来源：滚动播报 彭博美元即期指数延续涨势，创两周来最大涨幅. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with expectations of potential rate cuts to support a weakening labor market [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is set to begin a two-day meeting, coinciding with signs of weakness in the employment market and increased pressure from President Donald Trump for rate cuts [1]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may restart rate cuts, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year being considered a new baseline scenario [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.1%, indicating market reactions as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision and guidance on future rate cuts [1]. - Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium last month have contributed to heightened market expectations for rate cuts [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the dollar is facing new pressures as a series of risks loom in August, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal turning negative for the first time, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards bearish expectations for the dollar [2] - Several macro catalysts are influencing this trend, including potential dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, unpredictability in Washington's policies, and ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence, alongside new tariff announcements and weak U.S. economic data [2] - Peter Kinsella, head of foreign exchange strategy at Union Bancaire Privee, suggests that the dollar may weaken as short-term interest rates peak while long-term rates steepen, with Trump's comments adding pressure on Fed Chair Powell and increasing uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of the dollar in July is viewed merely as a correction, with data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation indicating an increase in demand for dollar downside risk exposure, suggesting a return of bearish sentiment [5] - The volatility skew has decisively turned negative compared to the rebound in June, indicating that options traders are preparing for a continuation of the current downtrend for the dollar [5] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar remains locked in a bearish trend channel, with recent rebounds resembling a pattern seen earlier this year, where momentum fades after a roughly 2% increase [6] - The recent rebound has been capped by the 55-day moving average, a key resistance level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling, reinforcing the view that the dollar's strength is only temporary rather than indicative of a breakout [6] Group 4 - The dollar has maintained a downward trend throughout the year [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights an unprecedented level of bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by concerns over Trump's erratic tariff policies and the expanding fiscal deficit [1][4][5] - The one-year risk reversal indicator, which measures the cost difference between buying and selling a currency, has dropped to -27 basis points, indicating a strong preference for put options over call options [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined over 6% year-to-date, marking the worst start to a year for the index in two decades [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly Trump's inconsistent tariff strategies, is a significant factor undermining confidence in the dollar and raising doubts about the predictability of US economic growth [4] - The worsening fiscal situation in the US, exacerbated by a large tax cut proposal, is expected to further increase the already high federal deficit, leading to concerns about the dollar's stability [5] - Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating from AAA, citing a substantial increase in government debt and interest payments over the past decade [5] Group 3 - The extreme bearish sentiment towards the dollar suggests potential outflows from US assets, prompting investors to consider increasing exposure to alternative currencies such as the euro and yen [5] - Some analysts caution that such extreme pessimism could signal a potential rebound for the dollar, as overly negative market sentiment may create opportunities for contrarian trading [5]