美元兑所有G-10货币走强，此前特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。 责任编辑：李肇孚 美元兑所有G-10货币走强，此前特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。 彭博美元即期指数日内上涨0.3%，此前一度上涨0.6%；本周累计下跌1%，月度跌幅达1.9%。 美国10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点，报4.25%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李肇孚 彭博美元即期指数日内上涨0.3%，此前一度上涨0.6%；本周累计下跌1%，月度跌幅达1.9%。 美国10年期国债收益率上涨2个基点，报4.25%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

美元正遭遇近四年来最严重的抛售潮，交易员押注美元将进一步走弱。彭博美元即期指数出现自去年4月宣布全面关税以来最陡峭的四日跌幅，投资者为 对冲更深度抛售支付的成本已创历史新高。 美元的下跌推动其他主要货币飙升至多年高位。欧元和英镑均升至约四年半以来的最强水平，日元在日本官员暗示可能干预支持本币后大幅反弹，正迎 来自去年8月全球套利交易崩盘以来的最佳三日涨势。 这轮跌势由多重因素驱动。美国政策的不可预测性——包括特朗普威胁接管格陵兰岛令欧洲盟友震惊，特朗普对美联储施压的风险，美国财政前景和债 务负担的担忧，以及政治极化，都在侵蚀市场情绪。摩根士丹利新兴市场货币策略主管James Lord表示，"非常规催化剂正在推动美元走弱"，政策不确 定性正在打击投资者对美国资产的兴趣。 日元干预预期升温 日元的飙升成为美元承压的关键因素。据交易员上周五透露，纽约联储联系金融机构查询日元汇率——这一初步步骤通常在干预前采取，重新引发市场 对协调货币干预的猜测。 DWS Americas固定收益主管George Catrambone表示，美联储官员对美元兑日元汇率的查询"进一步压低了美元"。日元涨至152.43。 彭博美元指数周二 ...

每经AI快讯，1月27日，彭博美元即期指数触及2022年3月以来最弱水平。 ...

随着期权市场对美元的看跌情绪升温，美元连续第三个交易日下跌，接近2022年以来的最低水平。在日 本首相高市早苗表示政府已准备好对金融市场异常波动采取行动后，日元迈向4月以来最佳两日表现。 彭博美元即期指数一度下跌0.6%，触及去年9月以来的最低水平，影响因素包括与加拿大的贸易紧张局 势，以及市场猜测美国可能对伊朗高级领导层发动打击；纽约午后交易中跌幅有所收窄。 下一个关键点位是9月17日低点1183.70；若跌破该水平，美元将创下自2022年3月以来的最弱表现。 押注美元走弱的溢价已升至纪录高位，显示期权交易员正越来越多地计入美国政府对美元走弱予以包容 甚至支持的风险。 美国政府部分停摆的风险也对美元构成压力。 "在美国国内政治紧张局势加剧的背景下，美国政府再度面临停摆风险，这可能成为当前打压美元的又 一不利因素，并促使投资者对冲或减少对美元资产的过度敞口，"加拿大丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne表示。 本周美国市场面临的关键事件风险包括1月美联储会议，以及总统唐纳德·特朗普可能宣布下一任美联储 主席人选。 美元/日元一度下跌1.5%，至153.31，为11月7日以来最低水平。 日本首相高市早 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds have preemptively exited bullish positions on the euro ahead of geopolitical tensions related to President Trump's threats of new tariffs on European countries regarding Greenland, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - According to the CFTC, leveraged funds shifted to a slight net short position on the euro for the first time since late November, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment [1] - The announcement of potential tariffs has heightened concerns about a renewed trade war, prompting investors to reassess the potential impact on European economic growth [1] - Following the tariff announcement, the euro initially fell by 0.2% before rebounding by 0.4% to $1.1641, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined by 0.2% [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators and Future Outlook - The shift in positioning coincides with a deterioration in technical indicators, as the euro's long-term momentum signal turned negative for the first time in nearly a year, ending a 43-week bullish trend [5] - Analysts suggest that while a reversal in momentum signals does not guarantee a sell-off, it often indicates significant downside risks if the signals persist [5] - Market strategists predict that the euro may test a support level of 1.1499 due to the ongoing tensions, with expectations that the trade dispute may escalate before it cools down [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Effects and Capital Flows - The geopolitical situation presents a double-edged sword; if it evolves into a broader issue affecting the dollar, the euro may receive some support [6] - There is a potential for capital repatriation that could limit the euro's downside, despite a weakening confidence in the euro's upward potential among traders [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise in the dollar index alongside U.S. Treasury yields, as investors await more data to assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. services PMI for December decreased to 52.5, while the composite PMI fell to 52.7 [2][10]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 4.18% [3][11]. Group 2: Bond Market Activity - Approximately 22 borrowers are expected to enter the investment-grade bond market, following a previous issuance of $37.1 billion [2][10]. - The underwriting department anticipates a total issuance of about $70 billion for the week [2][10]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by 0.2%, rebounding after falling below the 100-day moving average of approximately 1209 points [1][9]. - The euro/dollar exchange rate fell by 0.3% to 1.1687 ahead of the eurozone inflation report [3][11]. - The dollar/Swiss franc increased by 0.5% to 0.7958, while the dollar/Canadian dollar rose by 0.3% to 1.3806 [5][15]. - The pound/dollar decreased by 0.4% to 1.3495 after briefly reaching its highest level since September [6][14]. - The dollar/yen rose by 0.2% to 156.69 [7][15]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The implied volatility for the euro reached its highest level since the last European Central Bank meeting [4][12]. - Market makers are not adjusting positions based on customer trading flows or headlines, as they await key data such as the U.S. employment report [3][11].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.1% on the first trading day of the new year, marking its fifth consecutive day of increase, following a decline of 8.1% in 2025 [1][7] - The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December reported at 51.8, meeting expectations [8] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.5 basis points to 4.19% [9] Group 2 - The Australian dollar (AUD) appreciated by 0.2% to 0.6685 against the US dollar, outperforming other G-10 currencies, supported by improved risk appetite and rising silver and gold prices [9] - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, extending their best annual performance since 1979, while aluminum prices surpassed $3,000 per ton for the first time in over three years [9] - InTouch Capital Markets indicated that the strength of the Australian dollar in early 2026 suggests investors may be betting on a divergence in policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar experienced its largest annual decline in eight years, with a drop of approximately 8% in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, as investors anticipate further depreciation if the next Federal Reserve chair adopts a dovish stance [1][6]. - Market expectations reflect that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates at least twice next year, contrasting with the monetary policies of some developed countries, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [3][8]. - The euro has significantly appreciated against the dollar due to mild inflation and an upcoming wave of defense spending in Europe, leading to almost zero expectations for rate cuts in the Eurozone [3][8]. Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has been viewed as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, but there is also interest in former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and other candidates like Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman [5][10]. - The market has somewhat priced in the likelihood of Hassett being selected, but if Walsh or Waller were to take over, it might not lead to immediate rate cuts, which could be more favorable for the dollar [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has seen a slight increase alongside long-term U.S. Treasury yields, while G-10 currencies are experiencing narrow fluctuations amid light trading as the year comes to a close [1][8]. Currency Movements - The Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose by less than 0.1%, reversing earlier declines during the Asian and London trading sessions [2][9]. - The Euro/USD pair fell by 0.2% to 1.1750 [4][11]. - The GBP/USD pair continued its downward trend in the New York trading session, dropping 0.3% to 1.3468 [7][14]. - The USD/JPY pair increased by 0.2% to 156.45, while the AUD/USD rose by less than 0.1% to 0.6697, outperforming other G-10 currencies against the dollar [7][14]. - The USD/CAD remained stable at 1.3696 [7][14]. Economic Insights - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has declined approximately 8% this year, heading towards its largest annual drop since 2017 [3][10]. - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, noted that if the dollar strengthens further, it could target levels seen at the beginning of 2023, potentially paving the way for broader strength in regional currencies like the yen and won [3][10]. - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated that most officials believe further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation declines as expected over time [3][10]. Options Market Data - DTCC data shows significant option expiry levels at 1.1750 (2.28 billion euros) and 1.1800 (647 million euros) [5][12]. Central Bank Policy - The Swedish central bank's latest policy meeting minutes suggest that officials are confident that maintaining borrowing costs steady over the next year will support economic recovery and stabilize inflation near the 2% target [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has declined for the third consecutive day, indicating a weakening dollar trend as trading activity remains relatively light ahead of Christmas [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.1%, reaching its lowest level since October 3 [2][10]. - Traders have reinforced expectations of a weaker dollar for three consecutive days, with a key options indicator at its most bearish level in over three months [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, highlighting seasonal fluctuations in the data [4][12]. - Bloomberg's survey of economists had a median expectation of 224,000 initial claims [4][12]. Group 3: Currency Pairs - The USD/JPY pair fell by 0.2% to 155.88, pressured after Japan's Finance Minister indicated potential government intervention if the yen deviates from fundamentals [4][12]. - The USD/CAD pair decreased by 0.1% to 1.3675, marking its third consecutive day of decline and entering oversold territory [5][14]. - The USD/CHF pair rose slightly by less than 0.1% to 0.7881 [7][15]. - The EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.1% to 1.1780, making the euro the worst-performing G10 currency against the dollar [8][16].