1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [2]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [2]. - In the short term, the market will experience volatile consolidation, while in the long term, the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trend Review - Futures market: This week, the main RB2510 rebar contract retraced, closing at 3,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 89 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.816 million lots, a decrease of 90,000 lots. The main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract slightly retraced, closing at 33,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.4339 million lots, a decrease of 73,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved lower. As of July 31, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 3,270 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved lower. As of July 31, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,370 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main RB2510 rebar contract compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 165 yuan/ton, a change of +91 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 40 yuan/ton, a change of +57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the RB2601 - RB2510 spread was 56 yuan/ton, a change of +13 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - HC2510 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the HC2510 - RB2510 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a change of +34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 136 yuan/ton, a change of +17 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and 2.18 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from last week but an increase of 40,900 tons compared with last year [20]. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 867,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 450 tons. The increase was mainly in cold - and hot - rolled coils, while the output of other varieties decreased to varying degrees [20]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [20]. 3.2.2 Demand - Recently, the State Council approved the construction of a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating good prospects for future infrastructure steel demand. - On the 31st, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations ended, and both sides agreed to extend the tariff truce period originally due to expire on August 12 by 90 days. The tariffs on China remained the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the path for the implementation of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar, and this pattern is expected to continue for some time due to the arrival of the seasonal off - season for building materials [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 942,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,900 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 409,520 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.35189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,900 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream, continuing a certain de - stocking trend [36]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [47]. - With the recovery of profits, electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to increase production and resume production, resulting in a significant increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization rate. However, due to poor steel sales, the overall recovery amplitude narrowed. As of July 30, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country increased by 2.19% to 74.21%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.56% to 57.05%, both reaching an eight - week high [47]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - Affected by domestic policies this week, the prices of major raw materials fluctuated significantly. The price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3,097 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton [56]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [60]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [60].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪转变，钢矿弱势下行 核心观点 热轧卷板：主力期价转弱下行，录得 2.30%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均走弱，基本面有所转弱，库存小幅累库，但整体矛 盾不大，且成本抬升明显，预计热卷价格维持高位震荡运行态势，关注 海外风险变化。 铁矿石：主力期价延续下行，录得 1.75%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，乐观情绪趋弱，高估值矿价震荡回落，相对利好则是当下供弱需强 局面下矿石基本面表现尚可，下行空间受限，产业逻辑主导下预计矿价 延续高位调整态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Zhuque Fund's Chen Fei emphasizes the importance of safety margins and clear industry trends, focusing on companies with "business extension lines" under a secure margin [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Fei's investment focus is on companies in the growth and optimization phases of their industry lifecycle, identifying three stages: growth, intensified competition, and optimization [2] - The strategy includes investing in "Mount Everest-type" companies with significant potential and "tomorrow's stars" that are positioned in key industries [2] - The emphasis is on the alignment with industry logic and the importance of individual stock safety margins [2] Group 2: Safety Margin Framework - The safety margin framework consists of three layers: static safety margin, dynamic safety margin, and negative list management [3] - The static safety margin involves assessing undervalued core assets and hidden asset values such as patents and brand barriers [3] - The dynamic safety margin considers companies with high growth potential that can justify current valuations through future performance [3] - Negative list management involves avoiding companies with high debt levels and unclear business models [3] Group 3: Sector Focus - Chen Fei has increased investment in SMIC, holding 8.24% of shares by Q2 2024, when the stock's PB was between 0.6 and 0.7 [3] - The AI sector is expected to continue driving industry growth, with a focus on cloud-related hardware and software companies [4] - The innovative drug sector is gaining attention as China becomes a major hub for drug development, with significant advancements in dual antibodies and ADCs [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the price may face pressure [7]. - The coke market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The coking coal sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The ferroalloy supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is expected to operate within a range [18]. Group 3: Summaries by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The urban work conference was bearish as it didn't release stimulus signals and confirmed the end of the real - estate incremental era. Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, with total inventory slightly down, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The transaction logic has shifted from industrial to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it will operate within the range of [3090, 3130] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the urban work conference, market sentiment declined, but later political bureau meetings may provide stimulus. It will operate within the range of [3230, 3270] [1][5]. Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot - metal production, which is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply side has an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments to come. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral - weak. The urban meeting was below expectations, and the short - term market may return to fundamental trading. Short - term observation is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the medium term. The price range is [750, 780] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increase occurred, and coking profit slightly improved. The fundamentals changed little. Independent coking enterprise production declined recently, but steel - mill coking production remained high. High hot - metal production guaranteed raw - material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of last year. Some shut - down mines will resume production in July, increasing supply later. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and spot trading improved. Market sentiment improved overall. Short - term macro - expectations cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and inventory pressure is not significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but electricity costs in many production areas have decreased, and some mines' far - month quotes have slightly dropped, so there is an expectation of cost loosening. Although hot - metal production is at a high level, actual demand may decline in the off - season. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. The price range is [5690, 5880] [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand. After the reduction of power prices in production areas, the cost line has further decreased. Factory inventory is relatively high, and some factories plan to resume production, while the downstream off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to operate within the range of [5400, 5590] [1][20][21].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with strong performance in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, steel, cement, and coal, while communication equipment, semiconductors, aerospace, and consumer electronics lagged behind [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed signs of adjustment, with the majority of Federal Reserve members expecting a rate cut later this year, while the U.S. economy remains robust [2] - Domestic manufacturing PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, reflecting resilience in the Chinese economy [2] - Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to significantly impact individual stock performance, reinforcing the importance of earnings in market dynamics [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance on the market, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are current market issues such as the inverted price difference between fat pigs in the north and south, a decrease in group piglet sales, and a slight increase in pen pressure in May, price increases have exceeded expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions have not reached the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, and capital interference has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan's live pig spot is 15,000 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 14,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton in Guangdong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Trading Logic**: The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. Continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [3] - **Contract Price Ranges**: The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data | Contract | Volume (compared to the previous day) | Open Interest (compared to yesterday) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 | 3,265 (-1,782) | 28,942 (-950) | | Live Pig 2509 | 13,932 (-5,014) | 71,262 (-92) | | Live Pig 2511 | 1,876 (-2,431) | 29,684 (+74) | [3] 3.4 Futures Price Difference Data | Price Difference Type | Price Difference Value | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 Basis | 35 | - | | Live Pig 2509 Basis | 295 | - | | Live Pig 2511 Basis | 5 | - | | Live Pig 7 - 9 Spread | 1,425 | -50 | | Live Pig 9 - 11 Spread | 1,115 | -15 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, there is still a willingness for second - round fattening, but the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The near - term contradiction is not in the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviating from the normal state. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase at the end of May, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50; Sichuan spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2507 is 13,495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2509 is 13,925 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2511 is 13,625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,294 lots, a decrease of 213 from the previous day, and the open interest is 30,668 lots, a decrease of 140 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 26,531 lots, an increase of 4,441 from the previous day, and the open interest is 71,319 lots, a decrease of 2,087 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 3,613 lots, an increase of 111 from the previous day, and the open interest is 29,156 lots, a decrease of 331 from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,505 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 110; the 7 - 9 spread of pig is - 430 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the 9 - 11 spread of pig is 300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

2025 年 5 月 9 日 生猪：关注远月套利 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 15050 | 50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 14750 | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 15440 | -150 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | | 13535 | 35 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | | 13985 | 25 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 13605 | 10 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: May 8, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was over half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, and the spot price changed little. Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted in both the north and the south, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The macro sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,750 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,590 yuan/ton [3] Futures Prices - Live hog 2507: 13,535 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509: 13,985 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511: 13,605 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2507: trading volume is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 lots from the previous day; open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2509: trading volume is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 lots from the previous day; open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2511: trading volume is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 lots from the previous day; open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - Live hog 2507 basis: 1,465 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509 basis: 1,015 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511 basis: 1,395 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 7 - 9 spread: - 450 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 9 - 11 spread: 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Report Introduction - The report focuses on the pig industry with a research date of May 7, 2025, and emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - In April, the procurement progress of secondary fattening was more than half - completed, and the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down. During the holiday, the reduction of group sales was obvious, and the change in spot prices was small. Currently, the price spreads between fat and lean pigs in the north and south are inverted, and the group's piglet sales have decreased. In May, the pen pressure has increased slightly, and a phased de - stocking may start. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the capital disturbance has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 14,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton; and in Guangdong, it is 15,590 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 are 13,445 yuan/ton, 13,910 yuan/ton, and 13,530 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 5 yuan/ton, - 20 yuan/ton, and - 80 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 is 5,632 lots, 23,428 lots, and 4,524 lots respectively, with decreases of 1,232 lots, 15,573 lots, and 2,279 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest is 31,498 lots, 69,728 lots, and 27,719 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,022 lots, - 3,220 lots, and an increase of 103 lots compared to the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 is 1,555 yuan/ton, 1,090 yuan/ton, and 1,470 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 255 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 330 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 465 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4] Market Logic - The trading logic has shifted to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]