Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the price may face pressure [7]. - The coke market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The coking coal sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The ferroalloy supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is expected to operate within a range [18]. Group 3: Summaries by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The urban work conference was bearish as it didn't release stimulus signals and confirmed the end of the real - estate incremental era. Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, with total inventory slightly down, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The transaction logic has shifted from industrial to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it will operate within the range of [3090, 3130] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the urban work conference, market sentiment declined, but later political bureau meetings may provide stimulus. It will operate within the range of [3230, 3270] [1][5]. Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot - metal production, which is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply side has an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments to come. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral - weak. The urban meeting was below expectations, and the short - term market may return to fundamental trading. Short - term observation is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the medium term. The price range is [750, 780] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increase occurred, and coking profit slightly improved. The fundamentals changed little. Independent coking enterprise production declined recently, but steel - mill coking production remained high. High hot - metal production guaranteed raw - material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of last year. Some shut - down mines will resume production in July, increasing supply later. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and spot trading improved. Market sentiment improved overall. Short - term macro - expectations cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and inventory pressure is not significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but electricity costs in many production areas have decreased, and some mines' far - month quotes have slightly dropped, so there is an expectation of cost loosening. Although hot - metal production is at a high level, actual demand may decline in the off - season. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. The price range is [5690, 5880] [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand. After the reduction of power prices in production areas, the cost line has further decreased. Factory inventory is relatively high, and some factories plan to resume production, while the downstream off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to operate within the range of [5400, 5590] [1][20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: Bullish [1][14][16] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, and expectations have improved. The supply - demand situation varies among different varieties, with some showing signs of the off - season, while others maintain a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level, and short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8][9] - The coke and coking coal markets have seen an improvement in market sentiment, with short - term bullish trends [1][12][16] - The ferroalloy market is dominated by market sentiment, with manganese silicon and silicon iron expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][18][19] 3. Summary by Variety Steel a. Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.4 million tons, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - Market sentiment: Driven by de - capacity and anti - involution policies, market sentiment has strengthened, and expectations have improved [1][4][5] - Price range: [3110, 3150] [1] b. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced, with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market sentiment: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas, leading to a bullish trend in trading based on sentiment and expectations [1][5] - Price range: [3250, 3290] [1] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: On the demand side, hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing, and both shipments and arrivals will increase in the future. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mills are replenishing stocks out of rigid demand, resulting in a neutral supply - demand structure [1][8] - Market sentiment: The anti - involution policy has been mentioned again. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level [1][8][9] - Price range: [750, 785] [1] Coke - Supply - demand: The production of independent coke enterprises has declined recently, but the production of steel mills' coke enterprises remains high. The high absolute level of hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][12] - Market sentiment: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and the market is oscillating with a bullish trend [1][12][13] - Price range: [1510, 1540] [1] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][16] - Market sentiment: Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, with a short - term bullish trend [1][16][17] - Price range: [900, 930] [1] Ferroalloys a. Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports prices, but there are expectations of cost loosening due to the decline in electricity costs in multiple production areas and the slight drop in the far - month quotes of some mines. The actual demand may be under pressure as the off - season approaches [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating with a bullish trend. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][19][20] - Price range: [5685, 5880] [1] b. Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand have decreased. After the reduction of electricity prices in production areas, the cost line has further declined. The factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories have plans to resume production, while the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][19][20] - Price range: [5390, 5580] [1]