other steel products such as rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, detailed supply, demand, inventory, and price data are also provided [4] 2. Macro - level Information - Overseas: The US - Japan and US - EU tariffs are confirmed, and the short - term tendency is to maintain high - interest rates. There are contradictions in the US regarding employment, inflation, and manufacturing return, which may damage the US dollar's credit. Domestic: The exchange's risk warning and position restrictions have cooled down the supply - side trading in the short term. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting. There have been some real - estate favorable policies and debt - replacement measures in previous meetings [5][8][9] 3. Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3430 yuan/ton (+180), the main futures price was 3356 yuan/ton (+209), the main - contract basis was 74 yuan/ton (-29), and the 10 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton (+1). The spread is approaching the risk - free window, and reverse arbitrage should stop profiting and exit [14] - **Demand**: New - home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. Demand is in the off - season, and indicators such as cement shipments are seasonally declining [15][18][19] - **Inventory**: Steel inventory is at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [21] - **Production Profit**: The "anti - involution" trading has led to a slight expansion of profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 427 yuan/ton (+103), the main - contract profit was 331 yuan/ton (+60), and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 293 yuan/ton (+156) [27][31] 4. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (+160), the main futures price was 3507 yuan/ton (+197), the main - contract basis was - 7 yuan/ton (-37), and the 10 - 01 spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-1). Reverse arbitrage should stop profiting and exit [36] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the off - season. The internal - external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [37][40][41] - **Inventory and Production**: In the off - season, demand slightly exceeds expectations, and the inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production has declined [43][45] - **Production Profit**: The "anti - involution" trading has led to a slight expansion of profits. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 326 yuan/ton (+80), and the main - contract profit was 332 yuan/ton (+48) [47][50] 5. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the expanding cold - hot spread [51] 6. Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil are provided, including differences between cities such as Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [60][61][62] 7. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Detailed seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided [64][65]