Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has improved, leading to a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin, which is linked to an overall improvement in risk sentiment rather than specific catalysts in the crypto market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - QCP Capital suggests that the rise in Bitcoin is associated with improved risk sentiment in the market [1] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, which is influencing investor behavior [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is approaching a mid-term rebound target of $90,000, although it may face supply constraints related to ETFs [1] - The recent liquidation events have established a key support zone between $80,000 and $82,000 for Bitcoin [1] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to be driven by market risk appetite and macroeconomic catalysts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar is facing new pressures as a series of risks loom in August, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal turning negative for the first time, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards bearish expectations for the dollar [2] - Several macro catalysts are influencing this trend, including potential dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, unpredictability in Washington's policies, and ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence, alongside new tariff announcements and weak U.S. economic data [2] - Peter Kinsella, head of foreign exchange strategy at Union Bancaire Privee, suggests that the dollar may weaken as short-term interest rates peak while long-term rates steepen, with Trump's comments adding pressure on Fed Chair Powell and increasing uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of the dollar in July is viewed merely as a correction, with data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation indicating an increase in demand for dollar downside risk exposure, suggesting a return of bearish sentiment [5] - The volatility skew has decisively turned negative compared to the rebound in June, indicating that options traders are preparing for a continuation of the current downtrend for the dollar [5] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar remains locked in a bearish trend channel, with recent rebounds resembling a pattern seen earlier this year, where momentum fades after a roughly 2% increase [6] - The recent rebound has been capped by the 55-day moving average, a key resistance level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling, reinforcing the view that the dollar's strength is only temporary rather than indicative of a breakout [6] Group 4 - The dollar has maintained a downward trend throughout the year [7]