来源：环球市场播报 美元和美国国债收益率双双下跌，因为美国11月ADP就业人数意外下降，巩固了市场对美联储下周再次 降息的预期。英镑在G-10货币中领涨。 一位驻欧洲的交易员表示，0.8785下方的大量止损被触发；预计0.8730下方还有更多止损。 英镑/美元涨约1.1%至1.3353，为5月以来最大涨幅。 另一位交易员称，在1.3300-20出现杠杆卖盘，1个月期期权的看跌程度为逾1个月来最低。 英国央行的Catherine Mann定于今天晚些时候发表讲话。 欧元/英镑跌0.7%至0.8737，为8月以来最大跌幅。 彭博美元即期指数跌0.4%，连续第二个交易日走低，早些时候触及10月30日以来低点。 ADP数据显示，11月私营部门就业人数减少3.2万，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，也是自2020年初以来第 二大降幅。 "ADP过去4个月中有3个月下降、过去6个月中有4个月下降，"Bank of Nassau 1982首席经济学家Win Thin表示。"虽然ADP与非农就业不会完全一致，但它能反映趋势，当前趋势明显走弱。" 美国10年期国债收益率下跌约3个基点至4.06%；纽约午后美股小幅走高。 随着美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that the US dollar may face a triple blow in the coming weeks, exacerbating its seasonal weakness [2][7] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The dollar may be negatively impacted by a US Supreme Court ruling declaring tariffs illegal and the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman [2][7] - If Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen could strengthen significantly against the dollar [2][10] - Deutsche Bank suggests that stronger economic data from other countries could also pressure the dollar as the year ends [2][7] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - December has historically been the worst month for the dollar, as traders often sell dollars to balance returns from other US assets [4][9] - Analysts predict that the dollar could decline by approximately 2% from current levels, potentially returning to third-quarter lows [4][9] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen by 1.5% this quarter, continuing a nearly 1% increase from July to September [5][9] Group 3: Implications of Potential Fed Leadership - The market anticipates that Hassett's leadership at the Federal Reserve could lead to a more dovish policy stance, increasing expectations for rate cuts next year [5][9] - If Hassett is appointed, it could push the dollar to fall below the four-year low of 1.19 against the euro [5][9]

彭博美元即期指数在乌克兰消息发布后跌至低点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index continues its upward trend, achieving the largest increase in two weeks [1] Group 1 - The index reflects a strong performance in the dollar, indicating potential shifts in currency markets [1] - The recent gains may influence investor sentiment and trading strategies in the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with expectations of potential rate cuts to support a weakening labor market [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is set to begin a two-day meeting, coinciding with signs of weakness in the employment market and increased pressure from President Donald Trump for rate cuts [1]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may restart rate cuts, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year being considered a new baseline scenario [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.1%, indicating market reactions as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision and guidance on future rate cuts [1]. - Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium last month have contributed to heightened market expectations for rate cuts [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar is facing new pressures as a series of risks loom in August, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal turning negative for the first time, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards bearish expectations for the dollar [2] - Several macro catalysts are influencing this trend, including potential dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, unpredictability in Washington's policies, and ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence, alongside new tariff announcements and weak U.S. economic data [2] - Peter Kinsella, head of foreign exchange strategy at Union Bancaire Privee, suggests that the dollar may weaken as short-term interest rates peak while long-term rates steepen, with Trump's comments adding pressure on Fed Chair Powell and increasing uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of the dollar in July is viewed merely as a correction, with data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation indicating an increase in demand for dollar downside risk exposure, suggesting a return of bearish sentiment [5] - The volatility skew has decisively turned negative compared to the rebound in June, indicating that options traders are preparing for a continuation of the current downtrend for the dollar [5] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar remains locked in a bearish trend channel, with recent rebounds resembling a pattern seen earlier this year, where momentum fades after a roughly 2% increase [6] - The recent rebound has been capped by the 55-day moving average, a key resistance level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling, reinforcing the view that the dollar's strength is only temporary rather than indicative of a breakout [6] Group 4 - The dollar has maintained a downward trend throughout the year [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights an unprecedented level of bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by concerns over Trump's erratic tariff policies and the expanding fiscal deficit [1][4][5] - The one-year risk reversal indicator, which measures the cost difference between buying and selling a currency, has dropped to -27 basis points, indicating a strong preference for put options over call options [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined over 6% year-to-date, marking the worst start to a year for the index in two decades [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly Trump's inconsistent tariff strategies, is a significant factor undermining confidence in the dollar and raising doubts about the predictability of US economic growth [4] - The worsening fiscal situation in the US, exacerbated by a large tax cut proposal, is expected to further increase the already high federal deficit, leading to concerns about the dollar's stability [5] - Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating from AAA, citing a substantial increase in government debt and interest payments over the past decade [5] Group 3 - The extreme bearish sentiment towards the dollar suggests potential outflows from US assets, prompting investors to consider increasing exposure to alternative currencies such as the euro and yen [5] - Some analysts caution that such extreme pessimism could signal a potential rebound for the dollar, as overly negative market sentiment may create opportunities for contrarian trading [5]